It Doesn't Have to Hurt The study uses a technology-by-technology and economic-engineering modeling approach. Energy-efficiency options are modeled in the buildings, transportation, and Industry sectors. Conversion of coal plants to nature! s, dispatching plants under $25 and $50 per ton carbon prices, and accelerating Investment in biomass cofiring and wind are modeled for the electric sector. Additional options considered include advanced gas turbines in industry, transportation biofuels, and fuel cells in buildings. The study's major conclusions are: (1) a vigorous national commitment to use energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies can reduce energy use sufficiently to lower carbon emissions to their 1990 level by 2010, (2) substantial additional savings in carbon emissions can be achieved if carbon is taxed or permit prices-under a cap and permit trading system-rise above $50 per ton carbon, (3) the energy and carbon emissions reductions can be achieved at savings nearly equal to or greater than costs, and (4) next generation technologies can continue the pace of carbon reductions over the next 15 years. Energy Innovations-Alliance, ACEEE, NRDC, Tellus Institute, and UCS Energy Innovations analyzes a balanced strategy for an economically and sustainable U.S. energy future. The strategy-called the Innovative Path-comprises a set of pro grams and policies of performance standards, Incentives, Information, and transaction cost reductions applied through 2030. Policy approaches include renewables content standards of electric supply, emissions performance standards through caps and an emissions trading system, advanced vehicles programs featuring higher fuel economy and emis slons standards, an investment tax credit for Industry investment in new manufacturing equipment, and market introduction incentives for new technology demonstration and adoption. Key technologies analyzed include fuel cells in vehicles and buildings, advanced gas turbines in industry, integrated green building designs, membrane technology in industrial processes, fuels and electricity from biomass, advanced wind turbines, and photovoltaic modules for homes and businesses. The study used the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) developed by the Energy Information Administration (U.S. DOE). The Long-Range Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model was used to model the industrial sector. Parts of the transportation sector and renewables were also modeled off-line and incorporated in NEMS. Because NEMS only projects impacts to 2010, Impacts through 2030 were modeled separately with sector-specific models. Overall economy impacts were obtained using the IMPLAN macroeconomic model. The study's main results are: (1) energy consumption is 15 percent lower than business-as-usual (BAU) by 2010 and 42 percent lower by 2030, (2) renewables supply 14 percent of U.S. energy needs by 2010 and 32 percent by 2030, (3) energy efficiency and fuel-mix changes reduce CO emissions 10 percent below the 1990 level by 2010 compared to a 21 percent increase for BAU, (4) consumers save $58 billion (the difference between levelized capital: costs and energy savings) in 2010, or $530 per household, and (5) the GDP is $2.8 billion larger and 773,000 more jobs are created by 2010. 2 'Per ton carbon prices could be substantially lower taking into account potential international carbon trade, and joint implementation mechanisms. Past Contributions A 414 MMC reduction would reduce carbon emissions from carbon dioxide to 12 percent below the 1990 level (1,372 MMTC). By 2025, carbon emissions could decline by 914 to 976 MMrC (44 to 54 percent) compared to projected business-as-usual emissions. These reductions result in carbon emissions 29 to 33 percent below the 1990 emissions level." Figure 6 shows the energy consumption from 1995 to 2030 under a business-as-usual (the present path) scenario. It also shows the scenario of energy efficiency, natural gas substitution for coal in electric generation, and penetration of advanced technologies (the "innovative" path)." Without investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy, energy use would rise from 85 quads in 1995 to 119 quads in 2030. Investing in energy efficiency would provide 51 quads of energy savings by 2030 and renewables would provide 7 quads. Carbon emissions would decline below the 1990 level by 2010, according to the innovative path in Energy Innovations as shown in Figure 7. This path relies on the vigorous pursuit of energy efficiency, renewables, and the almost complete substitution by 2030 of natural gas for coal in electric generation. Notes: BAU Business-as-Usual Source: ASE. et al. Energy Innovations. 1997. 50-343 99-16 Selected Technologies— Potential for Carbon Emissions Reductions Reducing carbon emissions through energy efficiency and renewable energy depends on investing in hundreds of technology options. Energy EfficiencyBuilding Codes, Lighting, and Steam Traps Reducing energy use by investing in energy-efficiency technologies is the least expensive way to reduce...bon emissions. In fact, the carbon savings come free with almost all energy-efficiency measures because the money the measures save on energy costs pays for the investment. Energy efficiency's carbon emissions reduction potential is enormous. Scenarios says 126 million tons of carbon (MtC) emissions can be avoided in 2010 through energy efficiency. Up to 258 MrC (266 MrC including utility supply options) would be avoided under its $50/ton carbon tax or tradable permit case. Energy Innovations identifies approximately 294 MtC in avoidable carbon emissions through energy efficiency. There are hundreds of energy-efficient opportunities covering all sectors and energy uses. We highlight below several examples for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Adoption of Residential Current levels of insulation in residential buildings save 10.4 quads of energy annually and reduce carbon emissions by 184 million tons. An additional 1.9 quads could be saved if all residential buildings in the United States were upgraded to the levels in the latest model energy code (MEC). This would avoid another 34 million tons of carbon emissions." In 1993 and 1995, the Council of American Building Officials updated the MEC for new home constructionsingle-family and multi-family—to improve the energy efficiency of the code. Most of the improvements were in the form of increasing insulation values. As of the summer of 1997, 31 states had codes that were effectively weaker than the 1993/95 MEC. By adopting the updated MEC, these states would save new home buyers energy and, in turn, reduce carbon emissions. Fears that the MEC will make homes too expensive are unfounded. There are approximately 716,000 new single-family homes built each year and It Doesn't Have to Hurt 126,000 multi-family dwellings. The added cost of building the typical new single-family home to meet the MEC is $1,161. But the better insulated home saves 9.9 million Btu in fuel at an annual savings average of $122 per year. If the added construction cost is financed through the mortgage (at an added cost of $10 per month on average) and potential fuel price increases are taken into account, a quick payback is possible. Taking into account the mortgage financing, the average time to positive cash flow for single-family new home buyers is just 1.8 years. It is 2.2 years for multi-family homebuyers. Each MEC-compliant single-family home will avoid emitting 0.24 tons of carbon per year. 10 Table 1 shows the potential aggregate costs and benefits of the MEC for homeowners in states that currently don't adhere to the code. Full adoption of the updated MEC by all states will result in 0.096 quads of energy savings and almost 3 million tons of carbon savings. The cost of a ton of carbon saved" is actually a negative $121.78-in other words, the carbon savings are free. The present value of the energy savings over the 30-year anticipated life of the home are greater than the added cost of building the home to the updated code, making the cost of a ton of carbon a free by-product of the adoption of the better codes. Commercial High-Efficiency Approximately 2.785 quads of energy are used each year to light commercial buildings. Typical current technology uses fixtures comprised of four 40-watt T12 lamps controlled by two energy-efficient magnetic ballasts. These units consume 522 kWh per year on average. They cost $81.60 to purchase and install. In contrast, typical best-performance fixtures are comprised of three 32-watt T8 lamps and one electronic, instant-start ballast. These fixtures consume only 307 kWh per year on average, a 41 percent savings over the less |