For the purposes of this evaluation, there were several reasons to study the market for fluorescent lighting ballasts. First, they are the one product for which there are 40 years of continuous, publicly-available national manufacturer shipment data that are differentiated by categories of energy efficiency. Second, fluorescent lamps, which are driven by lighting ballasts, are ubiquitous in commercial and institutional buildings in the United States. Third, installation of electronic ballasts is a precondition for the use of T-8 fluorescent lamps, another major energy-efficient lighting product promoted by EPAss Green Lights Partnership. Fourth, electronic ballasts and T-8 lamps together account for the majority of the pollution prevention that can be attributed to the Green Lights Partnership.

From an analytic perspective, the main challenge of this study was to investigate the primary forces underlying the changing market for fluorescent lighting ballasts. Once these forces were reliably measured, the challenge of this study was to attribute the observed market changes to major economic and non-market forces, such as electric utility demand side management programs and the Green Lights partnership. To meet this challenge, statistical models were used to measure the role that relative prices have played in years when no public programs or policies were directed at this market. In research terms, these years form the comparison period. Studying the market in these years allows inferences to be made as to what would have occurred in the market in the later treatment period had there been no Green Lights partnership or other public programs. Understanding the product market at this level of detail was the essential prerequisite for accurately estimating the economic and environmental benefits of the Green Lights partnership.

The findings of this study indicate that US manufacturers shipped over 210 million units of electronic ballasts from 1991 through 1998. Of this amount, approximately 15 percent would have been shipped due to factors affecting the electronic ballasts market prior to 1991 and another 20 percent would have been shipped due to the effects of decreasing relative prices of electronic ballasts over this time period. Approximately 138 million remaining electronic ballasts are attributable to the combined influence of the Green Lights partnership and all other public programs from 1991 through 1998. When the Green Lights partnership market transformation accomplishments are extended through 1999, the national benefits derived from this EPA voluntary public/private partnership are annual energy savings of 20,000 GWh and annual mitigation of about 4 million metric tons of greenhouse gases. This effort is in peer review and should be final in the Spring of 2000.

4.3 Market Evaluation of the ENERGY STAR Labeling Program

EPA is undertaking a number of market surveys to assist in the overall evaluation of the ENERGY STAR Labeling Program. While much of the necessary data for program evaluation is product shipment information, some of this data, such as heating and cooling equipment data, is difficult to obtain. The surveys have been designed to help answer questions about the effectiveness of EPA's work to promote efficient heating and cooling equipment and office equipment. The surveys are also designed to help evaluate whether long lasting market transformation effects that can be linked to specific market intervention activities associated with the ENERGY STAR labeling program have occurred. In general, market transformation initiatives involve one or more of the following:

Introduction of a new technology, service, or behavior into the market.

Advancement of an existing technology, service, or behavior, so that it becomes more widespread.

Removal or decreased use of an inefficient technology, service, or behavior.

Acceleration of the rate of technological improvement and/or cost reduction.

EPA plans to ask focused questions that allow measurement of market transformation. For example, EPA will evaluate the advancement of energy-efficient products by collecting data about the percentage of products sold or leased that qualify for the ENERGY STAR label and how this percentage has changed over the last two years. The office equipment managers surveys will collect information on the percentage of equipment that has power management technology (e.g., 'sleep' mode for copiers) enabled and if, and how this percentage has changed over the last two years in particular market segments. For the HVAC contractors and dealers market segment, the surveys will assess the degree to which dealers and contractors are communicating information about energy-efficiency products to their customers, including information about utility cost savings or loan incentive programs.

EPA has developed surveys for specific objectives as follows:

HVAC Contractor Surveys. The objectives are to assess awareness of ENERGY STAR models among contractors who participated in ENERGY STAR training programs and those who did not, estimate market penetration of ENERGY STAR models among both groups, and assess the prevalence of selling practices to promote efficient equipment.

Commercial Office Equipment Managers Surveys. The objectives are to assess awareness,

understanding, and implementation levels of ENERGY STAR models among commercial purchasers of computer systems and imaging equipment.

ENERGY STAR Household Survey, the objectives are to assess consumer recognition, understanding, and use of the ENERGY STAR label in purchasing decisions.

EPA will use the information from the surveys to assess the overall effectiveness of its ENERGY STAR labeling program to date. Gaining objective and critical insights into the program's measurable effects will enable the Agency to measure its successes, refine its program, efficiently target its limited resources, and better communicate information to program stakeholders. EPA is hoping to have these survey completed by Spring 2000 and to have the results finalized by Summer 2000. Completion of this work is subject to receiving approval for information collection requests.

4.4 Future Evaluations

Upon the completion of these market evaluations, EPA will develop a market evaluation plan for the suite of CCTI programs, identifying and prioritizing the programs that warrant these types of evaluations and with what frequency. EPA will make that plan available by the end of the year 2000.

These market evaluations will inform the next government review of the progress of the Climate Change Technology Initiative. Under the FCCC, the U.S. government must submit National communications to the Secretariat, reporting on progress toward meeting commitments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, among other commitments. The next review will be submitted in Spring of 2001.

5.0 EPA's Statutory Authorities

EPA's climate change programs are designed to demonstrate and capitalize on opportunities to deploy technology more rapidly through the marketplace, thereby reducing energy demand, preventing associated pollution, and saving consumers and organizations money on their energy bills. The primary statutory authorities for these programs are the following: Clean Air Act, 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq; Clean Water Act, 33 U.S.C. 1251 et seq; Solid Waste Disposal Act, 42 U.S.C. 6901 et seq; Pollution Prevention Act of 1990, 42 U.S.C. 13101 et seq; National Environmental Policy Act, 42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq; Global Climate Protection Act of 1987, 15 U.S.C. 2901, and; Federal Technology Transfer Act, 15 U.S.C. 3710a. Table 12 illustrates the specific authorities for each of EPA's key programs.

These programs support and are consistent with on-going international commitments made by the United States under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (signed by President Bush and ratified by the United States Senate in 1992). Most of the programs are entirely voluntary and involve no binding regulations. They are designed to prevent pollution by accelerating the deployment of energy-efficient technologies and other practices in the marketplace, mainly by providing consumers and businesses with reliable information on how these technologies and practices can save money while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution. Two programs are the result of regulations promulgated prior to 1995. EPA's climate change programs implement the directives of the Agency's current statutory authorities, especially the Clean Air Act and the Pollution Prevention Act.

*These are EPA's primary statutory authorities for the programs identified. Please note that specific individual programs may also rely on additional statutory authorities not identified here.

Background. Energy use in homes and businesses accounts for 35% of all U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide and 38% of nitrogen oxides. ENERGY STAR is a federal government program designed to remove market barers to the purchase of energy-efficient products and services in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Studies show that many homes and businesses could reduce their energy use by about 30% by using proven, cost-effective products and investing in simple, profitable building upgrades. However, many businesses and consumers fail to take advantage of these opportunities because of informational, financial and technical market barriers. In essence the transaction costs and perceptions of risk are higher for more efficient technologies than for their less efficient counterparts. The ENERGY STAR Programs are designed to reduce these transaction costs and to help consumers and businesses overcome these market barriers. The programs address three market failures that have resulted in underinvestment in energy efficiency: (1) lack of objective information; (2) definition of efficiency and comparability of competing products; (3) and higher purchase prices for many efficient products.

Market Innovations. The ENERGY STAR program addresses key market barriers with the following innovations designed to build incentives for investment in energy efficiency into the marketplace.

Labeling. The ENERGY STAR label is a simple, objective icon that identifies products that reduce energy waste, prevent pollution and reduce utility bills while offering the same or better product performance. It provides a common definition of energy efficiency for manufacturers, retailers and energy efficiency advocacy groups nationwide, and eliminates the need for consumers to be familiar with complex measures of energy efficiency. Building Benchmarking. With a new building benchmarking tool, building owners and managers will for the first time know whether or not their buildings have good or poor energy performance. Similar to a miles per gallon rating for a car, this new tool will provide new incentives for energy efficiency in the marketplace as tenants and potential buyers better understand the operating expenses of buildings.

Consumer Education. The ENERGY STAR Program produces public service advertisements, media events, brochures, and other outreach materials to educate consumers about the economic and environmental benefits of energy-efficient products.

Support Tools. The ENERGY STAR Programs invest in tools including retail sales training modules, efficiency "calculators," store locators, software, reduced cost loans for efficient products, and toll free hotlines to answer consumer questions. These tools are used by manufacturers, retailers, and utility efficiency programs nationwide.

Success of the ENERGY STAR Partnership Programs. ENERGY STAR is now nine years old. Through ENERGY STAR, an extensive energy efficiency deployment infrastructure has been and continues to be developed across the country. Key successes include:

A clear national label that defines energy efficiency has been established - the ENERGY STAR label, supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy.

Over 1,200 manufacturers offer ENERGY STAR products in over 30 commercial and residential product categories. These products are now featured in over 4,000 retail storefronts nationwide.

Consumer Awareness of the ENERGY STAR label is up to about 40% in some regions of the country -- a tremendous accomplishment in today's brand-dominated market place. About 50 utilities representing over 30% of US households now promote ENERGY STAR labeled products to their customers as an integral part of their efficiency services.

A brand new development is the ENERGY STAR Building Label, which serves as the mark of energy performance excellence for commercial buildings. It builds upon a new benchmarking tool that ranks the energy performance of office buildings