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Integrated framewo, 's relates U.S. energy demand, production and prices from 1950 - 2030;

Structural simulatio 1 approach explicitly represents key energy market mechanisms: energy investments, production, conversion technologies, end-use service demand and conservation.

Track Record:

Subjected to extensive peer review; Continually improved and updated; Used for the National Energy Plans since 1979; Integrating model for the 1991 National Energy Strategy; Used for numerous energy policy analyses.

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BASE CASE DEVELOPMENT

Purpose

best point estimate of an uncertain future; credible and consistent "point of departure" for option analysis.

Methodology

calibration to EIA's 1993 Annual Energy Outlook;

the Energy Information Agency (EIA) is an independent

statistical agency of DOE; incorporation of assumptions from CEA, DOE, and EPA to reflect policies already planned.

Two base cases were created

one with policies in place through FY92; one including implementation of the 1992 Energy Policy Act, the Btu tax and the Clinton economic package; this base case is the starting point for the August plan development.

IDEAS

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BASE CASE UNCERTAINTY

IDEAS projections of energy sector carbon emissions lie near the middle of
the range of estimates from other widely used models. These estimates span
a range of more than 100 million metric tons in the year 2000.

All projections, however, depend heavily on assumptions made regarding
economic growth and energy price trends. Differences between actual and
assumed trends can have a major impact in emissions levels.

Earlier sensitivity analyses using IDEAS showed that projected
carbon emissions in 2000 might be higher/lower by:

65 MMT (about a 50 percent increase/decrease in pro-
jected carbon emissions growth over the decade) if the
annual economic growth projection is increased/de-
creased by 0.75 percent;
18 MMT if oil prices decline/rise 1 percent annually
instead of increasing/decreasing 4 percent annually.

These uncertainties complicate the task of developing a plan that meets the
President's pledge. Periodic review and updating will be needed over time.

IDEAS

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