a global one, that would require us to get that other point and a half of the way, if that is what the disparity turns out to be, I think all of us are going to be surprised at what it is going to take to get there.

I did want, in defense of football, just to say that the mere existence of the pigskin is helpful to global climate concerns because it is one less live pig to contribute to the problem, and finally, in answer to one of your questions, forgive me, I don't remember now whether it was the first or the second, we shouldn't forget the idea of a technology cooperation core, which is one way, if we move into this the way I think we should, recognizing it is a global problem and that the United States, and not just the Germanys and the Japans of the world, have a good deal to offer the rest of the world, the developing world especially in terms of know-how and technology about how to develop with less greenhouse gas emissions, then that is the way to do it and in your terms sell it to the American people as in their interests.

Mr. GEJDENSON. Thank you. I appreciate the panel for its patience and we hope that you will stay in contact with us, or on your own initiative. We will certainly followup on some of what you said. Thank you very much. The record will be open for 2 weeks.

[Whereupon, at 3:45 p.m., the subcommittee was adjourned.]

Introduction

Thank you Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee. I am Daniel Lashof, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Previously I was an Environmental Scientist at the Environmental Protection Agency, where I was the lead author of the Report to Congress Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. I hold a doctorate in Energy and Resources from the University of California, Berkeley, where I specialized in the global carbon cycle. I appreciate the invitation to appear here today.

NRDC is a non-profit environmental protection organization, founded in 1970 and supported by 170,000 members. NRDC's Energy Program has more than ten years of experience in promoting energy efficiency and least-cost energy planning. In 1988 NRDC launched its Atmosphere Protection Initiative (API) to provide a coordinated response to the related threats to the integrity of the earth's atmosphere global warming, ozone depletion, acid rain, and urban smog. This effort involves more than a dozen NRDC scientists, resource specialists, and attorneys expert in climate, energy efficiency, nuclear energy, forestry, agriculture, international environment, air pollution control, and coastal protection.

NRDC participated as an observer throughout the process of negotiating the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as well as in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. NRDC is also an active participant in the Climate Action Network, an international coalition of non-governmental organizations working for climate protection. In today's testimony I will review the National Action Plan submitted last year by the Bush Administration in light of U.S. obligations under the Convention and the international scientific assessment of global warming. I will then make recommendations regarding preparation of an acceptable action plan.

The Basis for Taking Action

The U.N. Climate Convention was negotiated following a process of international scientific assessment conducted under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Bush Administration summarized this assessment in an accurate and

balanced manner:

"The following represents a consensus view of a broad range of scientists, including
most U.S. scientists, who have participated actively in the international effort to
understand the issue:

"Climate Change: While scientists cannot yet establish that a human-induced
warming has already occurred, best estimates indicate that increased concentrations
of greenhouse gases are likely to increase atmospheric and ocean temperatures and
alter their associated circulation and weather patterns. However, the magnitude,
timing and regional details of these changes cannot be predicted with much
certainty. Climate models predict changes in the average temperature of the
globe's atmosphere as a consequence of a doubling of atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide are unlikely to lie outside the range of 1.5° to 4.5°C (2.7 to

8.1°F), with a best estimate, based on model results and taking into account the
observed climate record, of 2.5°C (4.5°F). Associated sea-level rise has been
estimated to range between a few tens of centimeters and approximately 1 meter
(less than 1 foot to approximately three feet). In addition, observed warming in
recent years is of the same magnitude as that predicted by the models but also of
the same magnitude as natural variability. Thus, the observed increase could be
due predominately to natural variability or could be part of a larger warming offset
by other human factors. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to vary
considerably from region-to-region, with particular risks for drought-prone areas,
irrigated agriculture, water resources, coastal zones and natural ecosystems.

Precise evaluations of the impacts of climate change are not likely to be available
for a decade or more."

Responding to this scientific assessment, the parties to the climate convention adopted the following objective (Article 2):

"The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that
the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the
relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. such a level should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in its report on Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change, has concluded that to ensure that this objective is met the rate of warming must be kept to less than 0.1°C (0.2°F) per decade, and the absolute warming to less than 1-2°C (2-4°F) compared with pre-industrial times. Warming greater than the lower limit of 1°C (2°F) "may clicit rapid, unpredictable, and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage," while beyond 2°C (4°F) "the risks of grave damage to ecosystems, and of non-linear responses, are expected to increase rapidly."

To prevent warming of more than 1°C (2°F) the SEI study estimates that the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would have to be limited to the equivalent of 330-400 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 (this is called the CO2-cquivalent concentration). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is already over 350 ppm, and the CO2-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases exceeds 400 ppm, thus the world is most likely already committed to exceeding the 1°C (2°F) limit. To avoid exceeding even the upper limit SEI estimates that greenhouse gas concentrations would have to be limited to 400-560 ppm CO2-equivalent.2

1U.S. Views on Global Climate Change. U.S. Department of State, April 1992.

2 This range is based on a climate sensitivity to doubling CO2 concentrations of 1.5-4.5°C, which has been accepted by the Bush Administration, as quoted above.