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PEER REVIEW DRAFT September 1, 2000

and/or changes in land use. ORD plans two assessments of the possible impacts of global change (climate and land-use change) on water quality. Both water quality assessments will either contribute to or benefit from Human Health and Ecosystems assessments. In addition, results from the assessment of pollutants and microbial pathogens will be used in the assessment of biocriteria. These assessment will also contribute to the National Assessment process.

The culmination of the 11 assessments and the National Assessment activities is a multi-sector, multi-region assessment of the consequences of global change for human health, ecosystems, and socioeconomic well-being in the United States scheduled for completion in FY2010. This assessment will synthesize and elaborate prior work.

Intramural and extramural research will provide crucial material to all of the assessments. Intramural efforts will be conducted through EPA's National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), the National Exposures Research Lab (NERL), the National Health andEnvironmental Effects Research Lab (NHEERL), and the National Risk Management Research Lab (NRMRL). In addition, a significant portion of the program's resources are dedicated to extramural research grants administered by the National Center for Environmental Research (NCER) through the STAR (Science to Achieve Results) grants program. The STAR program focuses on two principal areas related to global change research science to support assessments of the consequences of global change and human dimensions research.

PREFACE

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This document presents the research strategy for the Global Change Research Program of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). While the program is not new, this Strategy reflects a major redirection of the program. ORD began conducting research in Global Change in 1990 at the time of the passage of the Global Change Research Act and the establishment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).

Much of the research from 1990-1996 was focused on atmospheric stabilization of the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This research emphasized terrestrial ecosystematmosphere carbon cycling, biomass burning detection; regional climate scenarios; comparative technology assessments and evaluations; specific greenhouse gas reduction technologies; effects research; and strategies for enhancing biospheric carbon storage. The research involved a combination of experimental, remote sensing, and modeling research, especially related to carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, development of an Earth Systems Model, and control technologies. A list of publications from this era of the Global Change Program is included in Appendix A.

In 1997, three important events occurred which required ORD to re-evaluate its Global Change Research Program. First, an external peer review was critical of a program strategy written in 1996. Second, ORD experienced nearly a 50% reduction in appropriations for global change research. Third, the USGCRP requested that EPA redirect its program to emphasize the assessment of the consequences of global change.

After a decade of basic research on climate change, variability, and other global change, the agencies of the USGCRP believe it is time to focus on understanding the Earth system as a whole, the dynamics of environmental change, and the

connection of that knowledge to societal needs. An effort is being made to eliminate programmatic overlap among USGCRP member agencies and to ensure that agencies contribute in those areas

where they have the greatest comparative

advantage. ORD's Global Change Program's advantage is in assessing the consequences of global change in the United States.

In response to the USGCRP request and to the findings of the 1997 peer review, ORD created the position of National Program Director for Global Change Research (in 1998) to guide the restructuring and to coordinate research and assessment activities across ORD Laboratories and Centers. Since that time, the program has undergone important changes. Global Change Program activities have been optimized given budget limitations to focus on those areas where EPA has the most to offer -assessments of the consequences of global change on air quality, water quality, human health, and ecosystem health. These four areas were selected because they are 1) areas where EPA has recognized expertise among government agencies; 2) areas that are consistent with the mandate and goals of the USGCRP; and 3) areas where EPA can make a difference. This strategy establishes a rationale for a coherent framework through which ORD will assess the consequences of global change in these four areas.

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Earth's environment is constantly changing due to the complex interplay of both natural processes and human activities. Evidence from scientific research has begun to show that humans play an important and expanding role as agents of global environmental change. Many of these changes cannot be reversed quickly, if at all, due to the long time cycles associated with many of the Earth's systems. The potential consequences of global change are wide-ranging and could adversely affect human health, ecological systems, and socioeconomic interests, all of which are vital to sustainable development.

Policy makers and resource managers have begun to recognize that decisions made today may have important long-term ramifications for the Earth system. As global change increasingly becomes an issue of national and international policy, the importance of research into the consequences of global change grows. Human adaptation to global environmental change will be critical in reducing adverse impacts and realizing the benefits of new opportunities. New scientific tools will be needed to understand and respond to global environmental risks. Global change research is an important investment for the future of the nation, its economy, and its citizens.

This document, the Research Strategy for the Global Change Research Program, articulates a vision for the long-term goals of the program. Since 1997, the Program has been redirected to become more assessment-oriented in response to: 1) Congressional mandates in the Global Change Research Act of 1990; 2) a 1997 external peer review of the program's research strategy; and 3) guidance provided in the National Research Council's "Pathways" report (1998). The Research Strategy is intended to be a living document and will be updated to remain current with end-user needs and with the state of the science in global change research.

Publication of this Research Strategy is consistent with requirements of the new Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA). GPRA calls for federal agencies to provide the Congress with "performance goals" and "performance

measures" through which work is monitored and performance appraised. The Global Change Program has developed a timeline that establishes interim performance goals necessary to achieve the Program's long-term goal for 2010.

The Research Strategy describes the direction of the Program, not its implementation. As a result, it provides only the framework components of the research and assessment process, not a listing of specific projects. Detailed project implementation plans are documented and reviewed separately from the Strategy. They are developed annually based on Congressional budget appropriations. ORD's ability to achieve the long-term goals of the Global Change Research Program and to fulfill its role under the Global Change Research Act of 1990 will depend in part on adequate Congressional appropriations.

This document provides an overview of the critical activities of the Global Change Program for the next ten years. The first section, Context of the Global Change Program Strategy, describes how the goals and vision outlined in this Strategy relate to planning within ORD, the mandate of the USGCRP, and work in the international community. The next section, Program Capabilities, outlines the management structure and extramural and intramural capacities of the Program. Immediately following is a box that describes the Measures of Success used to evaluate the Program's effectiveness. The next section, Assessment Orientation, describes key strategic principles that guide the Program's research and assessment efforts. The final section, Program Focus Areas, identifies and provides justification for the four areas upon which the Program focuses its research and assessment activities - the potential effects of global change on human health, ecosystems, air quality, and water quality. It also outlines the criteria that are used to decide which projects will be undertaken by the Program.

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Global Change Research Program Purpose

The purpose of the Global Change Research Program is to provide scientific information to stakeholders and policy makers to support them as they decide whether and how to respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change. These assessments will not offer policy guidance

policy must reflect the values of those affected and the constraints of political and social institutions and fiscal realities - but will provide the scientific underpinnings to inform the policy making process.

Consistency of Research Strategy with ORD Strategic Plan and Responsiveness to GPRA

The development of this Strategy complements the Office of Research and Development's Strategic Planning Process. The ORD strategic vision is to provide the scientific foundation that supports EPA's mission. That mission is divided into four elements: 1) to perform research and development activities; 2) to provide technical support; 3) to integrate the work of ORD's scientific partners; and 4) to offer leadership in addressing emerging environmental issues (USEPA 1997a).

The Global Change Research Program has a similar, multi-part mission that is consistent with the ORD mission. The mission of the Global Change Program is to:

improve the scientific basis for evaluating effects of global change in the context of other stressors and human dimensions;

# conduct assessments of the consequences of global environmental change; and, improve society's ability to effectively respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global change as they emerge.

The Research Strategy is also consistent with requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), which require agencies to provide the Congress with measurable "annual performance goals" and "performance measures." In response to GPRA, the Global Change Program has developed a timeline that establishes interim performance goals necessary to achieve the

Program's long-term goal for 2010 (see Table 1).

The long-term goal of the Global Change Program is to understand and articulate, in terms that are meaningful for decision-makers and other stakeholders, the consequences of global environmental change for human health, ecosystems, and social well-being in the U.S. Global change is a broad concept that can include many things that influence the Earth system. To narrow the potential scope of the program while ensuring consistency with the short- and long-term objectives of the USGCRP, the Global Change Program will focus on the following stressors and interactions:

# The potential consequences of climate change and climate variability. EPA's focus on climate change and variability is in keeping with USGCRP's First National Assessment. Air and water quality the protection of which is EPA's mandate - may be strongly influenced by climate change. Such effects must be understood to meet the Agency's basic mission. # The effects of UV radiation. Here, EPA's

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primary concern is the effect of changes in UV radiation on ecosystems, their components, and the services they provide.

# The effects of land-use changes. Further understanding is needed regarding how to assess the underlying processes that determine how land-use change interacts with climate change to affect land cover, ecosystem services, hydrologic cycles, species distribution, biodiversity, and social and economic systems.

ORD's strategic plan articulates six long-term, overarching goals (see Table 2). These goals are intended to inform decisions about research directions for years to come. Together with more specific research objectives, the goals also provide greater accountability for results (as required by GPRA). The Global Change Research Strategy was developed with these goals in mind.

Conducting assessments and the research to support assessments is consistent with ORD's long-term goals.