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TABLE III. (Cont'd.) Cases of specified notifiable diseases, United States, weeks ending May 7, 1988 and May 9, 1987 (18th Week)

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*Mortality data in this table are voluntarily reported from 121 cities in the United states, most of which have populations of 100,000 or more. A death is reported by the place of its occurrence and by the week that the death certificate was filed. Fetal deaths are not included. **Pneumonia and influenza.

†Because of changes in reporting methods in these 3 Pennsylvania cities, these numbers are partial counts for the current week. Complete counts will be available in 4 to 6 weeks.

††Total includes unknown ages.

{Data not available. Figures are estimates based on average of past available 4 weeks.

8 Long Beach, Calif.

89

63

4 Los Angeles Calif.

491

297 117

4 Oakland, Calif.

88

56

2 Pasadena, Calif.

34

25

10 Portland, Oreg.

124

98

3 Sacramento, Calif.

167

108

San Diego, Calif.

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San Francisco, Calif.

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Total

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4 TOTAL

12,413** 8,147 2,513 1,029

333 371 680

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than the United States and a higher percentage in the heterosexual, blood-related, and undetermined/other categories (Table 3). In addition, Europe has a higher percentage of pediatric patients in the hemophilia/coagulation-disorder category than the United States and a lower percentage with a parent with AIDS or at increased risk for AIDS. Intravenous (IV) drug users account for 64% of adult patients in Italy and 53% of adult patients in Spain. Both countries together reported 66% of the IV-drug-related cases in Europe. In the following six countries reporting more than 50 cases, 75% or more of the patients were homosexual males: the Netherlands (88%), the United

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TABLE 3. Reported AIDS cases among adult and pediatric patients, by transmission Europe, December 31, 1987, and United States, January 4, 1988*

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*The latest data analysis available for Europe is for December 31, 1987. The January 4, 1988, U.S. analysis is used here because it most closely approximates the time frame of the European analysis.

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Kingdom (87%), Denmark (86%), Sweden (81%), Norway (79%), and the Federal Republic of Germany (76%).

Africa

Thirty-eight countries in the African Region have reported 13% of the world's total AIDS cases. Fifteen African countries reported more than 50 cases each. Zimbabwe and Zaire have each reported 300 to 500 cases, and Uganda, Tanzania, Congo, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, and Zambia have each reported more than 500 cases. Central, eastern, and southern Africa have reported the largest number of cases. Although cases were first officially reported from Africa in the second half of 1982, over 70% of all cases (7,906) were reported in 1987.

Other Areas

Oceania has reported a total of 834 AIDS cases; Asia, a total of 231 cases; and the eastern Mediterranean countries, 100 cases. The major reporting countries (>20 cases) from these areas were Australia (758 cases), New Zealand (74), Japan (59), Qatar (32), and Turkey (21).

Discussion

Worldwide AIDS surveillance is coordinated by GPA at WHO in Geneva. Reports are received from collaborating centers, including CDC in the United States, the WHO Collaborating Centre in Paris, and WHO regional offices and ministries of health. Accuracy and completeness of AIDS reporting vary in different areas of the world. In 1985, a review of death certificates in the United States suggested that 89% of AIDS cases meeting the surveillance definition were reported (5). In Africa, reporting has only recently started in some countries and is, therefore, incomplete. Consequently, the proportion of AIDS cases that are reported in Africa is unknown. The WHO clinical case definition, used in areas where the prevalence of HIV is high, has a specificity of over 90% (6).

Epidemiologic studies indicate three broad yet distinct geographic patterns of transmission. Pattern I is typical of industrialized countries with large numbers of reported AIDS cases, such as North America, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and parts of Latin America. In these areas, most cases occur among homosexual or bisexual males and urban IV drug users. Heterosexual transmission is responsible for only a small percentage of cases but is increasing. Transmission due to exposure to blood and blood products occurred between the late 1970s and 1985 in these countries but has now been largely controlled through the self-deferral of persons at increased risk for AIDS and by routine blood screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody. The ratio of male to female patients ranges from 10:1 to 15:1, and, to date, perinatal transmission is relatively uncommon. Overall population seroprevalence is estimated to be less than 1% but has been measured at up to 50% in some groups practicing high-risk behaviors, such as IV drug users and men with multiple male sex partners.

Pattern II is observed in areas of central, eastern, and southern Africa and in some Caribbean countries. In these areas, most cases occur among heterosexuals; the male to female ratio is approximately 1:1; and perinatal transmission is relatively more common than in other areas. IV drug use and homosexual transmission either do not occur or occur at a very low level. In a number of these countries, overall population seroprevalence is estimated at more than 1%, and, in a few urban areas, up to 25% of As of April 1988, Zimbabwe officially retracted its report of 380 cases pending a national review of the accuracy of its reporting system.

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the sexually active age group is infected. Transmission through contaminated blood and blood products has been a significant problem and continues in those countries that have not yet implemented nationwide donor screening.

Pattern III is found in areas of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and most of the Pacific. HIV appears to have been introduced into these areas in the early to mid-1980s, and only small numbers of cases have been reported. Homosexual and heterosexual transmission have only recently been documented. Generally, cases have occurred among persons who have traveled to endemic areas or who have had sexual contact with individuals from endemic areas, such as homosexual men and female prostitutes. A small number of cases due to receipt of imported blood products has been reported.

Under its charter, the World Health Assembly of WHO has authorized GPA to develop and coordinate a global strategy for AIDS prevention and control. As of March 1988, 115 member states had agreed to collaborate in supporting and developing short-term (<1 year) plans for AIDS control. Between February 1987 and March 1988, GPA provided over 250 consultant visits to assist countries in developing these plans.

WHO is conducting worldwide surveillance of AIDS, developing standardized methods for HIV serosurveys, and creating a Global Commission on AIDS to provide GPA with scientific and technical guidance. In addition, experts have met in Geneva to discuss a variety of HIV-related issues. Health promotion and HIV prevention strategies have also been developed." GPA is organizing a network of specimen banks for geographically and temporally representative retroviral isolates and sera. GPA is also collaborating with a working group of leading AIDS virologists to standardize the characterization of HIV and related human retroviruses.

Although the number of AIDS cases is expected to increase significantly over the next few years, there is growing confidence that the spread of HIV can be stopped. Stopping HIV infection, however, will require a commitment that goes beyond geographic boundaries. Education and the means to eliminate or modify risk factors and risk behaviors will be the key. The global control of AIDS will require both committed national AIDS programs and strong international coordination, cooperation, and leadership.

Reported by: J Chin, MD, CF von Reyn, MD, K Esteves, G Peterson, MD, E Brenner, MD, J Mann, MD, Global Programme on AIDS, WHO. JB Brunet, MD, RA Ancelle, MD, WHO Collaborating Centre on AIDS, Institut de Médecine et d'Épidémiologie Africaines et Tropicales, Paris, France. References

1. Centers for Disease Control. Revision of the CDC surveillance case definition for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. MMWR 1987;36(suppl 1S).

2. World Health Organization. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS): 1987 revision of CDC/WHO case definition for AIDS. Wkly Epidem Rec 1988;63:1-7.

3. World Health Organization. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS): WHO/CDC case definition for AIDS. Wkly Epidem Rec 1986;61:69-73.

4. Institut de Médicine et d'Épidémiologie Africaines et Tropicales. Aids surveillance in Europe. Paris: Institut de Médecine et d'Épidémiologie Africaines et Tropicales, 1987. (Quarterly report no. 16).

5. Hardy AM, Starcher ET II, Morgan WM, et al. Review of death certificates to assess completeness of AIDS case reporting. Public Health Rep 1987;102:386-91.

6. Colebunders R, Mann JM, Francis H, et al. Evaluation of a clinical case-definition of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Africa. Lancet 1987;1:492-4.

Published materials on these topics may be obtained by writing to the Global Programme on AIDS, WHO, 1211 Geneva, 27-Switzerland.

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