29 GENERAL

1

(EGG-M-16082) Establishing a total information management program. Hegstrom, K.L.; Fisher, J. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls (USA); Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA). Nuclear Safety Analysis Center). 1982. Contract AC07-761D01570. 2p. (CONF820959-1). NTIS, PC A02/MF A01. Order Number DE83000587.

From Nuclear Records Management Association conference; Detroit, MI, USA (8 Sep 1982).

A total information management program manages documents for easy access and identifies data elements commonly found in all documents. The program thus links disparate documents by identifying information they share in common.

2

Fiscal Year 1983, Department of Energy budget review. Hearing before the Committee on Science and Technology, US House of Representatives, Ninety-Seventh Congress, second session. Volume I. Washington, DC; Government Printing Office (1982). 1928p.

Witnesses included Secretary of Energy James B. Edwards and the following members of Congress: Marilyn L. Bouquard, Tenn.; Ed Weber, Ohio; George E. Brown, Jr., Calif.; Claudine Schneider, R.I.; Tom Harkin, Iowa; and William Carney, New York. Statements of each are included, along with supporting documentation. In addition, the following appendices regarding the FY 1983 budget are included: (1) Atomic energy defense activities. (2) Energy-supply research and development (solar energy, geothermal, hydropower and nuclear). (3) Energy-supply research and development (magnetic fusion, electric energy systems and storage, environment and supporting research and technical analysis). (4) General science and research; uranium enrichment; geothermal resources development fund and program administration. (5) Fossilenergy research and development and energy conservation research. (6) Energy-conservation grants; energy information activities; emergency preparedness and energy regulation. (7) Administrative support for energy programs. (8) Naval petroleum and oilshale reserves and strategic petroleum reserve. (9) Power-marketing administrations and administrative support for energy programs. (10) Petroleum regulatory activities. (11) Administrative support for petroleum regulatory activities. (12) Other natural gas activities.

2901 Energy Analysis And Modeling

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 110, 123, 175

3

(NP-2904025) Energy - a Siemens documentation. (Siemens A.G., Berlin (Germany, F.R.)). 1981. 94p. (In German). NTIS (US Sales Only), PC A05/MF A01. Order Number DE82904025.

On the occasion of an internal meeting the data for providing some information on the topic of 'energy' were compiled which were to serve as a basis for discussion. Since this topic is too comprehensive and too complex for being dealt with satisfactorily within such a framework only such aspects were selected, which are of special importance for Siemens. After having given a general survey the authors concentrate on dealing with petroleum substitution, rational use of energy and the energy discussion.

2902 Economics And Sociology

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 7, 67, 99, 106, 129, 136, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 149, 150, 159, 161, 177, 178, 179, 188, 189

4

(DOE/ET/20279-223) Solar-photovoltaic power for broadcasting stations: an economic analysis. Nichols, B.E.; Katzman, M.T. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Lexington (USA). Lincoln Lab.). Aug 1982. Contract AC0276ET20279. 51p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE82022498.

An economic analysis of the profitability for broadcasting stations of replacing conventional electricity with on-site solar photovoltaic power systems has been undertaken. Technological characteristics of these power systems are presented along with the economic assumptions necessary for their evaluation. Time of initial profitability, time of optimal investment, optimum system capacity, and impact of tax incentivs on profitability are analyzed for several locations in the country representative of the range of insolation conditions. The analyses indicate that photovoltaic power systems are expected, if cost predictions are met, to prove profitable for the broadcasting market in the Southwest by the early 1980s, in the South by the mid-1980s and in the Northeast by the late 1980s. The study was performed in 1979 and was used o help design an experimental PV power system for a radio station in Ohio, which was installed in that year and has operated successfully ever since.

6

(ORNL/CON-71) Residential energy-tax-credit eligibility: a case study for the heat-pump water heater. Cohn, S.M.; Cardell, N.S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)). Sep 1982. Contract W-7405-ENG-26. 61p. NTIS, PC A04/ MF A01. Order Number DE82021109.

Described are the methodology and results of an analysis to determine the eligibility of an energy-efficient item for the residential energy-tax credit. Although energy credits are granted only on a national basis, an attempt to determine the tax-credit eligibility for an item such as the heat-pump water heater (HPWH) analyzing national data is inappropriate. The tax-credit eligibility of the HPWH is evaluated for the ten federal regions to take into consideration the regional differences of: (1) HPWH annual efficiency, (2) existing water heater stocks by fuel type, (3) electricity, fuel oil, and natural-gas price variations, and (4) electric-utility oil and gas use for electricity generation. A computer model of consumer choice of HPWH selection as well as a computer code evaluating the economics of tax-credit eligibility on a regional basis were developed as analytical tools for this study. The analysis in this report demonstrates that the HPWH meets an important criteria for eligibility by

the Treasury Department for an energy tax credit (nationally, the estimated dollar value of savings of oil and gas over the lifetime of those HPWH's sold during 1981 to 1985 due to the tax credit exceeds the revenue loss to the treasury). A natural-gas price-deregulation scenario is one of two fuel scenarios that are evaluated using the equipment choice and tax-credit models. These two cases show the amounts of oil and gas saved by additional HPWH units sold (due to the tax credit during 1981 to 1985 (range from 13.9 to 23.1 million barrels of oil equivalent over the lifetime of the equipment.

2903 Environment, Health, And Safety

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 65, 69, 70, 108, 131, 223

7

(PNL-4384) Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO2-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy. Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)). Aug 1982. Contract AC06-76RL01830. 359p. NTIS, PC A16/MF A01. Order Number DE83000028.

The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO2 on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO2 buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO2-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO2 buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO2-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO2 on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

2902 Economics And Sociology

8

(UCRL-53283) Energy demand in the primarymetals industry: an econometric analysis. McClernan, L.A.; Chern, W.S. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)). May 1982. Contract W-7405-ENG-48. 71p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE83000025.

A generalized fuel-choice model for four fuels is formulated and is used to estimate the coefficients and three types of price elasticities for the primary metals industry. The generalized fuel-choice model differs from the multinomial logit model in that there are no a priori restrictions on the price elasticities and that third price effects are not ignored. Both the generalized fuel-choice model and a multinomial logit model are estimated for the total period (1967, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977), the pre-embargo period (1967, 1971), and the post embargo period (1974 to 1977). Dynamic versions are also estimated with data from 1975 through 1977. The results are used to illustrate a structural change in the primary metals industry's demand for energy, forecast energy demand and fuel market shares to the year 2000, and evaluate several possible energy policies.

share of their budgets. A low-income energy-assistance program sought to moderate this impact. In reviewing the government's efforts, the author examines the dominant political issues and parameters. He notes that program inequities are inherent in the discretion given to the states through the federal block grant program, and recommends revising the state-local decision-making responsibilities to minimize the opportunities for mismanagement, fraud, and inequity. Other steps the federal government could take are multiyear planning, a research and evaluation agenda, a reliable data base, and a flexible allocation formula. 21 references, 1 table. (DCK)

10

Activities in the energy field of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Kambhu, M.L.P. (ESCAP, Bangkok, Thailand). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 8, 855-857(Aug 1981). (CONF800296—).

From 3. workshop of the Asia-Pac Energy Study Consultant Group; Honolulu, HI, USA (25 Feb 1980).

A brief presentation, in schematic form, of the activities of ESCAP: providing information on electricity supply; giving assistance to developing countries in planning, development, and management of energy resources; and promoting the development of non-conventional sources of energy. Refs.

11

Social impacts of soft and hard energy systems: the Lovins' claims as a social science challenge. Morrison, D.E.; Lodwick, D.G. (Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI). Annual Review of Energy; 6: 357-378(1981).

An overview is first given of the soft-energy notion as well as of its social impact. Then a discussion is given of the logical and theoretical considerations that social scientists must address if the claims for soft-energy are to be considered researchable. Finally, a set of methodological considerations are sketched. In particular, the specifics of the soft-energy system as enumerated by Amory Lovins are examined. 54 refs.

12

Contractarian theory, intergenerational justice, and energy policy. Richards, D.A.J. College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland (1981). 26p. $2.00.

The equal opportunity criterion can be used to defend contractarian theory as a basis for intergenerational theory and the extension of constitutional rights to future generations. This is analagous to proposals introducing new forms of legal rights to protect natural objects or resources to compensate for the weak claims of future generations and the non-reciprocity of intergenerational justice. The deep human interest in contributing to the world that will follow reflects our secular society, and brings some convergence of ethical and self-interest. 66 references (DCK)

13

Energy policy and the further future. Parfit, D. College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland (1981). 20p. $2.00. Six arguments for using a Social Discount Rate in evaluating the long-term costs and benefits of social policies are based on probability, opportunity costs, the chance that our successors will be better off, excessive sacrifice, and special relations. None of these arguments is successful beyond a rule-of-thumb application in making a decision between high or low consumption. If a moral standard is applied, there is just as much objection to a high consumption as a low consumption decision. The author examines the moral implications of pursuing a path that we believe will be harmful to future generations and shows that it is balanced by the fact that choosing the low path will prevent many from being born. This reduces the dilemma to choosing future existence with possible harm or choosing no existence for later generations. 2 figures. (DCK)

2903 Environment, Health, And Safety

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 29040012, 110

15

(DOE/EP-0059) Environmental compliance guide: guidance manual for Department of Energy compliance with the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act. Volume 3D. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Environmental Protection, Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Washington, DC. Office of Environmental Compliance). Jul 1982. 28p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE82022215.

This manual provides guidance for Department of Energy (DOE) officials who are responsible for complying with the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act (FWCA). The FWCA requires that consideration be given to the conservation of fish and wildlife resources during the development of any DOE projects that affect water resources directly or indirectly. Early in project planning, DOE must cooperate with state and federal wildlife agencies in assessing project impacts to fish and wildlife. The FWCA directs wildlife agencies to make recommendations for mitigation of these impacts and requires DOE to plan its projects in such a way that equal weight is given to wildlife conservation and other project benefits.

Portions of document are illegible.

This manual provides guidance for Department of Energy (DOE) officials who are responsible for complying with the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) regulations of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The regulations require that new major stationary sources of air pollution or modifications to existing major sources located in attainment or unclassified areas comply with existing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), allowable PSD increments, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), and the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS). Compliance with the PSD regulations entails a determination of applicability, an analysis of the best available control technology (BACT), an analysis of air quality impacts, an analysis of additional impacts, and a public participation process. This guidance manual supplements and must be used in conjunction with the DOE Environmental Compliance Guide (DOE 1981) and the appropriate PSD manuals from the US EPA and the state. Section 52.21 of the Code of Federal Regulations applies if EPA is the permitting authority, otherwise, state PSD provisions apply.

ambient air quality standards (nonattainment areas). The manual is to be used by project managers at the US Department of Energy (DOE), in conjunction with the DOE Environmental Compliance Guide, to provide preliminary estimates of information required to obtain air quality permits for DOE projects. An analysis of nonattainment area permitting found that permitting of all sources in such areas is done on the state or local levels; the Environmental Protection Agency does not grant permits in nonattainment areas. As a result, Federal information requirements for permitting in nonattainment areas are somewhat vague. To provide a more realistic picture of nonattainment area permitting, selected state and local regulations were surveyed, and were found to contain more detail on the information required for permit approval. The most potentially demanding information requirements associated with nonattainment area permitting are the determination of Lowest Achievable Emission Rate, the negotiation of external emission offsets, and the consideration of the environmental impacts of project alternatives in ozone and carbon monoxide nonattainment areas. In any state, a few information requirements for nonattainment area permitting are likely to overlap with information requirements of other permitting processes, such as those in the Prevention of Significant Deterioration procedure. These requirements are emissions data and air quality modeling and its associated input data requirements (meteorology, topography, etc.).

18

Environmental

(DOE/EV/10019-7-Vol.2-Pt.7) and societal consequences of a possible CO2-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 7. Direct effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on managed forests. Tombaugh, L.W.; Dickman, D.I.; Sprugel, D.G. (Michigan State Univ., East Lansing (USA). Dept. of Forestry). Sep 1982. Contract AS01-79EV10019. 20p. NTIS, PC A02/MF A01. Order Number DE83001153.

A description is given of a program of research dealing with the effect of increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the ambient environment on forests that are managed to produce specific goods and services. Experimental studies in growth chambers, greenhouses, and field chambers are needed to determine the physiological responses of seedlings and young trees to variable CO2 levels, and a modeling approach is required to integrate all the factors which may affect the response of entire forest stands to elevated CO2 levels. It is strongly recommended that the proposed research be limited to a few intensively managed communities (e.g., Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest, loblolly pine in the Southeast, poplar or other managed hardwoods in the Lake States, eucalyptus and/or teak in the tropics, and Norway spruce and/or beech in Europe). The strength of the CO2 cycle models will be considerably diluted unless an attempt is made to concentrate efforts and resources on a few key managed forest systems.

19

(DOE/EV/10019-8-Vol.2) Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO2-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 8. Impacts of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on agricultural growing seasons and crop water use efficiencies. Newman, J.E. (Purdue Univ., Lafayette, IN (USA). Dept. of Agronomy). Sep 1982. Contract AS0179EV10019. 33p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE83001004.

The researchable areas addressed relate to the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural growing seasons and crop adaptation responses on a global basis. The research activities proposed are divided into the following two main areas of investigation: anticipated climate change impacts on the physical environmental characteristics of the agricultural growing seasons and, the most probable food crop responses to the possible changes in atmospheric CO2 levels in plant environments. The main physical environmental impacts considered are the changes in temperature, or more directly, thermal energy levels and the growing season evapotranspiration-precipitation balances. The resulting food crop, commercial forest and rangeland species response impacts addressed relate to potential geographical shifts in agricultural growing seasons as determined by the length in days of the frost free period, thermal energy changes and water balance changes. In addition, the interaction of possible changes in plant water use efficiencies during the growing season in relationship to changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, is also considered under the scenario of global

warming due to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These proposed research investigations are followed by adaptive response evaluations.

20

(DOE/EV/10019-9-Vol.2) Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO2-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 9. Alleviation of environmental stress on renewable resource productivity. Howell, G.S. (Michigan State Univ., East Lansing (USA)). Sep 1982. Contract AS0179EV10019. 39p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01. Order Number DE83001006.

It is pointed out that temperature and water stress are the key factors that will be influenced by a rise in ambient CO2 concentration. Improvement of the capacity of crop plants to withstand water and temperature stress will require an undergirding effort in basic research, to support required advances in plant breeding and development of novel crop management systems. The most important considerations for future research on environmental stress in crops are: the need for interdisciplinary approaches in all aspects of stress research; the need for centralized stress testing capabilities; plant-breeding, the long-term solution with greatest potential benefit and least cost; improvement in management techniques, becoming more effective as increased attention is directed to the management of specific genotypes; the need for understanding of more stress effects closer to the optimum than to lethality; the need to optimize rather than maximize production; the need for understanding different stress effects during different, critical developmental stages; the need for development of usable, physiologically-based crop models to serve as predictive tools for agronomists and breeders; the recognition that improvement options in annual crops are greater than in perennial crops; efforts to culture perennial crops as annuals as a means of avoiding winter stress; and the need for a major effort to devise techniques to shorten the breeding cycle in perennials so that genetic solutions can be more readily employed.

21

(ORNL/TM-8167) Methodology for environmental risk analysis. ESD Publication No. 2023. Barnthouse, L.W.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Powers, C.D.; Suter, G.W. II; Vaughan, D.S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)). Sep 1982. Contract W-7405ENG-26. 69p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE83000419.

This report describes a general methodology for environmental risk analysis. Five biologically and socially relevant endpoints for environmental risk analysis are described: (1) reductions in fish populations, (2) development of algal populations that detract from water use, (3) reductions in timber field or undesirable changes in forest composition, (4) reductions in agricultural production, and (5) reductions in wildlife populations. Five methods of risk analysis are described. The quotient method involves direct comparison of estimated environmental concentrations to standard toxicological benchmarks (e.g., LC50's). In analysis of extrapolation error, expected effects of contaminants on organisms in the field are estimated, with appropriate error bounds, from observed effects on laboratory test organisms. Fault tree analysis can be used to elucidate causal linkages between pollutants and endpoints. The analytic hierarchy method uses expert opinion to rank the relative environmental risks of different stresses. Ecosystem uncertainty analysis uses Monte Carlo simulation and ecosystem models to extrapolate from laboratory toxicological data to estimate risks to populations and ecosystems. The five methods differ substantially with respect to data requirements, level of organization addressed, and potential uses. Comparative advantages and disadvantages cannot be determined until experience is gained.

22

(PNL-4371) Benefit-cost analysis of selected DOE/OHER investments in coal liquefaction. Callaway, J.M.; Fillo, J.P.; Gray, R.H.; Felix, W.D.; Mahlum, D.D. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)). Sep 1982. Contract AC06-76RL01830. 52p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE83001333.

Based in large part of the lack of specific information about the nature and magnitude of health impacts that could occur from commercialization of a coal liquefaction industry, DOE initiated a broad-based program to study the potential health and environmental fate and effects of process streams from several coal liquefaction

process options. Responsibility for this research was assigned to OHER. Specific results of this research program that are important for the purpose of this analysis include findings that: the toxicity and teratogenic potential of coal liquids boiling below 450°F is small; mutagenic and carcinogenic activity is typically expressed in coal liquids boiling above 750°F; and mutagenic and carcinogenic activity increases markedly in coal liquids boiling above 800°F. Based on the above findings, OHER funded research to evaluate the effect of various hydrotreatment levels on the biological activity of coal-derived liquids. Studies using the Ames assay or mammalian cell transformation assays indicated that hydrotreatment was effective in reducing biological activity of coal-derived liquids. Skin-painting studies demonstrated that carcinogenicity was also reduced by hydrotreatment. Studies in progress are evaluating the effects of hydrotreatment severity on biological activity. However, it appears reasonably clear that health risks can be reduced by hydrotreating only materials that boil above 750°F. Materials boiling below 750° could be marketed directly without significant risk to individuals exposed to these products. The benefit-cost analysis presented is based on the premise that the cost differential between full and partial hydrotreatment provides the basis for approximating the potential benefits associated with the relevant OHER research investments.

23

A case history of the North Dakota PSD program. Uman, M.F. (National Research Council, Washington, DC). Environmental Science and Technology; 16: No. 7, 386A393A(Jul 1982).

One of the more controversial provisions of the Clean Air Act is Part C, Title 1, which establishes a program for the prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) of air quality in regions of the country that meet the national ambient air quality standards for protecting public health and welfare. In this article, a case history of the PSD program in North Dakota is summarized with the purpose of using the history to understand PSD, the problems encountered in its implementation, and the opportunities it provides for protecting air quality while accommodating industrial development. In North Dakota, the ability of such a relatively small state to work flexibly with industry to find solutions that accommdate both industrial expansion and protection of air quality demonstrates that PSD can be an effective tool for achieving these goals. (JMT)

24

Marine pollution control regulation. Alheritiere, D. (FAO, Rome, Italy). Marine Policy; 6: No. 3, 162-174(Jul 1982).

The author acknowledges the present trend in favour of regional approaches for marine pollution control regulation and explains why regional approaches are attractive alternatives to global or unilateral actions. The author briefly surveys the provisions and performance of the regional agreements concluded to date and analyzes the various types of regional agreements. The conclusion, although pointing out the distinction between the global and the regional approach, reminds the reader that both approaches have eventually to face the same test: enforcement through national action. A list of regional agreements on or affecting marine pollution is presented in the Appendix.

25

Hazard analysis a review of criteria. Kletz, T.A. (Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd., Middlesbrough (UK). Petrochemicals and Plastics Div.). Reliability Engineering; 3: No. 4, 325-338(Jul 1982).

In hazard analysis we identify hazards, estimate the probability of occurrence and the consequences and then compare them with a standard or criterion in order to decide whether or not action to reduce the probability or protect people from the consequences is desirable. This paper reviews some of the criteria that have been suggested. Some consider the risk to individuals whilst others are more concerned with the impact on society as a whole. [Some references are made to radiation hazards.]