Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis

Outline of survey concerning decommissioning of nuclear facilities, (2). Genshiryoku Iinkai Geppo; 25: No. 10, 32-38(Jan 1981). (In Japanese).

This survey aimed at investigating into the present state in Europe and America concerning the measures taken after nuclear facilities have finished their missions and purposes, and making the data required for promoting the design and construction of nuclear facilities hereafter in reference to the conditions in Japan. The Decommissioning Research Committee was organized in the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, and the following items were studied. (1) Case study on the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, (2) the survey on the laws and regulations concerning the decommissioning in foreign countries, and (3) the survey on the state of executing the decommissioning in Europe and America and the related literatures. Four special sub-committees of planning and general matters, dismantling techniques, decontamination and abandonment, and reprocessing and hot laboratory were established. There were 486 unused facilities in the U.S. as of 1976, and their decommissioning will be carried out by dividing into 87 projects in 20 years. The OECD expects the decommissioning of 45 nuclear power stations in 25 years, and carries out the research about it. The situations in Great Britain, West Germany, France and others are briefly explained. The definition and features of recent decommissioning methods, the amount of radioactive wastes produced by decommissioning and others are shown.

Breeder reactor in a changing world. McCarty, L.H. (General Electric Co., Sunnyvale, Calif). Proceedings, Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference; 2: 1584-1588(1981). (CONF-810812-).

From IECEC conference; Atlanta, GA, USA (9 Aug 1981). The authors indicate that breeder reactors will be required to supplant light water reactors as they are retired, starting in the 2005-2025 period. An effective RandD program is said to assure availability of a safe, reliable, economical breeder. 7 refs.

Progress in the United States Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor development program. Longenecker, J.R. (US DOE, Washington, DC). Proceedings, Intersociety Energy Conversion Conversion Engineering Conference; 2: 15891591(1981). (CONF-810812-).

From IECEC conference; Atlanta, GA, USA (9 Aug 1981). Determining the most-logical LMFBR program strategy that can bring the technology to a state of commercial readiness in a timely and cost-effective manner is discussed. Realizing the uncertainties in the need date for the LMFBR, an approach is described which will pursue a program during the next decade that builds on the existing program experience, and that will achieve results that provide the program flexibility to accommodate a range of commercial introduction dates.

Solutions to the breeder impasse in the U.S.: abundant electricity from renewable nuclear fuel. Loewenstein, W.; Winkleblack, R.K. Proceedings, Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference; 2: 1599-1602(1981). (CONF810812-).

From IECEC conference; Atlanta, GA, USA (9 Aug 1981). The authors indicate that experienced engineers can be carefully directed to design a truly superior, economical, and safe large breeder plant and that competitive plant can be built, providing the basis for future electricity generation using United States resources. Such an accomplishment will serve toward make the U.S. self-sufficient in resources to produce electric power.

Papers presented to the 11 World power conference "Power for our peace" held in Munich in September, 1980 are shortly surveyed. A few papers were devoted to nuclear power, and represents its present state-of-the-art in the world. Except for the paper presented by experts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), there is carefulness and realism with respect to nuclear power for the most part; its forecasted growth rates are rather moderate. Even in the IEA paper the total world nuclear installed capacity in 1985 is evaluated as about 550 GW, which is substantially smaller than earlier evaluations. It is acknowledged that the primary energy production in almost all countries will increase mainly due to nuclear power and coal. But there are no answers to the problems related to management of nuclear power development and to the public opinion in many countries. It is emphasized that the problems of world power can be solved only on an international basis.

Recent developments in the law relating to uranium. Browne, A.A. Australian Mining and Petroleum Law Journal; 3: 291-312(1981).

From 5. Australian Mining and Petroleum Law Association conference; Melbourne, Australia (1981).

This paper concentrates on four recent areas of legal significance to the uranium industry in Australia. These are: (1) ammendments to the Atomic Energy Act and the review which has been made of the Act; (2) international safeguards agreements and other marketing considerations; (3) Commonwealth regulation and codes of practice; and (4) legislative developments in the Northern Territory.

Conflicting views on a neutrality criterion for radioactive-waste management. Bodde, D.L.; Cochran, T.B. College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland (1981). 26p. $2.00.

Public debate over the management of radioactive wastes illustrates the moral dilemma of intergenerational justice. Because of low priority, there has been no permanent disposal of high-level radioactive wastes or decontamination and decommisioning of reactors. The problem is now receiving public attention because of the near depletion of temporary storage capacity, the deferral of reprocessing, and concerns for the safe transport and disposal of hazardous materials. Two authors examine the criterion of neutrality in which the risks of radioactive wastes can be balanced by the risks future generations would face without the opportunity for nuclear power. They disagree, however, in whether the model can possibly represent the real world and whether that risk is a significant consideration. 27 references, 1 figure. (DCK)

Die rol van kernkrag, gesien teen die agtergrond van die energietekort in die wereld. (Role of nuclear energy against the background of the worldwide energy crisis). Roux, A.J.A. (Uranium Enrichment Corp. of South Africa, Ltd., Pretoria). Pretoria, South Africa; Van Schaik's (1980). 20p.

The availability, consumption and conservation of energy sources like oil, coal, natural gas and uranium and the distribution of these sources are discussed. The article also discusses the possible solution to the energy crisis in the future on the short, medium and long term and the position of South Africa in this regard.

Safety of nuclear power plants and environmental protection. Ablewicz, Z. (Biuro Studiow i Projektow 'Energoprojekt', Warsaw (Poland)). Przeglad Budowlany; 52: No. 10-11, 593-595(1980). (In Polish).

General information about the 7th scientific and technical conference concerning nuclear power engineering is given. The aim of the conference was to disseminate the results of researches and technical investigations associated with the development of the nuclear power industry and environmental protection; particular emphasis was paid to problems associated with the construction of Poland's first nuclear power plant at Zarnowiec. The article also brings conclusions from the conference.

2908 Waste Heat Utilization

Britain stays cool on district heating. Jones, G. New Scientist; 94: 94-96(8 Apr 1982).

Britain's wealth of energy sources has kept interest in the energy conservation potential of combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating (DH) at a low level. An active lobby for CHP/ DH continues to argue against formidable odds. The Marshall group set up in the early days of the oil crisis reported on several strategies for CHP/DH and proposed technologies already proven in other European countries. The economics of abundant natural gas and coal, however, precludes commercial interest until energy prices reach higher levels. The lobbyists point out that this could occur within a short time, and local governments would do well to examine the lead-city concept for application on a national level. The present government's preference for the private sector pursuing development beyond the feasibility-study stage could make CHP/DH more of a political issue as unemployment increases. (DCK)

Cogeneration and small power production. Siler, D.A. (Patton, Boggs and Blow, Washington, DC). pp 7.17.34 of Alternative energy: the Federal role. Buck, L.E.; Goodwin, L.M. (eds.). Colorado Springs, CO; Shepard's/ McGraw-Hill (1982).

This chapter examines the federal government's regulatory program to encourage the production of electric power by cogeneration facilities and by small-scale generating facilities. The program mandated in sections 201 and 210 of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act reflects Congress's conclusion that the US should adopt policies to promote rather than obstruct the use of reject heat and the decentralization of facilities. A detailed summary of sections 201 and 210 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's regulations covers the statutory and regulatory criteria for qualifying and operating facilities, transactions between qualifying facilities and utilities, regulatory exemptions, and regulatory benefits. 150 references.

Cogeneration energy systems show promising market potential in residential and commercial sector over next twenty-five years. Teotia, A.P.S.; Davis, A.A.; Poyer, D. (Argonne National Lab., Ill). Proceedings, Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference; 1: 528-533(1981). (CONF-810812-).

From IECEC conference; Atlanta, GA, USA (9 Aug 1981). Under its energy-conservation programs, the U.S. Department of Energy has been actively involved in the research and development of cogeneration systems to meet energy demands in the residential and commercial sectors. The market potential of various cogeneration systems was estimated by using an econometric and probabilistic methodology. Research has shown that the cogeneration systems residential/commercial market penetration could result in annual scarce-fuel savings of 1.5 to 1.9 quads by the year 2004. 6 refs.

2910 Conservation

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 41, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 158, 205

(CONF-8011131-, pp 123-140) Effects of an employee transportation program. Owens, R.D. (3M Co., St. Paul, MN). 1980. NTIS, PC A12/MF A01. Order Number DE82009451.

From 8. annual Illinois energy conference; Chicago, IL, USA (19 Nov 1980).

In order to accommodate the future space necessary for parking at the 3M Center in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, the company initiated Ride Guide (carpooling), Subscription Buses, Commute-A-Van, and Staggered Work Hours programs in 1972 and 1973. The programs, their performance, and benefits are summarized. (MCW)

(NP-2904708) Nebraska energy conservation plan for the Weatherization Assistance Program, April 1 to December 31, 1982. (Nebraska Energy Office, Lincoln (USA)). 1982. 70p. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01 - Nebraska Energy Office, PO Box 95085, Lincoln, NE, 68509 $12.50. Order Number DE82904708.

Portions of document are illegible.

The State of Nebraska, Nebraska Energy Office, is applying to the United States Department of Energy for $1,869,831 in Weatherization Assistance funds. These funds will be used to assist low-income residents of Nebraska in the weatherization of their homes. Weatherization consists of implementing those measures, within a dollar limit of $1200 per home, which will make the dwelling more energy efficient. Typical measures include: insulation, caulking, weatherstripping, sealing and tightening of primary doors and windows and installation of storm windows. The Energy Office proposes to serve Nebraska residents who receive an income of 125% of the federally established poverty level for Nebraska, or below. Services will be delivered to these residents by public entities which are contracted to the Nebraska Energy Office for this purpose. Those entities are ten Community Action agencies and the Inter-tribal Development Corporation. The State assures that all federal mandates and requirements in regard to priorities, procedures and expenditures will be met. Public input to the attached plan, for the purpose of administering the Weatherization Program in Nebraska, was solicited from the Program Advisory Committee (PAC), from all Community Action Agencies in the State and from the general populace, through the use of a public hearing. Projections of dwellings to be weatherized, the percentage of those which fall into federally considered categories and the amount of energy to be conserved through the program are made and included.

The benefits and applications of five irrigation technologies are explored: mobile drop-tube irrigation, computerized scheduling, reduced-pressure center pivots, well design and development, and automated gated-pipe systems. Perhaps the most promising of the new irrigation technologies is the low-energy, precision-application (LEPA) system. This mobile system used one-half the energy of conventional sprinkler systems and distributes water with greater efficiency through a series of low-pressure drop tubes suspended above the crop. Computerized methods of irrigation scheduling have been developed to help farmers conserve water and energy. Special computer programs determine when a crop needs water and how much to apply for optimal plant growth, thus preventing the unnecessary costs of pumping more water than the crop needs. Field test results show that replacing traditional scheduling methods of irrigation with computerized scheduling can reduce energy and water use by as much as 35%. The irrigation industry is actively promoting reduced-pressure water application methods, particularly for center-pivot systems. Reduced-pressure systems expend less energy but produce the same crop yields as conventional highpressure systems, as long as excessive water runoff does not occur. If well design and development techniques are applied when a well is drilled into an unconsolidated acquifer, the well's life expectancy, as well as its operating efficiency, can increase, the later by as much as 40%.

(PNL-SA-10584) Implementation of voluntary residential energy-efficiency rating/labeling systems. Hendrickson, P.L. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)). 1982. Contract AC06-76RL01830. 20p. (CONF820849-11). NTIS, PC A02/MF A01. Order Number DE83002002.

From Summer study in energy efficient buildings; Santa Cruz, CA, USA (22 Aug 1982).

Voluntary residential energy-efficiency rating systems are receiving increasing attention. The greatest number of rating systems have been implemented by investor-owned utilities affiliated with the National Energy Watch Program of Edison Electric Institute. Other utility programs and programs initiated by units of local government have also been implemented. The programs offer the potential of reduced energy consumption and enhanced marketplace recognition of energy efficient properties by providing energy efficiency information. This paper provides an introduction to the concept, identification of likely beneficiaries, identification and discussion of the three principal categories of rating systems, a summary of existing implementation efforts, and an identification of implementation and technical issues meriting research. The issues of potential liability for negligently performed ratings and the relationship of a rating to residential energy audits are also discussed.

Life-cycle costing for light controls gaining acceptance. Galvin, C. Energy User News; 7: No. 35, 1, 8(30 Aug 1982).

Life-cycle cost estimates are helping energy managers convince corporations that lighting controls are cost-effective investments. Life-cycle costs are more useful than simple payback calculations because they include future inflation rates, electricity costs, and the operating and replacement costs. Examples of the accounting procedures at four facilities cover life-cycle costing at the Wisconsin Center, simple payback plus return on investment at Johnson and Johnson in New Jersey, and simple payback at the Equitable Plaza and the Inglewood City Hall, both in California. (DCK)

Capital pinch seen cutting firms' conservation budgets. Deans, B. Energy User News; 7: No. 33, 1, 6, 8(16 Aug 1982).

Energy managers are promoting low-risk, cost-effective conservation projects to counteract the limited capital available for overall business investments, although conservation budgets at most firms will decline between 15 and 50%. Many firms are now requiring 35% and higher return on investment and paybacks of one year or less. Companies that have capital give conservation projects high priority because of the high cost of energy. Profits and long-term credit are the traditional sources of corporate capital, but the recession and high interest rates have tightened discretionary spending. Several firms are experimenting with shared-savings, reduced spending, and other alternatives to fund conservation. (DCK)

and Building occupants expect heat or cool air comfort. Kurtz, L.F. (Better Heating-Cooling Council, Berkeley Heights, NJ). Energy User News; 7: No. 33, 18(16) Aug 1982).

Building occupants expect and demand thermal comfort from their heating and cooling systems. Standardized residential comfort systems already exist, but maintaining comfort in commercial buildings is more complex. To keep occupants unaware of temperature, drafts, humidity, ventilation, or sound levels is a relative goal since variations in metabolism and activity will affect comfort levels. The 1981 ASHRAE Fundamentals Handbook lists acceptable comfort levels at several combinations of temperature and relative humidity. The effects that rate of air movement and evaporation have must also be considered by building engineers who base their systems on convection patterns and zoning. Economy as well as comfort favors hydronics in commercial and public buildings because it introduces heat at a low level and cooled air at a high level. (DCK)

costs in a way that highlights the energy value of conservation projects. This accounting approach helps management see that the return on conservation projects has increased faster than the rate of inflation. Tenneco's pursuit of higher productivity extends to labor, capital, and materials as well as energy resources. Data collection is the first step, followed by a ranking of possible projects. Continuous monitoring and energy use figures from each plant track the trend of energy value over time. Specific projects at Tenneco's energy-intensive operations of refining, shipbuilding, and food processing illustrate the company's energy management program. (DCK)

Figuring on energy: vested interests. Schaffer, P. Energy User News; 7: No. 30, 14-15(26 Jul 1982).

The tough economic environment assures that private enterprise will not encourage either the research or capital investment in energy conservation that the DOE has been underwriting. Equipment vendors may be able to introduce some innovations, but most of the energy vendors with a vested interest in sales may have to produce most of the innovation through the Electric Power Research Institute, the Gas Research Institute, and Bituminous Coal Research, Inc. Conflicting technological innovations could become a problem for users. (DCK)

Domestic energy conservation and the consumer. Bagshaw, M. (Univ. of Bradford, England). Journal of Consumer Studies and Home Economics; 6: No. 2, 183-189(Jun 1982).

This study identifies factors influencing the behavior of the household in energy conservation, and reports on a survey carried out to investigate knowledge in the area of energy and its conservation and the extent to which knowledge is put into practice to save energy. The survey showed that, among working-class women, the need to reduce the bill, or at least stop it rising so fast is the greatest incentive to conservation. Knowledge of how and where heat is lost from the house is poor and there is little awareness of the need for insulation. Conservation practices in cooking are poor and, where money is less tight, women easily become careless users of hot water. Most women do not have the knowledge to choose between fuels and appliances. The knowledge of women over 60 is significantly lower than that of younger women. 4 references, 3 figures, 1 table.

Annual review of energy, volume 6, 1981. Hollander, J.M.; Simmons, M.K.; Wood, D.O. (eds.). Palo Alto, CA; Annual Reviews, Inc., (1981). 551p.

This volume is a collection of 17 papers on the state of development of economically viable substitutes for oil and on methods of achieving or enhancing energy conservation. Topics discussed include an update of solar energy technology, the implications of the Three Mile Island accident, the potential of biomass energy from agriculture, probabilistic risk analysis of energy technologies, wood energy in the United States, a program for decreasing U.S vulnerability during an oil crisis, energy conservation in new buildings, factors in U.S. synthetic fuels development, the role of OPEC policies in world oil availability, the role of local governments in promoting energy efficiency, energy implications of fixedrail mass transit, the social impacts of soft and hard energy systems, energy consumption by industry, an economic comparison of different types of power plants in the Chicago area, the dissemination of energy information, and the role of petroleum price and allocation regulations in managing energy shortages. A separate abstract was prepared for each of 15 papers.

100

Prospects for improved fuel economy and fuel flexibility in road vehicles. Francis, R.J.; Woollacott, P.N. London, England; Her Majesty's Stationery Office (1981). 118p. (NP-2906471). H.M.S.O., London, England, £ 6.20. Order Number DE82906471.

Various technical options for improving the fuel economy and fuel flexibility of road vehicles in the United Kingdom are examined. Fuel economy can be improved with sacrifice of performance through the development of engines, transmissions and complete vehicles. Improved fuel flexibility depends entirely on engine developments. The operation, performance, and prospects for im

proved performance of Otto, diesel, gas turbine, Stirling cycle, Brayton cycle, and Rankine cycle automotive engines, and of electric and hybrid electric-powered vehicles, are discussed. Transmission improvements are described. Estimates are made of possible savings of crude oil as the result of using vehicles with improved economy. It is concluded that it should be possible to improve the fuel economy of automobiles by 50% and of trucks by 15%; fuel consumption improvements for advanced conventional engines will exceed those for gas turbine engines or Stirling engines, but these external combustion engines have wider fuel tolerance, better emission characteristics and less noise; and electric vehicle development should be pursued. Considering projected traffic growth, it is estimated that the 50% car and 15% truck fuel economy improvement would result in a fuel saving equivalent to about 40% of the total fuel consumption by all UK vehicles in 1978. (LCL)

101

Role of data in evaluating energy-conservation programs. Hirst, E. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN). Evaluation and Program Planning; 4: 219-228(1981). Contract W-7405ENG-26.

The major uncertainty about energy conservation is not its importance in resolving energy problems, but the role of governments vis-a-vis the free market. During the past few years, both the overall efficiency of energy use and the number of government conservation programs increased sharply. However, the extent to which these efficiency improvements were due to government programs is unclear. A key element in the careful evaluation of these conservation programs is data. Data, particularly on energy consumption, are needed to help sort out the effects of government programs relative to market forces. However, data can serve these purposes only if they are accurate, consistent, comprehensive, accessible, and documented. This paper discusses data requirements and current data sources for careful evaluation of energy-conservation programs. 28 references, 6 figures, 2 tables.

2920 Supply, Demand, And Forecasting

REFER ALSO TO CITATION(S) 128, 133, 155, 156, 157, 167, 177, 178, 198

102 (AECL-7429, pp 49-100) Heavy water production benefits of a supporting r and d program. Bancroft, A.R.; Chuang, K.T.; Dalrymple, D.G. (Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, Ontario. Chalk River Nuclear Labs.). Oct 1981. NTIS (US Sales Only), PC A06/MF A01.

From 2. world congress of chemical engineering; Montreal, Canada (4 Oct 1981).

Considerable economic benefit was obtained from an active R and D program while the Canadian heavy water plants were brought to mature operation during the 1970s. The introduction to Canada of this new chemical processing industry led to unexpected process, equipment and materials problems. Having a small team of technical experts already working on heavy water processes and a much larger R and D team working in related fields allowed a rapid response to the problems that limited production. The number of engineers and scientists working on the GS process rose rapidly from a skeleton team in 1970 to 54 during 1974. Effort declined steadily as the major problems were solved and reached 22 by 1980. Cumulative effort over the decade was 264 man-years at a cost of 3.3 percent of the value of the heavy water produced. The new production benefits have lagged behind the R and D expenditure by a few years and the current spending rate is 1.2 percent of product value. Important contributions were made in the areas of process simulation, process chemistry, materials of construction, sieve trays, and mechanical equipment.

105

Energy security: a continuing debate. Energy Management (Cleveland, Ohio); 8: No. 7, 7-10(Aug 1982). Viewpoint.

Responding to questions from the editor, Georgetown University professor Charles K. Ebinger sees political destabilization, especially in the Middle East, as the major threat to US energy security. He also sees a danger in the world excess in refining capacity and the increasing shift to refining operations by the OPEC nations. He supports a strong industrial reserve as well as completion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in recognition that the energy markets have never been free. Professor David A. Deese notes that the recession, fuel substitution, and the drawdown of existing stocks are as important factors in the current oil glut as the effects of conservation. Political disagreement over the proper federal role in contingency planning is preventing public policies that will define supply and demand crises. Professor William Hogan foresees a tightening in world oil markets and the need to take the opportunity to fill the SPR while the glut continues while discouraging other oil uses through an import tariff. The use of market forces to allocate oil, Hogan feels, allows the federal government to impose windfall taxes, but creates economic problems for the poor and supply problems for some regions. Some of the revenues can be recycled with tax credits or by increasing Social Security or block grant payments. A futures market for the SPR is one approach that merits consideration. (DCK)

106

Energy availability and state economic development. Miernyk, W.H. (West Virginia Univ., Morgantown). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 163-171(Spr 1982).

Thirteen states produce an energy surplus, although the US is an energy-deficient country. Another 13 states maintain a nearbreakeven status on one side or the other, but the remainder and up on the deficit side. The discrepancies affect income transfers between the states and relative per-capita-income changes. The relationship between energy self-sufficiency and relative per-capita income is observed, but only on a long-term basis. Industrial relocation does not appear to have had any significant effect in comparison with the more-rapid changes in energy prices and the revenues of energy taxes from interregional trade. Efforts to limit a state's right to levy taxes on energy resources have failed despite accusations that a cartel of energy-rich states could deny the rights of the consuming states. If Congress were to outlaw severance taxes on fossil fuels, other state levies that fall under the rubric of resource taxes would be vulnerable. 9 references. (DCK)

107

Energy situation in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Abdallah, H. (Ministry of Petroleum, Cairo, Egypt). Journal of Energy and Development; 7: No. 2, 213-224(Spr 1982).

Egypt's energy consumption, particularly oil and electric power, averaged an 11% and 14% growth between 1974-1981. Studies to assess energy demand project that nearly 65 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) will be needed by the year 2000. Egypt's resources include varying amounts of oil, natural gas, hydropower, solar, biomass, coal, and wind. The alarming acceleration of consumption led to the integration of separate petroleum and electricity ministries and the emergence of energy as a top national priority. A Supreme Council of Energy is responsible for energy planning and programs, with authority to enforce implementation. Several bodies responsible for energy research, development, and commercialization are putting together the necessary financial and institutional framework. Rigid pricing of petroleum products and the current subsidies of domestic oil are major constraints along with inflation-control measures and the lack of alternative energy

sources. A review of the petroleum sector appears in the appendix. (DCK)

108

Toplivno-energeticneskaya baza chitinskoi oblasti. (Fuel-energy base of the Chitin Oblast). Kuts, L.I.; Zadorozhnyi, V.F. Novosibirsk, USSR; Izdatel'stvo Nauka (1982). 144p. A demonstration is made of the role played by the fuelenergy base in the fulfillment of the region's most important production functions in the territorial division of labor. A specific place is assigned to a study of the effect the Baikal-Amur trunk line construction and the development of northern trans-Baikal natural resources on the formation of the fuel-energy base, and to the specific interrelationships with new fuel bases of Siberia, and environmental protection in connection with coal mining and processing. The book is designed for geographers, economists, and personnel at planning and design organizations. 50 references, 8 tables.

109

Conventional and unconventional energy sources for mankind. Sethna, H.N. (Atomic Energy Commission, Bombay (India)). Energy Times; 4: No. 10, 3-5,9(Oct-Nov 1981).

Plenty of industrial nations of the world are founded on the fact that only 1% of their energy requirement is met by muscle power, both of human and animal origin, while 99% comes mostly from fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels are not an eternal source and hence, to conserve them, other sources must also be used. Availability of energy sources such as coal, biogas, solar energy, wind, and tidal energy is examined and their draw-backs are pointed out. Another energy source i.e. nuclear energy can however substantially contribute to the energy scene. Fission reactors can contribute nearly 25% of the world energy requirements within two decades. Breeder reactors, if successfully developed, can meet the energy requirements of the world for a few thousands of years. Fusion reactors, if successful for commercial exploitation, will form almost an inexhaustible source of energy. An added advantage is that they produce much less radioactive waste than that produced by fission

reactors.

110

National energy plans in the Asia-Pacific region: proceedings of Workshop 3 of the Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group (APESC), 1980. Pauker, G.J. (ed.). (East-West Center, Resource Systems Inst., Honolulu, Hawaii). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 8, 647-882(Aug 1981). (CONF-800296-).

From 3. workshop of the Asia-Pac Energy Study Consultant Group; Honolulu, HI, USA (25 Feb 1980).

This issue includes a background paper (written in 1978 to suggest guidelines for the first Workshop) and 21 papers from the Workshop. The papers are presented in 7 parts as follows: Part I (2 papers), A Framework for Energy Policies in the Asia-Pacific Region; Part II (3 papers), United States Energy Policies; Part III (2 papers), Energy Policies of Oil-Exporting Countries (Indonesia, China); and Part IV (3 papers), Energy Policies of Industrial OilImporting Countries (Japan, South Korea, Singapore); Part V (4 papers), Energy Policies of Countries more than 50% Dependent on Oil Imports (New Zealand, Western Pacific Islands, Thailand, Phillipines); Part VI (4 papers), Energy Policies of Countries Less than 50% Dependent on Oil Imports (Australia, Bangladesh, Nepal, India); and Part VII (3 papers) The Role of International Institutions in Energy Research (United Nations, OPEC, Latin American). The papers published are revised texts; the participants from Mexico and Pakistan were unable to revise their presentations, which had to be omitted, regretfully, from the publication. Unfortunately, because of prior commitments, participants from Canada and the Phillipines were unable to attend APESC Workshop III, but the Ministry of Energy of the Phillipines made available for publication the presentation that had been prepared. 20 of the papers are indexed separately.

of individual countries on the one hand and of their energy production based on domestic resources on the other. It is then assumed that, hopefully, the difference between the two figures will be covered by imports of crude. This study tackles the problem the other way around, using as a starting point an estimate of what is likely to be exported by the OPEC group in the 1980s. The conclusion arrived at from an analysis of the political and economic forces operating within OPEC is that OPEC will drastically curtail its exports, maybe by as much as 40%. As a result, the non-communist oil-dependent world will face much more acute and difficult energy problems during the 1980s than it did during the 1970s. 15 refs.

112

Regional oil dependency: rising oil import bills, the external accounts, and NOILDC development policies. Siddayao, C.M. (Resource Systems Inst., Honolulu, Hawaii). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 8, 677-696(Aug 1981). (CONF800296-).

From 3. workshop of the Asia-Pac Energy Study Consultant Group; Honolulu, HI, USA (25 Feb 1980).

This paper addresses the issue of the long-term implications for net-oil-importing developing countries (referred to in the paper as "NOILDCs") of high oil import costs. The discussion is divided into three parts: Section II discusses oil dependency in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, both developing and industrialized, in relation to each nation's other energy resources. Section III briefly discusses the energy/GNP link, the resulting demand for imported oil in NOILDCs, and the effect of such imports on these countries' external accounts. This section closes with a discussion of the external debt as a source of foreign exchange, to finance oil and other economic development-related capital imports. Section IV briefly raises some allocative issues that arise in light of the competing demands on foreign exchange of oil imports and capital equipment for development programs. The paper concludes with the suggestion that, over the long-term, external borrowing cannot provide the solution to these import capability problems. 38 refs.

113

U.S. energy demand and supply scenarios: a retrospective appraisal of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences study by the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES). Hollander, J.M. (Univ of Calif, Berkeley). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 8, 699-725(Aug 1981). (CONF800296-).

From 3. workshop of the Asia-Pac Energy Study Consultant Group; Honolulu, HI, USA (25 Feb 1980).

The anticipated energy demand of the CONAES study (EAPA 6:4038) is based on the assumption that the gross national product during this period (1975-2010) will grow at an average rate of either 2 or 3% and that the cost of energy will either remain constant, double or quadruple. The combination of these factors provides eight different scenarios for energy demand. The estimate of energy supply from various sources is worked out as a function of sociopolitical conditions which may either remain substantially unchanged, enhance energy supply by appropriate political action, or else will drive the growth of energy supply to the limit. These assumptions were the starting point for preparing three scenarios for the energy supply, each with a different mix of energy derived from various sources. One conclusion arrived at is that, depending on the policies implemented, vastly different figures (with variations up to 2:1) can be forecasted for energy requirements in the year 2010, without significantly affecting either the standard of living or the lifestyle of Americans. 17 refs.

114

California energy approach: from conventional to alternative energy sources. Varanini, E.E. III. (California Energy Commission, Sacramento). Energy (Oxford); 6: No. 8, 727-731(Aug 1981). (CONF-800296-).

From 3. workshop of the Asia-Pac Energy Study Consultant Group; Honolulu, HI, USA (25 Feb 1980).

The paper outlines the work of a State Government Agency, the California Energy Commission, which is now completing its major analytical task - forecasting California's future energy demand five, ten, and twenty years hence and formulating an optimal state strategy for energy production and conservation. The approach of the Commission was to study, in depth, the evolution of the demand of each category of end users. Supplemented by a realistic assessment of the impact of various conservation measures and

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