29 GENERAL

226

(DOE/ES-0003) History of the Atomic Energy Commission. Buck, A.L. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Management and Administration, Washington, DC. Office of the Executive Secretary). Aug 1982. 29p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE83000892.

This pamphlet traces the history of the Atomic Energy Commission's twenty-eight year stewardship of the Nation's nuclear energy program, from the signing of the Atomic Energy Act on August 1, 1946, to the signing of the Energy Reorganization Act on October 11, 1974. The Commission's early concentration on the military atom produced sophisticated nuclear weapons for the Nation's defense and made possible the creation of a fleet of nuclear submarines and surface ships. Extensive research in the nuclear sciences resulted in the widespread application of nuclear technology for scientific, medical and industrial purposes, while the passage of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 made possible the development of a nuclear industry, and enabled the United States to share the new technology with other nations.

227

(UCRL-52540-Rev.2)

Energy and Resource Planning report abstracts. Borg, I.Y. (ed.). (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)). 4 Nov 1981. Contract W7405-ENG-48. 48p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE82005858.

Chronologically arranged abstracts of reports written by the Energy and Resource Planning Group at LLL are presented, and are arranged according to the following seven subject categories: energy; foreign energy developments; energy modeling; resources and resource development; transportation; technology applications; and biological resources/fuels. (LCL)

228

Energy planning in India. Venu, S. (Institute for Financial Management and Research, Madras, (India)). Long Range Planning; 15: No. 3, 146-151(Jun 1982).

A review is presented of India's planning for energy requirements in coal, oil, gas and nuclear power and in the fields of solar energy and the extension of forest areas to provide firewood. Coal and natural gas supplies will be increased to reduce oil demand. There will be an accelerated programme of development of bio-gas, an exploration of solar energy potential and extensive afforestation to provide additional energy sources.

229 Study of energy education on the elementary level in Colorado: an evaluation of Energy and Man's Environment. Coffey, J.M. Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado (1981). 317p. University Microfilms Order No.82-01,503.

Thesis (Ph. D.).

The purpose of this research was to evaluate a curriculum designed to improve energy education. The curriculum selected, Energy and Man's Environment (EME), was implemented in a typical Colorado school district. Approximately 530 fifth graders participated in the study, from ten schools, five control and five experimental. The program lasted for nine weeks, taking approximately three and one third hours of science time each week. Teachers in the experimental group attended twenty hours of inservice. This research examined the affective and cognitive effects of the EME curriculum on the students and considered the affective results of the EME program on teachers of the experimental and control groups. The two major conclusions of the research were: (1) Students who participate in a conscientiously implemented Energy and Man's Environment program can expect to raise their energy literacy level. (2) Students who participate in a conscientiously imple

mented Energy and Man's Environment program can expect to maintain their general cognitive gains for at least three months after the program.

2901 Energy Analysis And Modeling

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 267, 445, 579, 604

230

(DOE/CS/65004-T1) Urban energy strategies for the eighties: a self-help guide for local decision-makers. (Cooper Union Research Foundation, New York (USA)). Jun 1982. Contract FG01-80CS65004. 70p. NTIS, PC A04/ MF A01. Order Number DE83000153.

This report, while cognizant of the differences in loal energy situations around the country, sets forth broadly-defined strategies and recommendations for action. Local policy-makers can select and refine these strategies so as to suit the particular needs of their communities. Issues discussed are: financing local projects; energy supply and production; energy to spur economic development in low-income communities; relations with utility companies; energy office and its role; energy data base and the planning process; nonfinancial incentives to promote energy efficiency; contingency planning for energy emergencies; and energy and transportation. (PSB)

231

(DOE/EIA/06313-T2) Development of demand models for energy use in the commercial sector at the state level. CRA report No. 431. (Charles River Associates, Inc., Boston, MA (USA)). May 1980. Contract AC01-78EI06313. 171p. NTIS, PC A08/MF A01. Order Number DE83002759.

Portions of document are illegible.

State-level models of commercial sector energy demand are presented. In addition to forecasting the effects on demand of commercial activity and energy prices, the model is capable of analyzing the effects of a wide range of energy-conservation policies. This model structure is described in Chapter 1. Individual tasks required in the implementation at the state level are described in the second chapter. The third chapter presents baseline forecasts of the statelevel model. An evaluation of forecasting accuracy is presented for ten states: one in each federal region. The state-level forecasts use 1970 as a base year; therefore, fuel-use estimates for the 1971 to 1977 period are compared to DOE data covering the same years as a form of model validation. Use of the model in analyzing energyconservation policies is discussed. The effects of major provisions of the National Energy Act on a sample state's (Pennsylvania) energy use are forecast both individually and in combination in order to demonstrate the CEDM's use for policy analysis. (PSB)

232

(DOE/PE/02835-T1) Imperfect competition in the international energy market: a computerized Nash-Cournot model. Salant, S.W. (ICF, Inc., Washington, DC (USA)). May 1979. Contract AC01-78PE02835. 243p. NTIS, PC A11/MF A01. Order Number DE83000838. Portions of document are illegible.

This report describes two computerized models of the international energy market. Price and extraction paths for major energy resources are forecasted as the equilibrium solution to a Nash non-cooperative, non-zero-sum differential game. Appendices deal with: existence of equilibrium; uniqueness of equilibrium and convergence of algorithms; impact of reduced US demand upon world oil prices; marginal-cost curves for world resources in oil,

gas, and coal; specification of demand system; and program listings of single and multi-product models. (PSB)

233

(EPRI-RA-2350-SR) Progress on significant R and D projects. (Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA). Research Applications Program). Aug 1982. 320p. NTIS, PC A14/MF A01. Order Number DE83900262.

This report updates the status of 32 large projects having EPRI authorizations of $5 million or more. It also describes 86 smaller projects that have EPRI authorizations of less than $5 million and that have a high likelihood of producing a utility-useful new near-term accomplishment within the next two years. Finally, there are 45 examples of analytical, experimental and bench-scale projects that were influential in confirming or redirecting EPRI's research program. These examples cover the entire spectrum of electric R and D: (1) fuel processing, (2) electric power generation, (3) transmission and distribution, (4) energy storage and management, (5) energy analysis, and (6) environmental assessment and control.

Revisions of the UK EFOM 12C database are described. This is the central database for the case studies on Escalating Supply Rationing carried out during 1980. The data are organized into 17 subsystems consisting of 4 primary energy-supply subsystems, 4 intermediate subsystems and 9 energy subsystems. Technological, cost, and constraint data are summarized. A complementary overview of the data is provided by the annotated Technological Reference Energy Sub-System (TRESS) diagrams for each subsystem. Each subsystem is discussed in detail alphabetically within the three groups noted above.

Report to the Congress.

GAO demonstrates that net energy analysis is methodologically feasible to perform and that its performance is useful to policymakers in the Congress and DOE because (1) it offers them a basis for minimizing total energy use and for conserving domestic energy resources in the production of new energy products, (2) it guarantees them the opportunity to consider the net energy yields of proposed new energy technologies independent of economic risk questions, (3) it permits them to compare the net energy yields of specific plants and processes as well as their relative impacts on existing domestic resources and on imported premium fuel requirements, and (4) it gives them a method for deciding the introduction rates of energy-intensive technologies so as to avoid the creation of large energy deficits. Recommendations are included.

236

(NP-3900347) World energy outlook: summary and conclusions. (International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)). 1982. 39p. Director of Information, OECD, 2,rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Order Number DE83900347.

The current outlook for short-term stability in energy markets and the oil market in particular is deceptive because signals in today's surplus oil market do not reflect the underlying medium and long-term trends. In fact, these trends point to recurrent oil supply stringency later in the 1980s and thus to the need for constant attention to energy policy as a means of avoiding severe economic constraints. This study concludes that policies and economic mechanisms conducive to market equilibrium are currently in place. Effective implementation of energy policies adopted after 1973, together with recent sharp oil price rises, has already generated gains in both energy efficiency and substitution of other fuels for oil. Evidence for this structural change may be seen in the declining inputs

of both energy and oil per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 1980, for example, real GDP in the OECD was 19% higher than in 1973, but energy consumption had grown by only 4% and oil use was even 3% below 1973 levels. But present developments in energy and oil consumption make achievements in structural change appear bigger than may be warranted by the underlying trend. To a large extent, recent demand reductions are also due to the combined effects of important stock draws, changing weather conditions and, more importantly, low economic growth affecting energy-intensive industries in particular. Rather than eliminating the energy problem, these volatile factors may conceal its long-term

A study was made of the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the long-range, energy-economy model LEAP. The code is a large scale, long-range (50 year) equilibrium model of energy supply and demand in the US economy used for government and industrial forecasting. The study focused on the two features which distinguish LEAP from other equilibrium models the treatment of product allocation and basic conversion of materials into an energy end product. Both allocation and conversion processes are modeled in a behavioral fashion which differs from classical economic paradigms. The results of the study indicate that while LEAP contains desirable behavioral features, these same features can give rise to non-uniqueness in the solution of allocation and conversion process equations. Conditions under which existence and uniqueness of solutions might not occur are developed in detail and their impact in practical applications are discussed.

238

(ORNL/TM-8178) Evaluation of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model. Oblow, E.M. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)). Oct 1982. Contract W-7405-ENG-26. 31p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE83001706.

An evaluation was made of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model. Conversion processes are the main modeling subunit in LEAP used to represent energy conversion industries and are supposedly based on the classical economic theory of the firm. The study arose out of questions about uniqueness and existence of LEAP solutions and their relation to classical equilibrium economic theory. An analysis of classical theory and LEAP model equations was made to determine their exact relationship. The conclusions drawn from this analysis were that LEAP theory is not consistent with the classical theory of the firm. Specifically, the capacity factor formalism used by LEAP does not support a classical interpretation in terms of a technological production function for energy conversion processes. The economic implications of this inconsistency are suboptimal process operation and short term negative profits in years where plant operation should be terminated. A new capacity factor formalism, which retains the behavioral features of the original model, is proposed to resolve these discrepancies.

239

Measuring the validity and performance of energy models. Labys, W.C. (West Virginia Univ., Morgantown). Energy Economics; 4: No. 3, 159-168(Jul 1982).

This paper is concerned with approaches to validating and judging the performance of energy models. There has been a proliferation of models of all sorts. These models not only attempt to deal with many different aspects of industry and market behavior but also involve widely different modeling methodologies. Several attempts have been made to classify and to evaluate these methodological approaches; they are not repeated here. Rather, this paper focuses on criteria that are quantitative and rigorous for determining the validity of a model. Different validation criteria are suggested for econometric time-series models, input-output models, and mathematical programming models. Finally, an appeal is made for including validation measures in future energy-modeling studies. 71 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

240

Energy forecasting: the science of the art. Herbert, J. Energy Economics; 4: No. 3, 208-211(Jul 1982).

An awareness of the weaknesses of exclusion, aggregation, range, reversibility, and time lag pointed out by S. Koreisha in an earlier issue can help users to improve their forecasting if they document and assess their information. Forecasting is an evolving, but well-founded science that can be used to interpret how complex relationships might hold as a result of changing forces if the information is properly documented. Koreisha's response concurs with the need for adequate documentation, but suggests that duplication to prove accuracy is not as valued in the social as in the physical sciences. He questions whether better documentation will lead to better formulation since the critical role of the model is providing insights for policymakers. 14 references. (DCK)

241

Perspectives on resource-policy modeling: energy and minerals. Amit, R.; Avriel, M. (eds.). Cambridge, MA; Ballinger Publishing Co. (1982). 446p.

Thirteen essays and a panel discussion on resource-policy modeling demonstrate the degree to which economic modeling is being applied to energy decision making. Based on the International Seminar on Resource Policy Modeling held in Herzlia, Israel, in December 1980, the essays include: (1) a description and analysis of energy-economy interactions, process analysis, econometric estimation, and input-output techniques, with examples from the US, Canada, and Israel; (2) demand estimation, pricing policies, and investment planning of the electricity sector; (3) a description and applications of mineral-supply models covering mineral-supply functions, resource depletion, cost of minerals, and problems concerning government regulations of the US coal industry; and (4) an overview of the energy-related decision-making process, including a discussion of the role of models and modelers in policy formulation. 212 references, 90 figures, 11 tables.

242

Energy cost of living, 1972-73. Herendeen, R.A.; Ford, C.; Hannon, B. (Univ. of Illinois, Urbana). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 12, 1433-1450(Dec 1981).

The total energy requirements of household consumption of all goods and services were calculated. Source for consumption data is the 1972-73 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Survey. These are converted to energy terms using input-output energy intensities. The dependence of household energy use on expenditures, number of household members, degree of urbanization, and other demographic-economic factors, was investigated graphically and statistically. The major factor determining energy requirement is expenditure level, but this can be affected by up to about 15% by variation in the other factors. In agreement with previous work based on the 1960-61 BLS Survey, it is found that (1) the dependence of total energy requirements on expenditures shows a tendency to saturation; (2) about one-half of the total energy of the average household is a result of the purchase of fuels and electricity, while the other half results from the purchase of non-energy commodities. Application to the analysis of an energy tax and rebate program is discussed briefly. 15 refs.

243

MARKAL: a linear-programming model for energy-systems analysis: technical description of the BNL version. Fishbone, L.G.; Abilock, H. (Brookhaven Natl Lab, Upton, NY, USA). International Journal of Energy Research; 5: No. 4, 353-375(Oct-Dec 1981).

As part of a project to assess the value of new energy technologies, an international group of researchers created a linear-programming model of national energy systems. This model, MARKAL, is driven by useful energy demands, optimizes over several time periods collectively, and allows multiobjective analyses to be performed quite easily. The authors describe here the technical structure of the model, defining the functions determined when satisfying the model's relations, and the parameters that must be supplied to give the model content. 39 refs.

This dissertation is concerned with the study and extension of the Integrating Model of the Mid Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS). The MEFS consists of a family of models which have been utilized since 1974 by the federal government to predict the supply of and demand for a variety of energy products in the United States for up to fifteen years into the future. The Integrating Model combines energy-supply possibilities developed from the system's satellite supply models and energy-demand information developed from an econometric demand model, and solves for a system equilibrium using a sequence of linear programs. This research is concerned with two important criticisms of the Integrating Model: (1) The market structure employed is questionable. (2) The equilibrating procedure used is not well understood. The original developers of the Integrating Model argue that the system finds a competitive-market solution. However, a study of the mathematical structure of the system indicates that marginal costs are improperly specified for this type of solution. It is demonstrated that marginal costs in excess of those expected for a competitive solution are employed. A study of a two product model using mathematical and graphical analysis reveals that the equilibrating mechanism employed is a variation of the Gauss-Seidel numerical procedure. The rapid convergence commonly experienced in past applications is due to the utilization of large-scale linear programming for the numerical procedure.

From Symposium on social, economic, and cultural impacts of neutral resource development; Anchorage, AK, USA (25 Aug 1982). The author concludes that mitigation is the focus of conflicting opinions regarding responsibility, strategy, and effort. There are no hard, fast, or tried and true rules for company involvement in mitigation efforts. Each mitigation effort must be tailored and negotiated to match the unique characteristics of individual projects and circumstances of specific locales. Companies must assume financial responsibility for the temporary impacts and area needs created by their projects. They must also offer financial and technical assistance to impact areas, not just the host political jurisdiction, when local, state, federal, and special fund sources of revenue or technical assistance are not available or insufficient. But, local, state, and federal governments must also recognize their responsibilities and make adjustments in tax jurisdiction boundaries and disbursement formulas so that impacted areas are properly defined and receive an adequate share of lease, royalty, severance tax, permit fee, special use and service charges, and sales tax payments. Laws need to allow innovative uses of tax pre-payments, housing mortgage bonds, changeable debt and bounding limits, industrial loans with delayed prepayment, and revised revenue assistance formulas. Enabling legislation is required in most states to allow impact areas to negotiate the mitigation efforts. A review of 7 types of mitigation effort is presented: transportation; housing; public utilities; health,

public safety and recreation; miscellaneous; and company-community interaction. (PBS)

247 (CONF-8110237-1) Some non-urban aspects of Southern Appalachian rural nonfarm population. Newman, B.G. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)). 1981. Contract W-7405-ENG-26. 15p. NTIS, PC A02/MF A01. Order Number DE83001886.

From Appliachian Geographers conference; Pipestem, WV, USA (2 Oct 1981).

From a study encompassing eleven New York counties it was concluded that the Southern Appalachian rural nonfarm population is older than the US rural nonfarm population as a whole. Most of the rural nonfarm persons interviewed were not employed fulltime. Workers tended to be in positions of marginal employment. Generally, with increasing distance from an urban center, the rural nonfarm people are older, in more marginal employment positions and less likely to have any association with any urban area except to travel there for medical reasons. (PSB)

Portions of document are illegible.

A detailed feasibility study of producing methanol from Eucalyptus in Central Florida encompasses all phases of production from seedling to delivery of finished methanol. The project includes the following components: (1) production of 55 million, high quality, Eucalyptus seedlings through tissue culture; (2) establishment of a Eucalyptus energy plantation on approximately 70,000 acres; and (3) engineering for a 100 million gallon-per-year methanol production facility. In addition, the potential environmental impacts of the whole project were examined, safety and health aspects of producing and using methanol were analyzed, and site specific cost estimates were made. The economics of the project are presented here. Each of the three major components of the project tissue culture lab, energy plantation, and methanol refinery - are examined individually. In each case a site specific analysis of the potential return on investment was conducted.

250 (GAO/HRD-82-100) State drawdowns and use of low-income home energy assistance program funds. (General Accounting Office, Washington, DC (USA). Human Resources Div.). 12 Jul 1982. 37p. General Accounting Office, PO Box 6015, Gaithersburg, MD 20760. Order Number DE83900013.

Portions of document are illegible.

Results are reviewed from a telephone survey for financial assistance grants to low income groups for weatherization of their houses. All fifty states plus the District of Columbia are represented. (PSB)

251

(NP-2905466) Report of the Ad Hoc Committee on utility diversification. Revised draft report. (National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, Washington, DC (USA)). 3 Jun 1982. 288p. National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, Constitution Avenue and 12th Street N.W., P.O. Box 684, Washington, DC 20044. Order Number DE82905466.

Energy, telephone, and water utilities are facing significant changes and much uncertainty due to rapidly escalating financial crises coupled with ratepayer protests over higher rates. Hearings on the diversification investments made by the utilities are summa

rized. Regulators feel that the public interest must be protected since most utilities are monopolies.

252

Measuring the effects of higher energy prices. Bopp, A.; Lady, G.M. (James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA). Energy Economics; 4: No. 4, 218-224(Oct 1982).

The dramatic increases in world petroleum prices in the 1970s have been recognized as stimulating significant adverse economic consequences. Several simple partial-equilibrium models have been constructed to analyze a portion of the expected consequences and some complex large-scale general-equilibrium models have attempted the complete analysis. A simple and small generalequilibrium model is developed and presented here that allows one to simply investigate and explain the effects of higher energy prices. The model is calibrated to the US experience over 1973 to 1979. 30 references, 3 tables.

253

Energy and value. Roberts, P.C. (Dept. of Environment, London, England). Energy Policy; 10: No. 3, 171180(Sep 1982).

Energy theories of value are reviewed and a new variant introduced, based on the empirical relationship between price per unit mass and energy requirement per unit mass for a wide range of commodities. The demand pattern of households in the United Kingdom and the USA for energy would tend to produce a declining ratio of energy to gross domestic product (GDP). However, the tendency of goods with low energy intensity to be associated with low productivity gains introduces a counteracting effect, and energy/GDP ratios are fairly stable over time. A simple relationship connecting energy intensity, fuel price, and time constant of adjustment is used to forecast (retrospectively) the energy use per dollar of GDP in each of seven countries for the year 1976. 19 references, 11 figures, 4 tables.

254

J. Peter Grace on productivity and energy. Grace, J.P. Energy Management (Cleveland, Ohio); 8: No. 8, 1113(Sep 1982).

J. Peter Grace, explaining his views on productivity in an interview with the editor, sees the growth of government as a major contributing factor to the nation's declining productivity. He supports the administration's plan to reduce federal spending to less than 20% of gross national product. Energy-efficiency improvement, encouraged by free-market forces, will also improve productivity. Grace suggests that a higher tax on gasoline will be more effective than price controls in reducing oil imports. Other suggestions are for more reliance on coal for rail transport and power plants, natural gas deregulation, and restraint on attempts to shift the burden of energy-price increases onto industry. (DCK)

255

Be an acid rain detective. Atwill, L. Sports Afield; 188: No. 1, 73, 112, 114, 118(Jul 1982).

Acid rain is discussed in a question and answer format. The article is aimed at educating sport fishermen on the subject, and also to encourage them to write their congressmen, senators, and the President about the acid rain problem. The article also announces the availability of an acid rain test kit available through the magazine, "Sports Afield." The kit consists of pH-test paper that turns different shades of pink and blue according to the pH of the water tested. The color of the test paper is then compared to a color chart furnished in the kit and an approximate pH can be determined.

256

Aggregate model for energy costs: national product interdependence. Samouilidis, J.E.; Mitropoulos, C.S. (National Technical Univ., Athens, Greece). Energy Economics; 4: No. 3, 199-206(Jul 1982).

A small model is constructed which describes energy-economy interactions on an aggregate level. The model, based on a neoclassical approach, estimates the impact on net national product and energy demand of changes in the cost of domestic and imported energy if tax and tariff rates (as percentages of total price) are kept constant. A parametric analysis is carried out to investigate the role of structural parameters such as the price and income elasticities. Among others, a key parameter of primary importance in the energy-economy interaction is revealed to be the cost-to-output

257

Regional conflict and national policy. Price, K.A. Resources; No. 70, 1-3(Jul 1982).

The western states demonstrate how poorly arbitrary boundary lines represent the way people feel compared with the concept of region, which has no legal existence. Regional realities shift with time and change, but interregional conflicts over land and water have existed throughout history. Population shifts and the recent emergence of energy commodities, along with strong regional feelings, are now focused in the West. 2 references, 2 figures. (DCK)

258

Energy boom towns: it's not all bad. Olson, E.A. Your Public Lands; 32: No. 3, 18-22(Sum 1982).

Economic development in northwestern Colorado's energy triangle has not had as negative an impact as the media and politicians claim. While crime, inadequate housing, and unrest exist, they are balanced by the positive effects of new business and service activities, better medical care, and an expanded tax base. Sometimes the citizenry perceives change as a loss when the long-term effect will be positive. The author cites the experiences of several people who looked at the positive side of development opportunities for their own and their community's benefit. (DCK)

259

Financial constraints of the development of solar energy: and suggested government action to mitigate such constraints. Corey, G.R. (Commonwealth Edison Co, Chicago, IL). Energy (Oxford); 7: No. 1, 87-97(Jan 1982).

Solar-energy applications can be separated into six categories: (A) retrofit of existing buildings, (B) altered structural designs for new buildings, (C) solar collectors for low-temperature water and space heating, (D) relatively small on-site solar generators (including windmills), (E) large-scale solar or wind-powered electric generator or cogenerator installations, and (F) widespread dispersion of solar generation with an integrated electric-supply sytem. Decisions to opt for solar applications in the first three categories are largely made by individual homeowners, landlords, small-business entrepreneurs, and corporation executives, while the development and installation of facilities in the last three categories are clearly affected by the financial and regulatory constraints and incentives faced by local energy-supply utilities, especially electric utilities. Government actions to stimulate solar development are different for the first three categories than for the last three. If electric utilities are to be induced to install solar-generation facilities, existing rate-making practices must be revised. Several additional federal actions might be taken to provide utilities and others, including large industrial power users, with economic incentives to install solar and wind power generation. 2 refs.

260

Risk spreading and US energy development. Navarro, P. (Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA). Energy Systems and Policy; 6: No. 3, 279-290(1982).

Who should bear the risks and financial burdens of future energy development. Is government regulation an appropriate mechanism to spread and allocate financial, regulatory, and engineering risks of future large-scale and high-risk energy projects. These two critical questions are examined within the context of the court battles over the Federal Energy Regulatory Administration's precedent-setting attempt to force gas consumers of five major pipelines to finance the Great Plains Coal Gasification Project. Private financing is the most-efficient method of funding investment when the assumptions of perfect competition are reasonably approximated. In the absence of market failures, consumer financing via construction-project surcharges on energy bills has equal efficiency properties, although consumer financing may reduce the project-builders incentives to minimize cost. However, government financing is clearly preferred in the presence of market failures that characterize large-scale, high-risk energy projects. In the case of Great Plains, its high risk and large scale coupled with the security benefits of a successful synfuels demonstration project suggested that government financing was both the most efficient and equitable means of financing Great Plains. That ideal solution ran afoul of the

reality of selfinterested corporate behavior, Congressional politics, and bureaucratic expediency. 18 references.

261

Decentralized energy. Craig, P.P.; Levine, M.D. (eds.). Boulder, CO; Westview Press, Inc. (1982). 167p. (CONF-800111-Pt.1). Westview Press, Inc., 5500 Central Ave., Boulder, CO 80301 $18.50.

From Annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; San Francisco, CA, USA (3 Jan 1980).

In an effort to develop energy systems capable of expanding human freedom and individualization, this symposium focuses on institutional issues relating to centralization of energy supply and use. Although an integrated view was not attained, new concepts are presented which when fully developed will address the social issues relating to energy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of 5 of the 6 individual papers; one paper was processed earlier. (PSB)

262

Dueling the devil in the energy wars. Gerlach, L.P. pp 79-105 of Decentralized energy. Craig, P.P.; Levine, M.D. (eds.). Boulder, CO; Westview Press, Inc. (1982).

From Annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; San Francisco, CA, USA (3 Jan 1980). In debating whether the hard or soft path for energy supplies should be chosen in the US, the author addresses the question of societal cost caused by combining rather than opposing centralized and decentralized projects, programs, strategies and objectives within the energy field. His conclusion is that the conflict between approaches to energy is not nearly so great as the apparent conflict within many cultures over matters of direct bearing to everyday life. Inconsistencies within cultures are routine. Gerlach presents one case of a primitive society shuttling between two cultures and living comfortably with the mores of both. People are pragmatic, and will use whatever tools are available to achieve their desired ends. Gerlach's conclusion is that energy is not likely to lead to irreconcilable choices between decentralized and centralized energy futures. Rather, both futures appear capable of coexisting, although not without conflict and disharmony among them. But the conflict appears to be one consistent with the resiliencies of society.

263

Building an equitable solar future: a primer on how not to bungle the energy transition. Ferrey, S. pp 109-137 of Decentralized energy. Craig, P.P.; Levine, M.D. (eds.). Boulder, CO; Westview Press, Inc. (1982).

From Annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; San Francisco, CA, USA (3 Jan 1980). The author addresses a wide range of policy and institutional issues affecting the commercialization of renewable energy systems. His paper is suggestive of action programs while recognizing clearly the inherent conflicts among diverse social and energy related goals. He is supportive of renewable energy, and perceives the real world difficulties of implementing solar energy systems. The paper uses a great deal of data to illustrate such issues as possible biases against the poor and against renters of policies to promote renewable energy; physical limitations of solar energy in urban areas; inequities of property taxes with respect to solar; and numerous other complex interactions among renewable energy systems, urban areas, electric utilities, and existing and evolving institutions. Ferrey sees these facets of the economic and social environment as elements of a mosaic that can be built in harmony with decentralized energy systems. But one has the sense that this harmony will not be attained early.

264

Energy futures, human values, and lifestyles: a new look at the energy crisis. Carlson, R.C.; Harman, W.W.; Schwartz, P. Boulder, CO; Westview Press (1982). 202p.

A group of SRI International scholars looks beyond the technical difficulties of the energy crisis to determine the basic reasons for the severity of our energy and environmental problems, and finds them in our individual choices of life style. The authors depict two detailed energy-use scenarios for the year 2050, using California as a model. One scenario portrays a future that is a result