Contacts This report was prepared by the staff of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration. General questions concerning the report can be directed to Mary J. Hutzler (202/586-2222, mhutzler@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting: Susan H. Holte (202/586-4838, sholte@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (202/586-9646, jkendell@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; Scott B. Sitzer (202/586-2308, ssitzer@eia.doe.gov), Director of the Coal and Electric Power Division; and Andy S. Kydes (202/586-2222, akydes@eia.doe.gov), Senior Technical Adviser. Specific questions about the report may be directed to the following analysts: Residential Industrial Ethanol John H. Cymbalsky Erin E. Boedecker 202/586-4815 jcymbals@eia.doe.gov 202/586-4791 eboedeck@eia.doe.gov 202/586-1420 choneycu@eia.doe.gov 202/586-3994 dchien@eia.doe.gov 202/586-2025 jbeamon@eia.doe.gov 202/586-6582 tpetersi@eia.doe.gov 202/586-6579 bbawks@eia.doe.gov Preface In February 2000, the Administration sent its fiscal year 2001 budget request to the U.S. Congress. It includes about $4 billion in programs related to climate change. The proposal includes about $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2001 for tax incentives, research and development, and other spending for the Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTT). CCTI includes tax incentives for energy efficiency improvements and renewable technologies for buildings, light-duty vehicles, and electricity generation. Other funding covers research, development, and deployment for energy-efficient and renewable technologies, more efficient generating technologies, and carbon sequestration research. The analysis in this report was undertaken at the request of the U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs. The Committee asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to update its report, Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative, released April 14, 1999, accounting for changes in the President's fiscal year 2001 budget request, as noted in the letter in the Appendix. The projections and quantitative analysis in this report were conducted primarily using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an energy-economy model of U.S. energy markets designed, developed, and maintained by EIA, which is used each year to provide the projections in the Annuai Energy Outlook. Chapter 1 of this report provides background discussion of CCTI and the methodology of the analysis. Chapters 2, 3, and 4, respectively, analyze the impacts of the tax incentives; research, development, and deployment programs; and accelerated appliance standards proposed in CCTI. The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take positions on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report does not purport to represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration. CCTI Tax Initiatives (continued) Comparison to the Fiscal Year 2000 Climate Change Technology Initiative Tax Credits for Energy-Efficient Homes Tax Credits for Energy-Efficient Equipment in Homes and Buildings Tax Credits for Rooftop Solar Systems Tax Incentives for Distributed Power Property Page 51 52 52 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 55 55 56 57 57 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 65 65 66 67 68 68 68 70 70 71 73 77 80 81 81 84 85 85 86 86 89 90 Table 3. Projected Purchases of Energy-Efficient Building Equipment Covered by the CCTI Tax Incentive Table ES7. Summary of Projected Impacts for Accelerated Efficiency Standards, 2010 Appendix A. Letter from the Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on Tables Table ES1. Summary of Projected Impacts for CCTI Tax Initiatives, 2010 Table 4. Projected Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions from the CCTI Tax Table 8. Cost Data for CCTI Solar Technologies.. Table 12. Electric, Hybrid Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Currently Available in U.S. Markets and Announced Dates of Production Prototypes. Table 13. Projected Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Technology from the CCTI Transportation 32 Table 14. Projected Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions by Fuel from the CCTI 32 Table 15. Projected Vehicle Sales and Tax Revenue Reductions by Vehicle Type from the CCTI Transportation Tax Incentives, 2002-2006 333 |