development. It should include as a prerequisite, the availability of an effective array of financial incentives, and emanate from an open and participatory process. 41 refs.

159

Intergenerational justice in energy policy. Barry, B. College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland (1981). 21p. $2.00. The finite nature of fossil fuels is common to all mineral resources, but fossil fuels are special in that they cannot be recycled. Offsetting resource depletion with improved technology and high capital investment means that future policies must compensate for a corresponding loss in productive potential. Intergenerational justice in energy decisions, however, is no different than for any other context. Using utility as the criterion for compensation for resource depletion is wrong because present generations cannot be held responsible for the satisfaction future generations will derive from their opportunities. Just policies for the present should compensate for reducing the range of opportunities in terms of productive policies. This raises the question of what opportunities future generations should have and how to define an appropriate standard for judging those opportunities. The predictions of what will fairly compensate future generations for a loss of productive capacity should consider the value of capital stock that is passed on. The practical problems associated with intergenerational justice cannot avoid the risk of cultural impoverishment, irreversibility, and disproportion. (DCK)

2940 Fossil Fuels

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 41, 42, 61, 105, 108, 111, 112, 130, 135, 183, 201, 201, 203

160

Petroleum industry in oil-importing developing countries. Ghadar, F. Lexington, MA; D.C. Heath and Company (1983). 234p.

In studying the development and growth of the petroleum industry in oil-importing developing countries (OIDCs), three such countries Argentina, India, and Korea - were selected as a diverse yet representative sample and were examined using an intensive case-study method. The data indicate that the evolution of the oil industry in these nations has encountered both difficulties and opportunities, with several underlying concerns conflicting with one another. Development of the petroleum industry in these countries necessitated a continuously shifting balance of requirements. Concurrent with this development was the erosion of concentration within the worldwide petroleum industry, once controlled by the multinational oil companies (MNOCs). This erosion made it possible for the developing oil-consuming nations to play a larger role in their local petroleum industries. An analysis of ten oil-importing developing countries showed that the first operations taken over by these countries were operations that allowed the nations flexibility in varying crude sources (that is, refineries). As the MNOCs have lost access to their cheap Middle East crude, the disincentive to develop OIDC sources is dissipating. To date, however, oil exploration in the OIDCs has decreased. The exploration and development of this crude will depend on the capital and technology available to the OIDCs. At present, the MNOCS remain the most-efficient entities to offer these resources. This book reviews the role of the international financial institutions (IFIs) - such as the World Bank and the OPEC and Arab Funds - with particular attention to IFI involvement as a catalyst, encouraging the MNOCs to participate in OIDC oil operations.

161

US oil industry and the Third World: a new era. Energy Detente; 3: No. 16, 1-11(11 Nov 1982). (In English and Spanish).

The US oil industry's participation in Third World oil and gas exploration activity has declined during recent years. This has elicited a Statement of Principles on the subject from the National Petroleum Council (NPC), an advisory group to the US Government. A chart shows how more exploration drilling reflects non-US companies (including national oil companies in developing countries), particularly since 1973. The industry's recommendations to governments, both Third World and US, to facilitate the US increasing its role in countries with hydrocarbon potential, are examined. Four international energy conferences held recently in the US are reviewed briefly, namely: (1) Geothermal Resources Council

annual meeting, San Diego, CA, October 13-15; (2) Natural Gas: Policy Planning and Technical Issues, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, September 15-16; (3) Oil Market Developments and Forecasting, Calgary, Alberta, October 18; and (4) 62nd Annual Meeting of the American Petroleum Institute, Houston, TX, November 7-12. The Energy Detente fuel price/tax series for the countries of the Eastern Hemisphere is updated.

162

Petroleum refining in the Americas: 1982. Energy Detente; 3: No. 15, 1-10(28 Oct 1982). (In English and Spanish).

In 1982, while some refiners advanced rapidly toward flexibility and profitability, others fell farther behind the times. While all countries of the Western Hemisphere share the problem of balancing supply with demand for petroleum products, the differences in the way this problem is impacting their refining industries are dramatic. The world recession and persistently soft petroleum prices have stimulated progressive trends in the US, but entrenched most of its neighbors deeper in refining dilemmas. This updates the Energy Detente March 17, 1981 survey; the effects of economic slowdown are manifested in the data and field interviews. The second oil price adjustment of 1978-1979, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) terms it, brought in its wake a bevy of long-term logistics problems for refiners: Demand for oil is still falling, and forming new patterns - forcing the industry into retreat from prior commitments to capacity expansion. A map shows total installed refining capacity by country, and a table breaks down each capacity by type. A profile of three principal refined products (gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil) shows a grouping in three yield ranges for 20 to 35° and 36 to 55° API gravity. The Energy Detente fuel price/tax series is updated for countries of the Western Hemisphere.

163

Users: up old gas prices to bar shortages, '85 hikes. Betts, M. Energy User News; 7: No. 35, 1, 19(30 Aug 1982). Concerned about the projected price spike and regional shortages of natural gas, industrial users urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to raise price ceilings on old gas and allow average wellhead prices to reach $1.50 per thousand cubic feet (mcf). FERC's accord with this plan reflects the problems created by current Natural Gas Policy Act rules. Opponents say a FERC ruling to equalize prices is backdoor decontrol and no substitute for congressional action. Users disagree on whether they want FERC to deal with producer-pipeline contracts to artificially boost gas prices. (DCK)

164

Figuring on energy: should utilities sell oil. Schaffer, P. Energy User News; 7: No. 35, 15(30 Aug 1982). Proposals to turn interstate pipelines into common carriers and gas utilities into multifuel dealers to sell oil and propane could lower user prices and make contract terms more responsive to market trends. If pipelines are no longer wholesalers, however, they would no longer guarantee reserves. This could allow price and supply cycles to develop. If utilities also sell oil and propane, it will broaden their base as fuel suppliers and simplify servicing for multifuel users. It would also eliminate penalties for small users. An idea for transporting propane through natural gas pipelines is under consideration. (DCK)

165

Gas prices seen rising 20% next year; supply adequate. Energy User News; 7: No. 33, 1, 14-15(16 Aug 1982). A one-year forecast for natural gas shows adequate supplies and a 20% increase in price. Any decline in production will be made up through imports, which cost 25% more than domestic gas. Gas-purchase adjustments (GPAs) will account for most of the price increases. A breakdown of the forecast covers the midwest, south central, mid-Atlantic, far west, southeast, and northeast regions. (DCK)

This is the third of three volumes prepared for the Economic Regulatory Administration (ERA) of the Department of Energy (DOE). In Volumes II and III, pertinent Federal Register publications are presented in chronological order of publication. Both volumes serve as entitlement program records and as a reference source for the analytical history presented in Volume I. This analytical history has been prepared to achieve the following objectives: to provide a single, comprehensive historical and analytical record of the entitlements program; to gather under one cover a complete legislative and regulatory history of the entitlements program; to analyze all entitlements program elements to show concisely the impacts on various sectors of the industry; and to provide a reference book for use in related research activity.

168

Gas utilities seek authority to meet oil's price challenge. Barber, J. Energy User News, 7: No. 30, 1, 13(26 Jul 1982).

Gas utilities want to structure industrial rates to keep them competitive with No. 6 fuel oil now that rising gas prices are causing users with dual-fuel boilers to reduce their gas consumption. The gap between oil and gas prices is narrowing nationwide. The utilities want floating rates for interruptible users that will tie gas to oil prices and allow the utilities to hand on to their customers with quick responses to changes in oil price. The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners sees some merit to the plan, but questions data-collection and verification procedures. State commissions are urged to increase the frequency of rate changes, but some time lag would occur. (DCK)

169

Heavy oil: its significance for the US energy balance. McKie, J.W. (Univ. of Texas, Austin). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 151-162(Spr 1982).

Differences in definition, approach, and economic modeling introduce discrepancies in projections of petroleum reserves because some forecasts eliminate tertiary and other recoverable oils from their supply-price trajectories. If heavy and tar-sands oils require special technologies, special policies for incremental-cost incentives or subsidies may be in order. Other factors needing consideration are national security, refining capacity, heavy-oil imports, and capital investments. Whether heavy oil could reduce OPEC's power may be as problematical and elusive as US hopes for Mexican oil. Dr. McKie feels it is likely that heavy oil and tar sands will contribute a growing share of energy in the Western Hemisphere, however, over the long term. 18 references, 1 table. (DCK)

170

Petroleum production in developing countries: problems and prospects. Lowinger, T.C. (Washington State Univ., Pullman). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2,225-241(Spr 1982).

This paper analyzes the supply response of non-OPEC developing countries to the sharp increase of oil prices since 1973-74. As a consequence of the higher price, oil-consuming nations have a greater incentive to economize in their use of oil, to develop domestic sources of petroleum, and whenever economically feasible, to substitute alternative forms of energy for petroleum. The less-developed countries (LDCs) are faced with the twin burdens of paying for a steadily mounting oil import bill to maintain their current levels of economic activity while also generating additional resources for investment in the exploration for and development of domestic energy sources. The ratio of LDC external debt to exports of goods and services has climbed from 80% in 1974 to almost 100% in 1978-79. The higher debt-service requirements increase the burden. The oil prospects of non-OPEC LDCs, with the

exception of Mexico, appear unlikely to reduce their dependence on imported oil. The World Bank's expanded role is the single ray of hope. 18 references, 2 figures, 6 tables.

171

National economic and strategic vs. commercial considerations in the exploitation of gas reservoirs. Nafi, Z.A. (Qatar General Petroleum Corp. (QGPC), Doha). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 243-251(Spr 1982). In planning the exploitation of gas reserves, the potential gas producers would have to consider all aspects relating to such a project: commercial, economic, and strategic. The evaluation could be undertaken in the following sequence: (a) maximum possible use for domestic purposes; (b) use as a petrochemical feedstock; (c) use in power generation, water desalination, and other industries; and (d) available balance could be exported. The overall feasibility of any such project would depend on the surplus that could be exported. The United States, Western Europe, and Japan would provide the greatest potential for gas exports from the gas-producing states in the Arabian Gulf area and North Africa. Exports to the United States and Japan would have to be exclusively in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or methanol. Western Europe could accommodate pipeline transfers of natural gas from Algeria and Libya. 3 references, 6 tables.

172

Strategies for maximizing the value of heavy crude. Verleger, P.K. Jr.; Bresler, J.L. (Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Washington, DC). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 271-287(Spr 1982).

The high cost, high sulfur and metal content, and low yield of valued products make heavy crude oil uneconomic for most oil companies, but this may be a short-sighted view because investments made today to process heavy crudes will become profitable if the price for heavy crude is set in a rational way. A review of the pricing mechanisms and the projected market and costs indicates that prices are now a result of OPEC's control over production and not a result of direct price setting. Other observations note that the price for heavy products will decline, while those of light products will increase; that when this occurs, it is profitable to invest in processing equipment for heavy oils; and that these conditions will continue. 5 references, 1 figure, 7 tables. (DCK)

173

Resid conversion through 2000. Fritz, B.R.; Gray, A.M. Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 289305(Spr 1982).

A review of the refinery-product demand trends and updated projections examines some of the processing alternatives for making the needed adjustments in refinery yields through resid conversion. The review focuses on actual 1980 data and forecasts for the year 2000. The current oversupply and declining-price situation is likely an aberration rather than a reversal of the expected trend. The conclusions reached by this analysis are that: (1) the US will need more than one million barrels per day of vacuum resid-conversion capacity, and worldwide demand will be more than three million to balance product supply with demand by 2000; (2) the forecasted product requirements favor maximization of middle distillates and disfavor gasoline production, especially in the US; (3) ebullated-bed hydrocracking and vacuum residue desulfurization followed by coking provide high levels of conversions with proved technology and satisfactory economics; and (4) process flexibility, to adjust to changing feedstocks and product demand (price) structures, and potential for process improvement are important considerations. 4 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

174

see how gas prices will change. The review covers the Natural Gas Act of 1938, the 1954 Phillips v. Wisconsin decision, and the Natural Gas Pricing Act of 1978 to show that the market is historically a better allocator of resources than regulation. The market distortions caused by continued price controls warrant immediate or, at least, accelerated decontrol. Failure to do so will undermine national energy policy and ultimately increase consumer prices. (DCK)

175

Two-step approach with mathematical model optimizes oil inventories. Schutt, E.C.; Srinivasan, N. (Amoco Oil Co., Chicago, Ill). Oil and Gas Journal; 80: No. 3, 8488(18 Jan 1982).

A two-step approach, employing a relatively simple mathematical inventory model was developed to minimize refinery oil inventories. A discussion is presented of two key areas that should be included in hydrocarbon inventory planning, minimum operating inventory, and inventory level optimization. The discussion on inventory level optimization encompasses the development and application of a relatively simple, yet effective, mathematical inventory model. 1 refs.

177

Oil and national security: an integrated program for surviving an oil crisis. Rowen, H.S.; Weyant, J.P. (Stanford Univ., Calif). Annual Review of Energy; 6: 171198(1981).

A number of supply-side measures have been considered to soften any ill effect from a major interruption of Persian Gulf oil supplies, in addition to the use of oil stockpiles and emergency tariffs. The combined potential of the incremental-supply possibilities for the United States in a crisis comes to the equivalent of around 2 million bbl/d average for one year. The major components of this addition are: stored natural gas, fuel switching to coal by electric utilities and industry, increased oil and gas production, and moreintensive operation of nuclear power plants. Outside of the United States, the principal extra non-Persian Gulf supplies for an emergency are: increasing oil production to capacity levels (assumed to add a million bbl/d), storage of natural gas, and more-intensive use of coal and nuclear plants (which is likely to require substantial coal stock-piling). This potential adds up to a total of 2.5 million bbl/d for one year. 55 refs.

178 World oil availability: the role of OPEC policies. Fesharaki, F. (East-West Resources Systems Inst., Honolulu, Hawaii). Annual Review of Energy; 6: 267-308(1981).

The new "bean-counting" approach, which examines the technical, economic, and political factors that affect OPEC nations' perceptions and policy options, can lead to far-more-realistic evaluations of world oil availability in the 1980s. In general, by 1990, OPEC oil exports will decline by 15-40%, and the world oil trade could shrink by 30%. Little reflief is expected from non-OPEC oil producers in the developed, developing, and Communist regions. OPEC nations' pricing is expected to be based on regional considerations, with wide variations in price between different qualities of crude oil that ignore the traditional differentials mechanism. In all, the world economy remains unprepared to cope with the fundamental changes brought about by OPEC. 40 refs.

2950 Hydrogen And Synthetic Fuels

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 30, 99, 132, 151, 152, 153, 154

180

(PB-82-203647) Estimated capacity of U.S. ethanol plants. Staff report. Gill, M.; Dargan, A.D. (Economic Research Service, Washington, DC (USA). National Economics Div.). Feb 1982. 38p. NTIS, PC A03/MF A01.

This report presents and explains data on U.S. alcohol fuel production capacity for 1980-83. The major feedstock used is corn because of its availability and the technical ease of conversion to alcohol by means of the well-known fermentation process. The Corn Belt is currently the leading alcohol fuel production region. The estimates of likely, optimistic, and highly optimistic capacity by the end of 1983 are 1.5, 1.7, and 2 billion gallons, respectively. These estimates indicate that the national alcohol fuel production goal of 60,000 barrels per day (920 million gallons per year) by the end of 1982 will not be achieved.

181

United States Synthetic Fuels Corporation. Maggin, D.L. (Train, Smith Counsel, Inc., New York, NY). pp 1.1-1.46 of Alternative energy: the Federal role. Buck, L.E.; Goodwin, L.M. (eds.). Colorado Springs, CO; Shepard's/McGraw-Hill (1982).

The Energy Security Act of 1980 created the Synthetic Fuels Corporation (SFC) to expedite private development of synthetic fuels and to reduce US dependence on energy imports. The SFC is designed to offer financial incentives to businesses that will build and operate synthetic fuel facilities. Chapter 1 covers goals, organization, selection of directors, and operating procedures. The legislation specifies the procedures for soliciting and reviewing proposals and evaluating projects. It provides five mechanisms for financial assistance: price guarantees, purchase agreements, loan guarantees, loans, and joint ventures. The three appendices cover board appointments and appropriations, organizing, and by-laws. 92 references. (DCK)

182

Invisible hydrogen war. Ward, P. Energy (Calgary, Canada); 1: No. 4, 24-28(Nov-Dec 1981).

The author strongly advocates the view that Canada should become active in the development of electrolytic hydrogen as an energy storage medium which can be used in transportation. Only 1% of Canada's present hydrogen production comes from electrolysis. The largest electrolytic plant, operated by Cominco, produces 36 tons per day for ammonia synthesis. Although at present it is cheaper to produce hydrogen from fossil fuels, in the future large amounts may be produced electrolytically from James Bay hydroelectricity or nuclear electricity. Use of electrolytic hydrogen to upgrade heavy oil or bitumen from the tar sands may likely precede its direct commercial use in transportation. The author considers present federal funding of hydrogen research and development to be inadequate, but believes there is considerable interest on the part of the Ontario Government. A pilot project for hydrogen-powered buses in Kingston, Ontario is mentioned.

183

Peat for energy development program: an overview of program goals and accomplishments. Jeffrey, J.; Kuo, D.M.T. (UOP Inc., McLean, VA). Proceedings, Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference; 1: 55-58(1981). (CONF-810812—).

From IECEC conference; Atlanta, GA, USA (9 Aug 1981). The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a peat development program in 1976 to develop an economical and environmentally acceptable technology for converting this geologically young coal to substitute natural gas (SNG). The DOE program has since been expanded and this paper describes research and development activities. 3 refs.

2960 Electric Power

184

(DOE/CE-0007/1) Power and transmission rate orders and related documents. Office of Power Marketing Coordination, data compiled January 1, 1980-December 31, 1981. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, Washington, DC). Aug 1982. 223p. NTIS, PC A10/MF A01. Order Number DE83001105.

This publication contains the power and transmission rate orders and related documents issued by the Department of Energy. It covers calendar years 1980 and 1981. The first publication, DOE/CE-007 covering the period from March through December 1979, was published July 1981. This publication is a compilation of all rate orders issued by the Assistant Secretary for Resource Applications and the Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy during calendar years 1980 and 1981 under Delegation Order No. 0204-33. It also includes all final approvals, remands, and disapprovals by the FERC, and a petition to the FERC for reconsideration by a Power Marketing Administration during 1980 and 1981. Also included are two delegation orders along with an amendment and a supplement to one delegation order, a departmental order on financial reporting, and Power and Transmission Rate Adjustment Procedures relating to federal power marketing.

185 (DOE/RG/10367-T12) Final technical report for the information dissemination system of the Department of Energy's Economic Regulatory Administration. (Systems and Applied Sciences Corp., Riverdale, MD (USA)). 1982. Contract AC01-80RG10367. 64p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE83000583.

Portions of document are illegible.

The Department of Energy's (DOE), Economic Regulatory Administration (ERA) had a requirement to report to Congress on determinations made by State regulatory authorities and nonregulated utilities regarding their purposes of Title I and III of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978. The purposes stated in PURPA were to promote conservation of energy supplied by utilities, efficiency in the use of utilities, and equitable rates for utility consumers. ERA was required to assist State regulatory authorities and nonregulated utilities in carrying out their PURPA responsibilities by implementing information dissemination activities. The technical and administrative support for implementing ERA's information data base to their user audience is discussed.

Portions of document are illegible.

The papers included in this volume were presented at the Third EPRI Symposium on Electric Utility Load Forecasting held in Kansas City, Missouri in March 1981. The symposium was organized to provide electric utility forecasters an opportunity to learn the current state of the art from colleagues in the industry. Proceedings of the first two symposia have been published by EPRI (EPRI EA-1035-SR and EPRI EA-1729-SR). The emphasis of all of the symposia has been on practice and application. In the Third Symposium, sessions were devoted to data problems, EPRI's efforts to enhance the flow of information on forecasting, forecasting sales, hourly load forecasting, and other topics. Nineteen papers were submitted for publication in the proceedings.

motors that drove individual machines. The electrification of mechanical drive proceeded in three stages: at first, large electric motors simply replaced prime movers in turning long line shafts; then, machines were divided into groups along shorter shafts, and each group was powered by a separate smaller motor; finally, shafting was eliminated and each machine was run by its own electric motor. The use of electricity reduced slightly the energy required to drive machinery and sometimes the total cost of running machinery. More important, electric drive enabled industry through innovation in factory organization to get greater output per unit of capital and labor input. This increase in productivity in manufacturing strongly influenced the relationship between energy consumption and gross national product in the first half of the twentieth century.

188

(P-300-82-007) Integrated supply and demand report on electricity. Volume I. Technical report. (California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, Sacramento (USA)). 2 Jul 1982. 549p. California Energy Commission, 1111 Howe Ave., Sacramento, CA 95825. Order Number DE82906498.

Portions of document are illegible.

A statewide summary and critique of key aspects of utility resource plans in California is presented. The summary is broken into the following components: capacity, energy, fuel displacement, progress toward preferred resource development, financial aspects, electricity rates, environmental issues and critique. Following the summary and critique is an assessment of need. It shows that utilities will need 94,573 GWh by 1994. Since utilities are planning additions of about 103,000 GWh, they are planning on adding more energy than will be needed. This amounts to about 8500 GWh or roughly 1500 MW.

189

(P-300-82-008) Integrated supply and demand report on electricity. Volume II: appendices. (California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, Sacramento (USA)). 2 Jul 1982. 258p. California Energy Commission, 1111 Howe Avenue, Sacramento, CA 95825. Order Number DE82906494.

Portions of document are illegible.

The following appendixed information to the report of the California Energy Commission on electric power demand and generation forecasts to 1994 is presented: the financial condition of utilities; analysis of utility costs; summary of utility resource plans; demand forecasts by service area; and method used for computing reserve margins. (LCL)

190

Solid-waste-management

(TVA/PUB-82/12) policy analysis. Cox, D.B.; Ginn, R.H.; Giordano, P.M.; Hodges, J.C.; Mummert, P.J.; Needy, J.L.; Parker, F.G.; Patterson, D.A.; Point, J.N. (Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga (USA); Tennessee Valley Authority, Muscle Shoals, AL (USA); Tennessee Valley Authority, Knoxville (USA)). Nov 1981. 71p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01. Order Number DE82905985.

Portions of document are illegible.

TVA's role in solid waste management community assistance activities has evolved and undergone program modification over the past decade. The purpose of this policy analysis is to determine the need for appropriate changes in program emphasis in light of TVA's corporate objectives in economic development and resource conservation. Additional reasons which warrant evaluation of TVA's future role in this area include increased Federal emphasis on states, local government, and the private sector shouldering major responsibilities for meeting local/regional solid waste management needs. Review of TVA solid waste program activities over the past five years revealed that budgets and staff time have been concentrated in the following priority areas: (1) energy-fromwaste, (2) collection and disposal of municipal wastes, (3) disposal and utilization of municipal wastewater sludge, (4) hazardous waste management, and (5) resource recovery and recycling. Office of Economic and Community Development (OECD) supports the interoffice team recommendation to shift TVA's program emphasis in the future to the following areas of priority: (1) hazardous waste management; (2) resource recovery and recycling, especially of industrial waste; (3) collection and disposal of municipal wastes; (4)

energy-from-waste; and (5) disposal and utilization of municipal sludge. The most immediate change resulting from the team's recommendations would be a scaling down of TVA's activities in energy-from-waste and in design assistance to local governments in collection and disposal of municipal wastes.

191

Top 100 electric utilities' 1981 operating performance. Smock, R. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 8, 1115(Aug 1982).

The top 100 investor-owned utilities experienced a slowing in peak-load growth and an increase in generating-reserve margins during 1981. Data from the Uniform Statistical Reports compares 1981 fuel consumption, heat rate, generating-capacity additions, and transmission/distribution systems. Milder weather in 1981 brought the 1980 peak of 5.4% down to 1.2%, suggesting a peak-load growth rate of 3% that is independent of the climate or state of the economy. No power blackouts are likely with reserve margins continuing at 26%. Fuel-consumption data show that the big gas-to-oil switch at the top 100 utilities has ended; also, oil consumption continued to plummet (-12.3%). The 1981 trends in generation were a decline in hydro and increases in coal-fired and nuclear output, with kWh production about the same as 1980. 8 tables. (DCK)

192

Hookup charge $1000: a utility's bold initiative to retard capacity growth. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 8, 49(Aug 1982).

Kissimee, Florida wants to impose $1000 surcharges on new residences to encourage conservation and slow the demand for new capacity by sending a direct signal on the cost of new capacity to its customers. The $1000 fee is only an increment of the total cost, but it represents a compromise with the city which allows a connection charge for new residences and a proportional charge for commercial buildings. The objections of builders led to a study on ways to rebate the $1000 if approved conservation measures are taken, while financial institutions debate te validity of higher payments for energy-efficient housing. City officials disagree on the net financial benefit, but they anticipate City Council will pass the proposal. The final test will be to convince home buyers. 1 table. (DCK)

193

FERC to test competitive pricing of bulk power. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 7, 1, 17(Jul 1982).

A test demonstration to see if bulk-power transactions can develop competitive markets is one of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC's) first ventures into utility price deregulation. The voluntary experiments will involve both the public and private sectors of the industry and provide a role for public utility commissions. The experiments can be either abandoned or expanded according to their success. Ratepayers should benefit from the two-phase market-like pricing experiment. (DCK)

194

NARUC calls EEI's ad campaign alarmist; says it conflicts with facts. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 7, 1, 20(Jul 1982).

An Edison Electric Institute (EEI) ad campaign opposing utility regulation is called alarmist by the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), which is issuing counter-ads to give ratepayers the opportunity for a balanced view. The $2.5 million EEI campaign has used numerous public figures in a call for utility rate relief to save the industry from impending failure. NARUC questions EEI's premises and notes that higher rates were granted in 1981 than in previous years and that utility revenues have increased despite declining sales. (DCK)

195

Public utility commissions seek to displace growing rate awards with more-efficient company management. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 7, 8, 20(Jul 1982).

Public utility commissions (PUCs) want electric utilities to improve their financial position with better management rather than seeking rate relief. PUCs had been easing regulations, but now believe utilities cannot go further in shifting business risks to the ratepayers. A program of management incentives is a response to claims from entrepreneurs and nonutility executives that various technologies are now available to provide cheaper electricity than traditional power plants. The choice of technologies should be left to the market place, with indexed rate increases replacing frequent

rate reviews. There is a public-relations as well as economic value to managerial incentive schemes because the public will support increased efficiency. Several states are experimenting with bulk sales, incentive rates of return, and management incentive awards. (DCK)

196

Facing financial woes, public power turns to energy-services planning. Utroska, D. Electric Light and Power; 60: No. 7, 12-14(Jul 1982).

The public-power sector of the electric-utility industry is expanding its traditional role of being only an energy supplier to include a range of energy services that will help customers control their electric bills. The new concept assumes responsibility for helping customers take advantage of conservation, cogeneration, load management, and alternative-energy opportunities. Many of the financial incentives now in practice are seen as negative responses, but there is agreement that utility-consumer cooperation should address both utility efficiency ad consumer unrest over rising bills and the capital costs of utility construction programs. The industry's goal is to retain financial flexibility because there are no assurances of how long the current decline in demand will last. 3 figures. (DCK)

197

Ownership form, the output rate and the demand for inputs: the case of electric utilities. Vaughn, G.A. (American Petroleum Inst., Washington, DC); Rives, J.M. Applied Economics; 14: No. 3, 305-314(Jun 1982).

The authors expand on Peltzman's observation that utilityoutput effects may be linked to ownership form because privately owned firms probably exploit profit opportunities more thoroughly. They argue that ownership form can affect the firm's taste for price discrimination rather than its levels of sales and output. At the same time, rate-of-return regulation can affect the private firm's output decisions while not changing its taste for price discrimination. Public firms' output decisions may also be affected if they manage cross subsidies. 21 references, 1 table.

198

Seasonal variation in residential electricity demand: evidence from survey data. Archibald, R.B.; Finifter, D.H.; Moody, C.E. Jr. (Coll. of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA). Applied Economics; 14: No. 2, 167181(Apr 1982).

Twelve monthly electricity-demand equations for households are estimated, using a detailed microdata set. The microdata are based largely on a detailed 1975 survey of US households and include variables enabling us to measure block price schedules, family income, socio-demographic variables, appliance stocks, housing characteristics, and heating-and-cooling-degree days of single-family units. Price elasticities are found to be higher (in absolute value) during peak periods of demand. Income elasticity estimates show no discernible seasonal pattern. The disaggregated data also allow estimation of the seasonal usage patterns of several electricity-using appliances. The estimates follow expected patterns. 17 references, 2 figures, 4 tables.

199

Electrification in Australia. Falk, J.E. (Wollongong Univ. (Australia)). Current Affairs Bulletin; 58: No. 10, 16-26(Mar 1982).

Issues related to the expansion of electricity generation have become major focusses of public controversy. This concern over environmental consequences is likely to be directly exacerbated by the proposed expansion of the energy intensive aluminium industry. Another souce of concern is the effect on Australia of the decline in the nuclear market. Paradoxically this slump is increasing the pressure fo the construction of nuclear reactors and other parts of the nuclear fuel cycle. An examination of electrical expansion in Australia reveals a need for national co-ordination and planning.