nationwide survey to measure consumer attitudes toward and preferences for home heating fuels. Each of the annual studies was based on personal interviews of a minimum of 2,000 adults.

Among other things, this series of surveys measures consumer preferences for heating fuels in new homes.

Since 1964, there has been a substantial jump in consumer preferences for electric heat in new homes, going from 22% to 36%. During the same period, you will note the steady decline for oil heat and what appears to be the start of a downward trend in consumer preferences for gas heat.

In passing, I might invite your attention to the fact that based on current trends it looks as though electric heat for new homes will rank first in consumer preferences within the next year or two.

In any survey, or series of surveys, there is always a question of the validity of the findings. The ORC people have assured us that the most advanced sampling techniques known were employed in the studies and, therefore, the findings could be considered highly reliable. Over the past few years, our confidence in the validity of these surveys has grown steadily for several reasons:

Two similar national studies, one sponsored by AGA and the other by a leading trade journal, produced consumer preference figures that matched our survey's almost identically. As a further indication of the reliability of our findings, the market saturations of various fuels as revealed in our surveys prove to be the same as those released by industry and government sources.

For these reasons, we have, as I mentioned, great confidence that the preference figures I showed a minute ago are accurate.

As reassuring as these various items proved to be,

The first column of figures shows the percentage of all homes built by major heating fuels. The 3% not shown here is accounted for by "other" fuels. The next column "Builder Homes" shows the same information on new homes built during this period for which the fuel decision was made by the builder. These are speculative homes, usually in tracts, and purchasers do not have an option on the type of heating system or fuel offered.

The next two columns report on heating decisions made by home purchasers who either awarded a contract for the construction of their homes or functioned as the general contractor for their homes and subcontracted the construction.

In these last two columns the consumer makes the decision as to the type of heating fuel to be used.

But it is the Commerce Department Report itself I would like to dwell on.

What these figures say is this:

When builders made the decision as to the type of heating to go into new homes, they decided to use electric 13% of the time. When consumers chose electric, they decided to use it 26% to 29% of the time. Builders selected gas heat 77% of the time for new homes, while consumers selected it 45% to 51% of the time. Builders selected oil 9% of the time, while consumers chose oil 17% to 19% of the time.

That roughly is what the figures say. And since these data come from the Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census, I think it is safe to accept the figures as accurate. Assuming their accuracy, we can derive at least two fairly obvious conclusions from these percentages.

It seems that in addition to the information and credibility gaps we hear about, there's a Builder's Gap as well.

There is a gap between what the builder is offering the public and what the public wants in home heating. It seems to me that such a gap raises questions that are important not only to energy suppliers but also to builders.

The first question that suggests itself is: Why is there such a pronounced spread between builder practices in this instance and home buyer preferences?

I am not at all sure I know the final answer to this question; nor am I sure there is even a final answer to it. I suspect a number of factors go into an explanation.

For one thing, it appears obvious from the statistics that the gas industry must be credited with doing an outstanding selling job to the builder audience. When you consider the results the gas people are achieving-selling gas heat for new homes at a rate 50% above consumer preferences-you must tip your hat to their aggressiveness and selling ability. One out of every three gas heated new homes built in 1966 for speculative sale had a heating fuel in it that the home buyer did not prefer. To us in the space conditioning industry, this is an amazing statistic. Yet there it is.

It suggests, in addition to the acknowledged selling ability of the gas people, another of the factors that might explain the "Builder's Gap". It must be that the type of heating fuel offered in a new home is not an overriding consideration to the home buyer. In the hierarchy of important features offered in a new home, buyers apparently do not rate the type of heating fuel near the top. If they did, surely gas could not be as oversold as it is.

Still a third factor in the explanation, I think, is the resistance to change so frequently demonstrated in the home building industry. That such resistance exists is both apparent and understandable. Homebuilders have learned through the years, frequently at high cost to themselves, that changes in the basics of the homes they offer for sale are not to be made precipitously. There is, in my opinion, undue criticism directed at builders for this display of conservatism. After all, it is their money that is being invested in the homes they build and they have every right to make decisions based upon their interests. Experience has taught them that gas heating is acceptable, even wanted, by the majority of home buyers. That is reason enough for them to stay with