younger population. In 1984, the population over 55 was 21 percent of the total U.S. population and the elderly population, age 65-plus, was 12 percent.

It is commonly assumed that today's large numbers and proportion of older persons is caused by increased longevity. In fact, the rise in longevity explains only part of the increase. The primary cause is an increase in the annual number of births prior to 1920 and after World War II.2 The aging of the pre-1920's group, along with a dramatic decline in the birth rate after the mid-1960's, has contributed to the rise in the median age of the U.S. population from 28 in 1970 to 31 in 1984. A 3-year rise in the median age in 14 years is a historic demographic event.

(NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, the statistics in this section on the size and growth of the population are estimates taken from: Spencer, Gregory; Projections of the Population of the United States, By Age, Sex and Race: 1983 to 2080; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952; Middle Series Projections. Population estimates for the years prior to 1984 are from the Decennial Censuses of Population.)

B. AGING OF THE BABY-BOOM

THE GRAYING OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY WITH THE AGING OF THE BABY-BOOM

The projected growth in the older population will raise the median age of the U.S. population from 31 today to 36 by the year 2000 and to age 42 by the year 2050 (chart 1-2). Between 1984 and 2050 the total U.S. population is projected to increase by a third, while the 55-plus population is expected to more than double (table 1-2, chart 1-3). In fact, if current fertility and immigration levels remain stable, the only age groups to experience significant growth in the next century will be those past age 55.

2 Jacob S. Siegel and Maria Davidson, Demographic and Socioeconomic Status of Aging in the United States, U.S. Bureau of The Census, Current Population Reports. Series P-23, No. 138,

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 952.

The increase in the older population is expected to occur in two stages. Through the year 2000, the proportion of the population age 55 and over is expected to remain relatively stable, at just over one in five (22 percent). By 2010, because of the maturation of the babyboom, the proportion of older Americans is projected to rise dramatically; more than one-fourth of the total U.S. population is expected to be at least 55 years old and one in seven Americans will be at least 65 years old. By 2050, one in three persons is expected to be 55 years or older and one in four will be 65-plus.

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CHART 1-2

ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF MEDIAN AGE
OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

1950 to 2050

$35

The increase in the older population is expected to occur in two stages. Through the year 2000, the proportion of the population age 55 and over is expected to remain relatively stable, at just over one in five (22 percent). By 2010, because of the maturation of the babyboom, the proportion of older Americans is projected to rise d' matically; more than one-fourth of the total U.S. population is e pected to be at least 55 years old and one in seven Americans be at least 65 years old. By 2050, one in three persons is expe to be 55 years or older and one in four will be 65-plus.