· Set up a time phased plan for the use of Union resources in the heating and cooling area to include personnel and dollars.

(2) Maintain a close watch on the situation--This would include: Expansion of a solar energy library to include copies of regulations, codes, manuals and incentive actions collected from federal, state, and local levels through various contacts. This library should also include available energy studies, and as they can be obtained, cost estimate data from developers, contractors, and architects. The use of these data in discussions with state and local contacts would lead to a voluntary exchange of information.

• Studying in more detail which products fabricated by or
installed by union contractors (as listed in the red
book) will be affected by solar heating and cooling
and in what way (for instance, changes in insulation,
double glazing of windows). This would then permit an
evaluation as to whether new processes, techniques, or
training sessions are needed to bring membership up to
date on such matters.

Volunteering to government agencies to provide knowledge-
able experts in labor and craft aspects of construction
and design matters, who can serve as advisory members
of policy, planning, and operational tasks under the
National Plan for Solar Heating and Cooling. ERDA, HUD,
GSA, DoD, and The National Bureau of Standards are the
principal agencies.

Surveying cooperating contractor firms and manufacturers
to determine which are concerned with solar demonstra-
tion products. Arrange visits by a national Union
representative to the principal firms to discuss solar
heating and design. Westinghouse, General Electric,
PPG, and Revere should probably be included.

Talking informally with research organizations regard-
ing their conclusions on sheet metal content of con-
struction. This might include MITRE, Arthur D. Little,
Battelle, and SRI.

Reviewing the directory of state energy offices published
by FEA and having Union representatives called on state
energy office heads in their jurisdictional areas.
In
some cases, it might be worthwhile to include a national

representative. This would be evident when reviewing
the directory, which outlines the current state pro-
gram.

Following a similar procedure in selected local com-
munities.

Looking into solar energy industry associations and
joining if membership is appropriate.

Touching base with each university doing major work
in solar heating and cooling, to discuss sheet metal
implications (local or regional representative of the
Union can do this).

(3) Become involved in potentially advantageous demonstration programs--The Union should:

• Ask to be put on ERDA's list of addressees for the requests for proposals that are being issued in connection with the program.

• Work out a joint test program with ASHRAE, and perhaps one with AIA.

• Initiate solar heating and cooling discussions with AIA offering to provide technical advice as appropriate in heating and cooling matters.

· Initiate similar talks with the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers. Intensify the cooperative work being done with SMACNA on solar matters.

· Engage sharp, articulate members in a solar construc-
tion project.

• Join with SMACNA in providing assistance to Colorado
State University's Solar Energy Applications Laboratory
(SEAL) and perhaps to other experiments of different
systems, where they will include sheet metal. In such
demonstration cases, the Union should endeavor to find
sufficient numbers of similarly interested organiza-
tions so that investments of Union funds are minimal.

(4) Lobby as appropriate to ensure that potentially advantageous programs and projects receive adequate attention and funding --The Union should:

• Make courtesy calls on the Chairman of the House and
Senate Committee dealing with solar energy matters

and on selected Committee and Committee staff members.

(5)

Make similar calls on solar energy officials of ERDA, HUD, GSA, National Bureau of Standards, and FEA. Establish contact with the elements of the Department of Labor concerned with manpower training aspects of the energy program. (The most important figure is considered to be Dr. Robert C. Seamans, Jr. of ERDA.)

Become the preeminent authority on labor and manpower requirements and training in solar energy manufacture of components and installation--Suggestions for accomplishing this are to:

.

Volunteer with the Department of Labor training

people, ERDA, and HUD to serve as consultant in de-
veloping a training portion of the solar heating
and cooling program.

· Work up a solar heating and cooling training packet
for use in membership meetings. This might include
audiovisual tape presentations, general orientation on
solar heating and cooling, and specifics on methods
Initially, a simple brochure explaining terms, equip-
ment components, and principles of operation would be
advantageous. It may well prove to be practical if
the Union negotiated to buy and utilize the primer
just published by the American Institute of Architects.
Joining forces with the AIA may also have some other
long-term benefits in this area.

8

III THE OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY IN THE UNITED STATES

The principal U.S. government report on energy, Project Independence, was published by the Federal Energy Administration in November 1974. Because it is the basic foundation for administration energy policy, it is an appropriate basis for summarizing the energy outlook.

The highlights of the current energy situation are as follows:

• U.S. demand for energy has been growing at about 3.5 percent
annually.

This country is no longer self-sufficient in the industry,
because, in contrast with a demand increase, coal production
is still at the levels of the 1940s, crude oil production has
been declining since its peak in 1970, and the increase in
natural gas consumption has exceeded new discoveries of that
commodity since the late 1960s.

As a result, the United States is now heavily dependent on
foreign petroleum--in 1973, foreign oil and products used in
the United States approximated 35 percent of the domestic
petroleum, as shown in Figure 1.

Middle East countries dominate the world market--they have
60 percent of world reserves and currently produce 70 per-
cent of world oil exports.

· U.S. dependence on imported oil as a source of energy creates
a substantial economic problem. The 1973-74 embargo had an
economic impact on the Gross National Product (GNP) estimated
at between $10 billion and $20 billion, and the unemployment
increase attributed to the embargo at its peak was more than
500,000.

The demand for energy in the United States depends not only on domestic needs but also on the availability of energy resources and on the prices charged for these energy producing commodities. Project Independence studies of demand indicate that a range of $11 to $7 per barrel in world oil prices would provide corresponding demand growths at the annual rate of 2.7 percent per year, or 3.2 percent per year between 1972 and 1985, respectively, if there were no change in current major policies. This assumes availability of the petroleum. Production is also

FIGURE 1 U.S. ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, 1947 - 1973

directly affected by price under the Project Independence assumptions. At the $11 price, domestic production would increase enough to decrease the demand for foreign oil, whereas at the $7 price the gap between total requirements and domestic oil availability would continue to increase, concurrently increasing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, as shown in Figure 2.

Under the assumptions of this base case, it is expected that by 1985 coal use will increase; but production of coal could be expanded to more than meet this increase. Other factors (lower electric growth, increasing nuclear capability, and environmental restrictions) will limit the need for this production increase under the base case.

Domestic natural gas production is limited regardless of price. Continued regulation could result in a reduction of production of that commodity by 1985 to a level 38 percent below what it would be if natural gas prices were deregulated.

By 1985, nuclear power is forecast to provide approximately 30 percent of total electric power generation. Synthetic fuels are not expected to contribute materially between now and 1985, nor are geothermal,