Page images
PDF
EPUB

SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY AND PUBLIC TRUST: THE

SCIENCE BEHIND FEDERAL POLICIES AND MAN-
DATES: CASE STUDY 2-CLIMATE MODELS AND
PROJECTIONS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

[blocks in formation]

For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office
Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, Washington, DC 20402

ISBN 0-16-052761-9

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE

ROBERT S. WALKER, Pennsylvania, Chairman F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, JR.,

GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California RMM* Wisconsin

RALPH M. HALL, Texas SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT, New York JAMES A. TRAFICANT, JR., Ohio HARRIS W. FAWELL, Illinois

JAMES A. HAYES, Louisiana CONSTANCE A. MORELLA, Maryland JOHN S. TANNER, Tennessee CURT WELDON, Pennsylvania

PETE GEREN, Texas DANA ROHRABACHER, California

TIM ROEMER, Indiana STEVEN H. SCHIFF, New Mexico

ROBERT E. (Bud) CRAMER, JR., Alabama JOE BARTON, Texas

JAMES A. BARCIA, Michigan KEN CALVERT, California

PAUL MCHALE, Pennsylvania BILL BAKER, California

JANE HARMAN, California ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan**

DAVID MINGE, Minnesota ZACH WAMP, Tennessee

JOHN W. OLVER, Massachusetts DAVE WELDON, Florida

ALCEE L. HASTINGS, Florida LINDSEY O. GRAHAM, South Carolina LYNN N. RIVERS, Michigan MATT SALMON, Arizona

KAREN MCCARTHY, Missouri THOMAS M. DAVIS, Virginia

MIKE WARD, Kentucky STEVE STOCKMAN, Texas

ZOE LOFGREN, California
GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota

LLOYD DOGGETT, Texas
ANDREA H. SEASTRAND, California MICHAEL F. DOYLE, Pennsylvania
TODD TIAHRT, Kansas

SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas
STEVE LARGENT, Oklahoma

WILLIAM P. LUTHER, Minnesota
VAN HILLEARY, Tennessee
BARBARA CUBIN, Wyoming
MARK ADAM FOLEY, Florida
SUE MYRICK, North Carolina

DAVID D. CLEMENT, Chief of Staff and Chief Counsel

BARRY BERINGER, General Counsel
TISH SCHWARTZ, Chief Clerk and Administrator
ROBERT E. PALMER, Democratic Staff Director

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT

DANA ROHRABACHER, California, Chairman HARRIS W. FAWELL, Illinois

JAMES A. HAYES, Lousiana CURT WELDON, Pennsylvania

DAVID MINGE, Minnesota ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland

JOHN W. OLVER, Massachusetts
ZACH WAMP, Tennessee

MIKE WARD, Kentucky
LINDSEY O. GRAHAM, South Carolina MICHAEL F. DOYLE, Pennsylvania
MATT SALMON, Arizona

TIM ROEMER, Indiana
THOMAS M. DAVIS, Virginia

ROBERT E. (Bud) CRAMER, JR., Alabama STEVE LARGENT, Oklahoma

JAMES A. BARCIA, Michigan BARBARA CUBIN, Wyoming

PAUL MCHALE, Pennsylvania MARK ADAM FOLEY, Florida

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas STEVEN H. SCHIFF, New Mexico

LYNN N. RIVERS, Michigan
BILL BAKER, California

KAREN MCCARTHY, Missouri
VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan
STEVE STOCKMAN, Texas

[blocks in formation]

CONTENTS

WITNESSES

Page

November 16, 1995:

Panel I-Climate Models

Peter F. Guerrero, Director, Environmental Protection Issues, Resources,

Community, and Economic Development Division, United States Gen-

eral Accounting Office

Dr. Jerry D. Mahlman, Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, Assistant Professor, Department of Environ-

mental Science, University of Virginia

Panel II—Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Dr. Robert T. Watson, Associate Director of Environment, Office of

Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

Dr. William A. Nierenberg, Director Emeritus, Scripps Institution of

Oceanography

David Gardiner, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, Environ-

mental Protection Agency

Dr. Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford

University

Dr. Robert W. Corell, Assistant Director for Geosciences, National Science

Foundation, and Chairman, Subcommittee on Global Change Research

APPENDIX I-OPENING STATEMENTS FOR THE RECORD

The Honorable George E. Brown, Jr., Ranking Democratic Member, Commit-

tee on Science

The Honorable Jimmy Hayes, Ranking Democratic Member, Subcommittee

on Energy and Environment

The Honorable Tim Roemer

APPENDIX II—RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS

Questions submitted by the Honorable Dana Rohrabacher, Chairman, Sub-

committee on Energy and Environment to the Honorable Warren M. Chris-

topher, Secretary of State, the Honorable_Hazel R. O'Leary, Secretary of

Energy, and the Honorable Dr. D. James Baker, Under Secretary of Com-

merce, and Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-

tion

Tab A: Answers to questions

Tab B (Question 1):

• Copy of the IPCC procedures for preparation, review, acceptance,

approval and publication of reports with Annexes 1 and 2 (IPCC

Workshop Policy and Tasks and Responsibilities for Lead Authors,

Contributors and Expert Reviewers of IPCC Reports and IPCC

Contacts)

• Timetable for production of IPCC Second Assessment Report

Tab C (Question 2):

List of individuals involved on the drafting team for the IPCC Synthesis

Report

Page

344

[ocr errors]

345

[ocr errors]

352

[ocr errors]

370 399 400 401

402 404 405 429 430 434 435 437 438 439 512 530 531 537 539 563 575

Tab D (Question 3)
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-

tion of Working Group I to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-

tion of Working Group II to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-

tion of Working Group III to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995
Tab E (Question 4):
Copy of IPCC guidelines for consulting experts
Tab F (Question 5):
Copy of the IPCC procedures regarding the production of "Technical

Papers"
Tab G (Question 7):
Copy of FCCC requested work program for IPCC
Tab H (Question 8):
Copy of SBSTA-II Conclusions
Tab I (Question 9):

• Copy of the IPCC budget for 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997

• Table of contributions to the IPCC, including U.S. contributions Tab J (Question 11):

FCCC prepared report on Annex I Party national communications
• Text of FCCC Secretariat's in-depth review of U.S. communications
Tab K (Question 13):

Copies of FCCC Article 4.1 and Article 12.1
• U.S. intervention from AGBM-3: Developing country commitments
• U.S. AGBM presentation

• 1992 scenario tables
Tab L (Question 14):
Copy of the initial report on an inventory and assessment of technologies

to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Tab M (Question 19):
List of measures considered for analysis and for case study development ..
Tab N (Question 20):
List of references of chapter 18 of IPCC (Annex I)
Tab 0 (Question 21):

Copy of global change and health proposal submitted to CDC and NOAA .
Questions submitted by the Honorable Dana Rohrabacher, Chairman, Sub-

committee on Energy and Environment to the Honorable Warren M. Chris-
topher, Secretary of State, the Honorable Hazel R. O'Leary, Secretary of
Energy, and Dr. Robert T. Watson, Associate Director of Environment,
Office of Science and Technology Policy

Tab A: Answers to questions
Tab B (Question 3)
• Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC

Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information
Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Conven-

tion on Climate Change
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-

tion of Working Group I to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995 (See Tab Ď above in previous letter)
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-
7tion of Working Group II to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995 (See Tab ħ above in previous letter)
Copy of the final text of Summary for Policymakers of the Contribu-

tion of Working Group III to the IPCC Second Assessment Report,

1995 (See Tab D above in previous letter) Tab C (Question 4.c): List of NGOs/USGCRP Tab D (Question 9.b): Figure B4 of IPCC 1992 report

576 588 589 590 591 598 599

611 627 677

677

[ocr errors]

345

352 V

370 705 706

708

804 879 1039 1043 1045

1048 1050 1053 1054

1056

Tab F (Question 14.e):
. Chapter 7 of WGIII: A Generic Assessment of Response Options
• Chapter 8 of WGIII: Estimating the Costs of Mitigating Greenhouse

Gases ....
Chapter 9 of WGIII: A Review of Mitigation Cost Studies
Tab G (Question 17.b): Review of Technical Forecasts (DOE)
Tab H (Question 21.a): SBSTA report on IPCC
Tab I (Question 23.d): TAP interventions
Tab J (Question 26.b): U.S. Interventions at AGBM-3
• March 6, 1996, on Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction

Objectives (QELROS)
• March 6, 1996, on Policies and Measures
• March 7, 1996, on Policies and Measures
• March 7, 1996, on Advancing Article 4.1 Commitments
• March 7, 1996, on Possible Features of a Protocol or Another Legal

Instrument
Questions submitted by the Honorable George E. Brown, Jr., Ranking Demo-
cratic Member, Committee on Science to:
Peter F. Guerrero, Director, Environmental Protection Issues, Resources,

Community, and Economic Development Division, United States Gen

eral Accounting Office
Dr. Jerry D. Mahlman, Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, Associate Professor, Department of Environ-

mental Science, University of Virginia
Dr. Robert T. Watson, Associate Director of Environment, Office of

Science and Technology Policy.
Dr. William A. Nierenberg, Director Emeritus, Scripps Institution of

Oceanography
David Gardiner, Assistant Administrator, Office of Policy, Planning and

Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Dr. Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Dr. Robert W. Corell, Assistant Director for Geosciences, National Science
Foundation, and Chairman, Subcommittee on Global Change Research

1059

1063

1083

1111

1128

1137 1147

1153

« PreviousContinue »