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persist.

Since neither are known in this case, table 3 illustrates

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the situation with three alternative discount rates and durations of benefits. I leave it to the reader to choose the ratio between the

costs and the benefits he prefers among these alternative illustrations.

Annual Income by Enrollee Characteristics

Manpower program

evaluators have always been plagued with the nagging probability that in less than full employment, any observed gains for enrollees were

won at the expense of others who would have.obtained those jobs and

earnings in the absence of the program. Public expenditures on behalf of specific individuals or groups are generally accepted when one of three conditions prevail: 1) When tire expenditure results in an increase in the gross national product sufficient that the ertire

society can have a higher disposable incore despite the expenditure; 2) When the expenditure results in a sufficient decrease in social costs that the same is true; and, 3) When the public has decided, through its representatives, to redistribute income in favor of that

broup:

The GNP impact cannot be neasured for ADTA, since it would be

necessary to assume that the jobs obtained by the MDTA enrollees would

have otherwise remained idle and that the production they were

responsible for would not have occurred.

There is also no data avail

able to support the second justification.

However, it is declared public

policy to use manpower and other programs to redistribute income in

favor of those defined as disadvantaged; that is, those who are:

1.

Both poor and without satisfactory employment; and

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nent.

The disadvantaged are to receive priority to the extent that

sixty-five percent of the overall enrollment should meet the designated

criteria.

However, the targei need not be applied to any particular

individual or project.

The remaining thirty-five percent is expected

to reduce labor shortages, an effect which could be expected to

increase the GNP if it could be shown (a) that labor shortages cxisted

and (b) trat !DTA. was training for them.' The two objectives need not be

mutually exclusive since disadvantaged persons can be trained to fill

labor shortages.

Å vital test of DTA's validity, therefore, is the

proportion of disadvantaged among its enrollees, even if there is no

assurance that others equally disadvantaged would not have obtained

the jobs.

The follow-up study produced only personal income data for the

pre-training period, while the poverty criteria are derived for families. The personal income of non-farily heads cannot be assuned

to represent those of the family but the personal incomes of heads of

households should be a reasonable approxiination.

Considering family

size, assuming all household heads to be non-rural and under 65 (truc of a lmost all), and assuming household heads to have been typical of the whole sample, sixty-nine percent of the Institutional cnrollees and fifty-six percent of those in ojt net the definition of disadvantaged.

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*These zene is 20 10 **** 32.exees between pre and posttrair one's cezaset

aces for only those with at least one job iz each of the

is. by various characteristies, nes 32:3d slightly nore than nen from institutional earo!!ent rita aca gainis slightly more in OJT. Whites gererally made greater gaiss thaa Paes with Spanish-Americans

consistently making the greatest gains of any ethnic groups.

The Impact of Program Mix

Having looked at "who gains most",

what can be lcarned of the relatie contributions of alternative mixes

of services? Originally, ADTA projects were organized in class size groups and were held in public schools during off-hours or in rental facilities. Subsequently, skills centers were established to provide a range of training offerings accompanied by on-site orientation, counseling, placement and supportive services. More recently, individual enrollees have been referred to on-going school courses

vith their tuition paid by BDTA.

111 three types now coexist and

their relative effectiveness is of interest.

There are significant differences among the income impacts of

the three program types according to the measure used.

The median

incone gain for individual reforral enrollees was $2,380, corepared to

$1,980 for skils center eurolleas 220 $1,860 for class size projects (tabiri of those azounts, $961 for the skill center enrollees, $1,902 for the

individual referrals and $1,054 for group-sized projects were accounted

for by the employment of those who held no jobs in the pre-training

period. of the remaining portion of the income gains, $621 for the skill centers, $328 for individual referrals and $524 for class-sized projects were attributable to improved enployment stability for those already in the labor force. The remainder, $398 for skill centers,

$150 for individual referrals and 3242 for class-sized training were

the consequences of wage increases.

Apparently individual referral

found heavy use and was effective for bringing into the labor force

those who vero previously outside it.,

Skill centers were most

effective for adding to the employzont stability of those already in the labor force and for increasing age rates. This squares with tho

Table 6

Conparative Income Gains of Skills Center, Class Size Projects and Individual Referral by Source

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