Quantifying Natural and Human-Induced Factors Forcing Climate Change
Characterizing the Natural Variability of Climate

Quantifying Climate System Processes and Feedbacks

Improving Model Predictions of Climate Change

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Conducting Climate Assessments

Research on Impacts and Adaptation

Agriculture and Forests

Water Resources

Coastal Zones

Human Health

Research Relating to Mitigation and New Technologies

Solar and Renewable-Energy Technologies
Fossil Fuels Energy Technology Research

Nuclear and Fusion Energy Technology Research
Energy Efficiency Research

Research Relating to Socioeconomic Causes and Effects

Climate Change Contributions of the Consequences for Human Societies
Integrated Assessments: A Framework for Policymakers

Interagency Analysis of Policy Initiatives

International Research and Capacity Building

Climate Action Report, 1997

4 of 5

http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/97climate_report/index.html

Mitigating Climate Change (cont.)

http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/97climate_report/part4c.html

Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990-2020

Emissions of greenhouse gases are projected to rise at a decreasing rate between now and the year
2020 (Table 4-2 and Figure 4-3). Between 1990 and 2000, emissions increase by 12 percent;
between 2000 and 2010, they increase by an additional 11 percent; and between 2010 and 2020,
they increase by another 9 percent. The growth of overall greenhouse gas emissions is due to the
continued but slowing growth in projected baseline emissions.

Among all gases, net carbon emissions increase the most in absolute terms, while emissions from
halogenated gases, although small in absolute terms, increase the most in percentage terms. Net
carbon emissions are projected to increase by 195 MMTCE between 1990 and 2000, by 137
MMTCE between 2000 and 2010, and 117 MMTCE between 2010 and 2020. The largest
percentage increase in net carbon emissions, 16 percent, occurs between 1990 and 2000. (Net
carbon emission is equal to gross domestic energy-related carbon emissions, minus international
bunker fuel, plus Adjustments to U.S. Energy, plus emissions from Other Sources, minus
sequestered carbon.)

Note: Projections assume timely receipt of legislative authority for parking cash-out.
Program funding is based on funding proportional to current funding with respect to 1993
CCAP funding levels. Columns may not sum due to independent rounding.

Although the projected absolute increase in carbon-equivalent emissions for halogenated gases is
relatively small compared to net carbon emissions, halogenated gases increase by 73 percent
between 1990 and 2000, by 115 percent between 2000 and 2010, and by 46 percent between 2010
and 2020. The largest absolute increase for these gases was 49 MMTCE, which is projected to
occur between 2000 and 2010.

The results of this integrated analysis combined with a review of actual emission trends to date
suggest that CCAP programs can be effective in reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. CCAP
actions reduce 4 percent of baseline emissions in 2000, 8 percent in 2010, and 10 percent in 2020.
However, despite these substantial contributions, emissions will significantly exceed their 1990
levels in the year 2000.

Mitigating Climate Change (cont.)

http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/97climate_report/part4c.html

• U.S. net greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 were 1,458 MMTCE.

percent above

⚫ Estimated U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1995 were 1,559 MMTCE-6.9
the 1990 level, and somewhat above the short-term increase projected in the first U.S.
national communication, the 1994 Climate Action Report.

. The updated "point estimate" for greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000, assuming
continued funding support for CCAP actions described in this report, comparable to the 1997
levels approved by Congress is 1,646 MMTCE--188 MMTCE above the 1990 level.

. Under current funding levels, planned actions are estimated to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by 76 MMTCE in the year 2000, compared to what they would have been
otherwise (the baseline).

• Due to estimated energy savings initiated by CCAP actions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, approximately $10.3 billion and $51.1 billion are saved in energy fuel use in 2000
and 2010, respectively.

. If funding were higher, as originally envisioned in the 1993 CCAP, estimated emission
reductions would be about 30-40 MMTCE greater.

. While reductions from CCAP programs increase over time, projected greenhouse gas
emissions still continue to grow over time, reaching 1,837 MMTCE by 2010 and 1,998
MMTCE by 2020.

The emission projections presented here include the full effect of the "foundation" actions
contained in the earlier 1993 CCAP. The three foundation actions scored are: Climate Challenge,
Climate Wise Companies, and State and Local Outreach. Emission reduction estimates are sensitive
to the order in which foundation actions and other CCAP programs are counted. If reductions
resulting from the activities of program participants that can be reflected in other actions or in the
baseline are excluded, the estimated "incremental" emission reductions associated with the
foundations are estimated to provide emission reductions of 11 MMTCE in 2000, 10 MMTCE in
2010, and 12 MMTCE by 2020. However, the full emission reduction contribution of these
programs, which includes all reductions achieved through the activities of program participants, is
substantially larger.

Assessing Current Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

As in the 1993 CCAP, an analytical team was established composed of members from all relevant
federal agencies. The team was charged with reevaluating all 1993 CCAP actions and to include
new actions as appropriate. A set of inputs was developed so that the modeling effort could be
undertaken to account for potential overlap and synergistic effects among actions.

Two modeling scenarios were created: a Baseline scenario and an Action Plan scenario. The
Baseline scenario reflects expectations of private- and public-sector behavior based on legislation
and federal programs already in effect. The Action Plan scenario combines all the policies
contained in the baseline with the actions contained in the 1993 CCAP, as well as new actions
developed since the publication of the original CCAP.

The projections contained in this section are derived from a set of specific assumptions about
markets, technologies, and resources, such as growth rates in the gross domestic product (GDP) and
world oil prices. Four main types of assumptions underlie the projections:

• Economic factors, including GDP growth rates, world oil prices, and other macroeconomic
assumptions.

• Energy resources, including proven reserves and undiscovered resources.

• Market behavior, reflecting the demand and supply decisions of energy-market participants,
as influenced by energy prices, regulation, and policy programs.

• Technology factors, which include information on the costs, performance, and commercial
availability of energy-consuming, -converting and -producing technologies.

The Integrated Dynamic Energy Analysis Simulation (IDEAS) model was used as a tool for the
integrated analysis of the energy-related actions. Table 4-3 presents a partial list of some of the key