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Since the post-training period was one of rising unemployinent,
it is reasonable to assume that noarly all of the labor force
participation and employment stability gains were contributions of
the BIDTA participation.
In fact, just maintaining the same employ
ment levels would have been an achievement and the actual gain over
what would otherwise have happened may be even greater than shown. However, despite the rising unemployment, 1969, 1970 and 1971
were periods of upward wage trends.
It is problematical what the
impact of inflation was on the lower levels of the wage structure
represented by the post-training jobs. The average percentage wage
increase for the Institutional enrollees vas twenty-one porcent
compared to twenty percent for OJT. An average of 20 months clapsed betweon the micipoints of the pre- and post-training periods. Overall
national wage levels having increased an average of seven percent
per year, twelve percent is not an unlikely figure to attribute to
general wage increases for the 20-month period.
That being the case, fifty-two percent of the wage increases for Institutional
trainees and firty-five percent of the 'wage increases .
for OJT enrollees may be attributable to general wage trends which mighi
have occurred in the absence of the program.
However, most of the
annual income increase resulted from labor force participation and
employment stability impacts. Deducting the estimated contribution for general wage trends would still leave the annual income ircrease
attributable to Institutional training at $1621 and that from OJT at
The increased labor force participation which is the most inportant source of income gain is also the source of a possible uplare!
76-736 O - 72 - pt, 3 - 13
bi.2s, given the age distribution among enrollees produced by high
levels of youth unemployment.
Many of those not working or seeking
work or working sporadically before enrolling in MDTA may have been
ing out the income gains and the source of the gains by age provides
some insight into the influence of the aging process.
All age groups
gained from each influence but the 19-21 age group gained most fron
increased labor force participation (with the exception of the 15 and
Interesting aberations are the gains of the older group from
labor force participation after Institutional training and waye
improvements after OJT.
The aging process is a contributor but
apparently not the most important explanatory variable in the total
Costs of the Income Gains
No data was gathered on the costs
incurred in training the enrollecs in the samplc, precluding a valid
cost benefit analysis.
Ilowever, an approximation can be reached by
comparing the income gains of the enrollees to the average per trainee
expenditures of the total ADTA program (Table 3).
These are only the federal budgetary costs. Excluded are costs to state and local government not subsidized from ID'TA budgets. Also excluded are personal costs to the cnrollees such as foregone earnings and out-of-pocket costs incident to training. However, with the
average annual pre-training income of Institutional cnrollces at
$2570 and the average training period of about four months, foregone
earnings would have anounted to only $823.
stipends of between $15 and $50 a week, approximately those that
prevail, should have compensated for any income loss. of course, received pay while training.
Includes part-time and other training in addition to Institutional and OJT.
Includes stipends constituting over one-làlf of total costs.
$15,918 $13, 120
$ 8, 203
Because of the possible lack of congruence between the benefits
to a sample enrolled during one year and the costs occurring to the
entire program over its whole life, it would not be wise to attributo an undue validity to this benefit-cost relationship. At the same tine the general magnitudes of the relationships are not without significance.
Costs for any particular enrollce are a one-time phenomenon, whereas
income gains are a flow res vry:ng persistently for some undetermined
period of time.
*id comparison, it is necessary to
derive a current value for the expected future incone strean by discount
ing the annual income gain by the opportunity cost of the rate of
return to be expected from alternative uses of the same funds and estinating the number of years one expects the incremental incorno to