ncidentally, these estimates are based on the assumption of a 3 percent rate nemployment for 1975, and are based also on the assumption that employnt at that time will be determined by the level of employment over the past de—i.e., that government policies will not lower unemployment below 3 cent of the labor force, and that no significant changes in technology, job gn, etc., will take place. Some students of manpower and economic developit might be skeptical about using factual trends of the past, based on one icular set of public policies and programs, as a source of decisionmaking o what to do about the future. This skepticism is derived partly from the ef that we should concentrate more on creative policies leading to new job s for the future, and not just on statistics of the past.

estry Changes

he same qualification also applies to Department of Labor employment proƆns by industry division, cited in Table VIII.

veral features of these projections should be noted. One, the fantastic drop e number of people that will be working in agriculture, 840,000. We are amiliar with the magnitude of the shift that has already taken place. For ple, in just the five years after 1960, 1.1 million jobs in agriculture simply peared, a percentage decline of 20 percent.

the National Industrial Conference Board's Desk Sheet of Business Trends il 1968) tells us:

. fast-growing productivity in agriculture reduces the size of the work ce needed on the farm-even as output increases. The drop in farm pulation is concentrated among families with young children, especially ong nonwhites. . . .Between 1960 and 1967, output per man-hour on ms jumped 45%; man-hours of labor required on farms dropped 27%, total farmland acreage shrank 3%. . . .

t appears that consolidation of small farms into larger ones or retirent of small marginal farms has affected nonwhites particularly, and ecially so in the South. . . .Between 1960 and 1967 the nonwhite ulation on farms fell 50%-1.28 million.

Source: Table E-9, Manpower Report of the President, 1967.

Incidentally, we must also keep in mind that income from farming only is actually a small source of total income to the farm population: the fact is that 60 percent of the income of farm operators and 75 percent of the income of their other family members are derived from work off the farm. And these percentages continue to rise.

Furthermore, between 1959 and 1966, the number of poor persons living on farms fell from 6.8 to 2.4 million men, women, and children—a percentage decline of 65 percent! For the most part, they moved to the urban areas, seeking work for themselves and their families but woefully unprepared by their previous environment, experience, and education to cope with the labor market of the urban world.

The second feature about the previous two tables is that the bulk of the employment increase (63 percent) will probably occur in the professional, technical, and white-collar kinds of occupations, which traditionally call for males with higher education or for females. This becomes significant when we consider that by 1975 we will still have nearly a third of young males (under

without a high school diploma. And this age group will rise more sharply all others, as noted earlier. Just among males 25-34 years old, the estimate _at 4.2 million of them will be without a high school diploma but neverthein the labor force. If these projections are correct, we will continue to need ing programs and even pressures to redesign job requirements to fit the vidual.

bird, despite some contrary beliefs, the number of craftsmen and foremen increase by 2.2 million between 1965 and 1975. This estimate should be led with the one relating to industry changes, in which it is expected that ontract construction the projected increase of one million jobs will conte a proportional rise in that 10-year period of nearly one-third-the highest ortional rise of all goods-producing industries. In other words, apprentice, middle-echelon jobs, upgrading, and housing and office-building contion-in a word, urban reconstruction activities-do offer a promising ce of employment opportunities if the proper manpower and economic ies and programs are started on now.

urth, there is the rather vague and miscellaneous job category unfortunately ed in the aggregate as "service occupations," but which could contain a potential for increased job opportunities. For the record, we ought to - clear what is included in this grab-bag. It includes the following types of barbers, firemen, waiters, bartenders, protective service workers, policeand detectives, private household workers, hairdressers, and janitors.

e should not confuse this occupational category with the industry category e same name. The "service industries" include: advertising, private house, barber and beauty shops, auto repairing, hotels and motels, hospitals, ers and movie houses, schools, and governments.

pinpoint the matter further, in the last full Census count (1960), 59 nt of all male service workers were in service industries (professional and d services, government, and "other" industries); and 74 percent of female e workers were in the same types of service industries.

th, and the main point, service jobs and service industries are going to ise tremendously by 1975. If we concentrate only on the service industries, less of occupation, the projection is that in government alone nearly 4 on jobs additional will be available--an increase of 39 percent. More than

: more than one-half of all these female service workers were employed in private olds as domestics. And nearly one-half of all such female service workers in private holds were nonwhite, with mean earnings in 1959 of $864. Even if nonwhite s in this job and industry worked 50 or more weeks in that year, the mean earnere only $1,157 (as compared to $2,055 mean earnings for all year-round emnonwhite females, and $1,809 for year-round employed white females in the same 1 industry).

93 percent of such jobs will be with state and local government agencies, not with the federal government-and even the latter excludes military service jobs. This increase raises the question of public service employment as a major policy issue-discussed below.

An almost equal number of additional jobs in other service industries (such as advertising, maintenance, tourism, health, etc.) is expected-about 3.8 million; and another 3.4 million additional ones in trade activities—and more than three-fourths of this increase in retail trade alone.

The basic conclusion from all of this analysis of projections is that, given the right economic policies and conditions for sound economic growth (and excluding the risks of a resource-wasting war), and from the standpoint of numbers only, there can be enough jobs to employ all persons who need and want to work. But this simple statement raises some further questions:

1. Will the society, through government and private industry, pursue the "right" policies and establish the "right" conditions?

2. To what extent will the underemployed, the working poor, and other jobseekers be qualified to fill the jobs ostensibly available as a result of effective policies in the public and private spheres; will they also be in the right places, i.e., where the jobs are?

These two questions have to do with the outcome of current proposals and ongoing programs in the field of economic and manpower development.

Private and Public Employment

At the current time, a great deal of government energy and resources is being put into appeals to the private sector (especially the giants of private industry) to hire, train, and keep employed large numbers of unemployed and underemployed youths and adult men and women. In addition to the government's relying on basic motive of sheer community civic service and perhaps even of pure and simple survival, in the light of the recent "civil disorders" (on the assumption that lack of jobs or low-level jobs are the root cause of the rioting and looting)—the government has also sought to use "incentives" with private industry in the form of subsidies to offset the costs of recruiting, training, supervising, and maintaining on the job residents of our cities' slum areas.

It may be too soon to judge such effects as CEP, MA-1 through MA-3, etc., but it appears that to date the efforts have not produced large numbers of successful placements. Perhaps the incentives have not been enough for potential employers. Perhaps too few potential employers have been reached (the techniques and/or the target employers may have been limited). Possibly there may be

lems not anticipated by the administrators and employers in these various grams and projects around the country---problems caused by handicaps of hard-core unemployed and underemployed such as illiteracy, poor health, 5 and misconceptions about the nature of work and supervision; by lack reparation of trainers and supervisors on the job for coping with the handiof such persons, etc. Discrimination based on racism continues to plague job market also.

t any rate, it may well be that even with the best of motives, the best of iting, training, on-the-job techniques, etc., the actual numbers of jobs now able for the hard-core unemployed and underemployed in private industry imited, or not readily accessible to such persons (in terms of location of versus location of people). In general, it may well be that at the present the demand within private industry for entry jobs (even with needs for ing normal turnover, retirements, etc.) is too low to absorb all jobseekers he areas where the jobs are.

preliminary report by the National Committee on Employment of Youth ding the accomplishments of job-creation and placement programs by government and by the National Alliance of Businessmen (NAB)——-a te-sector approach backed up by government incentives--stated that "emers in the public sector seem to be achieving the hiring goals more readily those in the private sector." The survey's data on 18 of the 50 largest in which NAB projects were initiated revealed that as of mid-July only 34 jobs were filled-in contrast to 131,000 originally planned as the sumob goal in those cities.

his is not necessarily a criticism of the sincerity and intent of the many cated employers and their representatives involved in the campaign of the onal Alliance of Businessmen. Samuel M. Burt and Herbert E. Striner, in ent staff paper published by the Institute, pointed out in great detail what imitations are of a job-creation program relying heavily on the private . For one thing, it may be too much for middle-sized and small companies ovide the total gamut of services (including recruiting, remedial reading, h services, redesigning of jobs, counseling, financial assistance in crises of workers, and reorientation of regular workers and supervisors) required ake such campaigns a success.

rt and Striner also raise the question as to whether there is a real and ive demand in the private sector sufficient to employ the majority of the core unemployed and underemployed-adults as well as youths in addio those jobseekers already qualified to fill entry-level jobs. Furthermore,

point out:

nmer Jobs for Youth, 1968, National Committee on Employment of Youth, July 68, mimeographed, p. 8.