Page images
PDF
EPUB

The scientific and technical chapters of the SAR will contain detailed reviews of critical issues such as detection of climate change; assessment of model results; effects of aerosols on radiative forcing; potential impacts for many ecological systems, human activities, and human infrastructure; technical evaluations of measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and analysis of the potential economic consequences and the applicability of such decisionmaking tools as cost-benefit analysis.

Each volume of the SAR will include a “Summary for Policymakers" that extracts critical information from the underlying technical reports of interest to the policy community. In addition, the Special Report on Article 2 of the Convention will synthesize material contained in the three volumes of the full report that is particularly relevant to governments' interpretation of the UNFCCC objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Of specific concern are the relationships between emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, changes in concentrations and their effects on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and potential impacts of different levels of climate change on natural ecosystems, food security, and sustainable economic development.

Structure and Process

The IPCC operates at two overlapping but distinct levels-as a formal intergovernmental body and as a scientific and technical assessment body. Government representatives meet in formal plenary sessions to approve the topics for assessment and the overall workplans for preparation of the reports. They also review and accept the detailed scientific and technical reports, as well as approve on a line-by-line basis the Summaries for Policymakers that highlight the policy implications of the detailed reports. Scientific and technical experts from each chapter writing team participate in the final approval process to maintain consistency between the Summary and the underlying chapters of the assessment. It is through this intergovernmental review and approval mechanism that the work of the IPCC is connected to international and national policy concerns. The detailed scientific and technical reports themselves are prepared through the enthusiasm and cooperation of scientists and technical experts from around the world. Hundreds of experts are involved in preparing the different chapters of the reports; literally thousands are involved in providing expert peer review. These experts come from many countries and are trained in disciplines ranging from atmospheric chemistry to economics. They include university professors, researchers working in private industry and at national laboratories, and scientific experts affiliated with nongovernmental organizations. The teams of experts that draft the individual sections of the reports are structured to include the broadest possible range of scientific opinion.

IPCC reports are considered by virtually the entire scientific community to be balanced, unbiased assessments of the full range of scientific information on critical climate change issues. This is because the process of preparing the reports involves reviewing the most up-to-date scientific information, reconciling competing views where possible, and characterizing the disagreements when consensus is not achievable. IPCC reports have served another purpose as well: They have identified climate change issues that deserve the priority attention of the research community in the future.

The IPCC is divided into three working groups. Working Group I analyzes the functioning of the climate system and potential changes to it resulting from human activities; Working Group II assesses potential impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, and measures that could be adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and Working Group III focuses on evaluating the

economic implications of climate change. This task involves assessing potential economic damages and the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to decisionmaking.

Annex II

Preparation Process of the Second Assessment Report
for the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Working Group II

Main Assessment Report

The charge to IPCC's Working Group II is to review what is known, unknown, uncertain, and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change. These include impacts on natural and managed ecosystems, as well as socioeconomic sectors such as human settlements, industry, transportation, health, water supplies, and financial services. WG II is also charged with reviewing information on the technical and economic feasibility of potential options for adapting to or mitigating climate change.

The Drafting and Review Process

The chapters of the Working Group II contribution to the Second Assessment Report have been prepared by scientists and technical experts from around the world, trained in disciplines ranging from atmospheric chemistry to economics. They include university professors, researchers working in private industry and at national laboratories, and scientific experts from nongovernmental organizations, with chapter writing teams purposefully assembled to represent the broadest possible range of scientific opinion. Each chapter has been prepared by a writing team which consists of one or two Convening Lead Authors (CLAs) and from 2 to 38 other authors (an average of 19 additional authors per chapter), including at least one author from the developing world. Overall, more than 600 authors-representing nearly 60 countries and a number of national and international organizations have been involved in preparing the Working Group II report.

The drafting process began in June 1993 at an IPCC plenary meeting, where the basic report structure was approved. Lead authors met 3 months later to finalize the chapter outlines. "Zero-order” drafts were circulated in advance of the second lead authors' meeting in June 1994, and approximately 150 authors used this occasion to provide an internal review of the drafts. First-draft chapters were then circulated to nearly 800 expert reviewers and a variety of stakeholder groups including industry and non-governmental organizations, during the last quarter of 1994. The chapters were substantially revised at the third lead authors' meeting in January 1995. Second drafts underwent reviews by national governments and stakeholder groups, then were revised and reviewed a final time, before acceptance at the Working Group II plenary (Montreal, Canada, 16-20 October 1995).

Organization of the Report

Working Group II's volume consists of 25 chapters, an ecological primer and an energy primer, three technical appendices, and a summary for policymakers. These chapters cover potential impacts of climate change, adaptations, and mitigation measures in a variety of physical, ecological, and socioeconomic sectors. The Table of Contents and is reproduced

Summary for Policymakers

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Working Group II contribution to the Second Assessment Report is the product of 9 months of interactions between members of the Working Group II Bureau, Lead Authors from all chapters of the report, outside experts, and the Working Group II Technical Support Unit.

Initial Draft and Reviews

Following the expert review of the draft chapters of the assessment, the outline for the SPM was developed and approved by the Co-Chairs, the Bureau, and Lead Authors during the Lead Authors' Meeting held during 9-13 January 1995 in Geneva, Switzerland. A first draft of the SPM was completed on 23 January. The draft was circulated, reviewed, and revised twice before distribution to governments for review. Reviewers included the Working Group II Bureau, all Convening Lead Authors, a developing country Principal Lead Author from each chapter, the IPCC Chair and Secretary, and the Co-Chairs and Technical Support Units of IPCC Working Groups I and III.

The SPM was circulated to governments, organizations, and external expert reviewers as part of the Government Review of the Working Group's draft contribution to the Second Assessment Report, from 6 March to 28 April 1995. This included mailings from the Technical Support Unit to 141 governments, 61 organizations, and 237 expert reviewers. Comments on chapters and/or the SPM were received from 295 governments, organizations, and expert reviewers.

Final Draft and Approval of the SPM

The comments on the SPM (and draft chapters) were reviewed at the Lead Authors Meeting held during 5-9 June in Charleston, South Carolina. At this time, Lead Authors recommended revisions to the SPM consistent with those they were making to their chapters. A new draft of the SPM was produced and distributed to Lead Authors at the meeting. Additional comments were submitted in writing by Lead Authors during June and early July. The draft underwent two further internal cycles of review and revision by the Working Group II Bureau, Convening Lead Authors, other Lead Authors who attended the Charleston meeting, the IPCC Chair and Secretary, and the Co-Chairs and Technical Support Units of IPCC Working Groups I and III. The final draft SPM was sent to governments and organizations for approval on 15 September 1995.

Governments and organizations submitted written comments on the final draft prior to and at the IPCC Working Group II Plenary meeting in Montreal (October 16-20). These comments were distributed to all meeting participants. The draft SPM was discussed paragraph by paragraph and, after debate and modification, approved verbatim. Lead authors were present to discuss the scientific and technical aspects of the SPM and relevant assessment chapters.

23-558 96-4

1.

A.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

Working Group II Second Assessment Report, Table of Contents

Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Options

Ecophysiological, Ecological, and Soil Processes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: A
Primer on General Concepts and Relationships

Climate Change Impacts On Forests

Rangelands in a Changing Climate: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation
Deserts in a Changing Climate: Impacts

Land Degradation and Desertification

Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Regions

Non-Tidal Wetlands

The Cryosphere: Changes and Their Impacts

Oceans

Coastal Zones and Small Islands

Hydrology and Freshwater Ecology

Industry, Energy, and Transportation: Impacts and Adaptation
Human Settlements in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation
Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation

[blocks in formation]

Mitigation Options in the Transportation Sector

Mitigation Options for Human Settlements

Agricultural Options for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Management of Forests for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Mitigation: Cross-Sectoral and Other Issues

Technical Appendices

Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Methods for Assessment of Mitigation Options

28. Inventory of Technologies, Methods, and Practices

For Further Information

Richard H. Moss, Head

IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit

300 D Street, SW⚫ Suite 840

Washington, DC 20024

202.651.8260 (voice)

202.554.6858 (fax)

ipcc@usgcrp.gov (e-mail)

« PreviousContinue »