CONTENTS CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF WITNESSES EMERGING THREATS TO VITAL U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS MARCH 5, 1999 Page Ellsworth, Hon. Robert F., Former Deputy Secretary of Defense 7 15 Kirkpatrick, Hon. Jeane J., Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Krepinevich, Dr. Andrew F., Jr., Executive Director, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments INFORMATION WARFARE AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION 17 21 MARCH 16, 1999 Marsh, Gen. Robert T., USAF (Ret.), Former Chairman, President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection Vatis, Michael A., Deputy Assistant Director and Chief, National Infrastructure Protection Center, Federal Bureau of Investigation Money, Arthur L., Senior Civilian Official, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence POLICIES AND PROGRAMS TO COMBAT TERRORISM MARCH 22, 1999 Sheridan, Brian E., Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Spe- 125 139 Cragin, Charles L., Principal Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs 146 THE PROLIFERATION THREAT AND THE PROGRESS AND POLICIES OF THE MARCH 23, 1999 Lugar, Hon. Richard G., U.S. Senator from Indiana 173 Joseph, Ambassador Robert G., Director, Counterproliferation Center, National Defense University 190 Alibek, Ken, M.D., Program Manager, Battelle Memorial Institute 194 Kay, David A., Ph.D., Director, Center for Counterterrorism, Science Applications International Corporation 197 Hecker, Siegfried S., Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratories 202 214 Davis, Jay, Ph.D., Director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency 228 Gottemoeller, Rose E., Ph.D., Director, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, U.S. Department of Energy 232 THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM APRIL 20, 1999 Gansler, Jacques S., Ph.D., Under Secretary of Defense, Science and Tech- Page 253 299 Buchanan, Dr. H. Lee, III, Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) 313 Martin, Lt. Gen. Gregory S., USAF, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Acquisition 326 Fernandez, Frank, Ph.D., Director, Defense Advanced Research Projects 335 THE THREAT OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND THE ROLE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE IN THE NATION'S WAR ON DRUGS APRIL 27, 1999 McCaffrey, Gen. Barry R., USA (Retired), Director, Office of National Drug 376 Wilhelm, Gen. Charles E., USMC, Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Southern Command 424 Sheridan, Brian E., Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict 428 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION FOR APPROPRIATIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2000 AND THE FUTURE YEARS DEFENSE PROGRAM FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 1999 U.S. SENATE, SUBCOMMITTEE ON EMERGING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC. EMERGING THREATS TO VITAL U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:35 a.m. in room SR-222, Russell Senate Office Building, Senator Pat Roberts (chairman of the subcommittee) presiding. Committee members present: Senators Roberts, Warner, Snowe, Bingaman, and Byrd. Committee staff members present: Judith A. Ansley, deputy staff director, and Todd L. Payne, special assistant. Professional staff members present: John R. Barnes, Edward H. Edens, IV, Pamela L. Farrell, Paul M. Longsworth, Joseph T. Sixeas, Cord A. Sterling, Eric H. Thoemmes, and Lani Kass. Minority staff members present: Richard D. DeBobes, minority counsel, Daniel J. Cox, Jr., professional staff member, and Madelyn R. Creedon, minority counsel. Staff assistant present: Shawn H. Edwards. Committee members' assistants present: Robert Alan McCurry and James Beauchamp, assistants to Senator Roberts, G. Wayne Glass and James Jennings, assistants to Senator Bingaman, and Frederick M. Downey, assistant to Senator Lieberman. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PAT ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN Senator ROBERTS. The first session of the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities is now in session. It is both an honor and a privilege to chair this first meeting of the newly established Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities. I welcome my distinguished colleague and our expert witnesses. Thank you all for joining me this morning as we begin our effort to identify and prioritize the threats to this Nation's security and its well-being. I have a statement that I would like to read. I will then certainly recognize our distinguished Ranking Member, my friend and colleague from New Mexico, and then we will get to the panel. I would like to use this opportunity first to extend special thanks to Senator Warner of Virginia, our Chairman of the Full Committee, for his vision and his foresight. Without his leadership and guidance, this subcommittee probably would have not been created, with U.S. national security policy continuing to drift among the shoals of an increasingly more dangerous environment, lurching from crises to crises and reacting to world events rather than striving to shape them to promote and defend our own national interest. A great deal of credit should also go to Senator Lieberman of Connecticut and our former colleague, Senator Coats, as well as all members of the committee who have a strong interest. The Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities was established to provide a strategic focus for the Department of Defense's having to encounter new and emerging challenges to vital national security interests. Through a series of hearings and detailed oversight of budget accounts, this subcommittee will undoubtedly highlight such emerging threats as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, international terrorism that would be directed at our U.S. targets at home and abroad, information operations, or cyber attacks, and crime and narco-trafficking. The subcommittee will also seek to identify the capabilities we need to deter and, if necessary, to combat these and other perils. The purpose of this first hearing is to receive your assessment of the most important national security challenges that are facing the United States both now and in the foreseeable future. Few strategic issues are more complex or are more important, yet to obtain the objectives that we have set for this subcommittee we need to do more than simply try to gain a better understanding of the assorted threats looming on the horizon. We need to establish a clear sense of priorities and a coherent direction as we seek to allocate scarce resources and guide the Nation and its armed forces into the next century. Given the long lead times in weapons acquisition and in the inherently slow pace of doctrinal and conceptual change, decisions we make today will have a real tremendous impact on our force structure and on our military capabilities for many years to come. This places a special premium on getting it right. Let me share with you some of my own thoughts on this critical subject. National security is always considered in relation to a threat, be it external or internal, real or perceived, or present or future. The nature of the threat may be ambiguous or arguable. The policies may be formulated to deter, to confront, to compete with, or to contain the threat. These policies may or may not prove to be appropriate or effective, but they are always designed with a threat in mind. Therefore, it seems to me a clearly articulated threat assessment serves as a strategic vector, a filter, if you will, focusing policy, guiding action, and shaping the national security agenda. The opposite is equally true. Absent a clear concept of what the threat is, it is exceedingly difficult to determine which interests are |