It Doesn't Have to Hurt of efficient, clean, and renewable energy technologies. For example: Building all new residential housing to meet 1995 model energy codes will save 0.096 quads and just under 3 MrC in 2010 at no cost per ton of carbon saved. (The carbon savings are in fact free because the energy savings more than offset the added investment.) Replacing all non-efficient commercial fluorescent lighting with highefficiency fluorescent lamps and instant-start electronic ballasts will save just over 1 quad and more than 21 MrC in 2010 at no cost per ton of carbon saved. Replacing failed steam traps in industrial processes will save about 1 quad and 18.5 MtC in 2010 at no cost per ton of carbon saved. Investing in industrial insulation opportunities will save 0.06 quads and 1.11 MC in 2010, again, at no cost per ton of carbon saved. Replacing half of the coal-fired electric generating plants 35 years or older with combined-cycle natural gas and converting half of all other coal-fired plants to burn natural gas • Investing in the estimated full • Installing 1 million 4-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems will save 0.075 quads and almost 2 MtC at no cost if PV system costs fall by two-thirds by 2010 as predicted. Reducing carbon emissions doesn't have to hurt. In fact, investing in energy efficiency, low-carbon natural gas, and renewable energy will provide the impetus for creative and economic solutions that will benefit people regardless of their current living standar ds. The end result will be a relatively painless transition to an efficiently and cleanly fueled world where the threat of global climate change is diminished. Introduction This report documents how three energy resources-energy efficiency, natural gas, and renewable energy— have contributed in the past and can contribute in the future to help meet the U.S. share of international commitments made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere act to keep heat in the lower atmosphere. According to the consensus of 2,500 eminent scientists, the build up of greenhouse gases due to human activity will increasingly alter and intensify the climate. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide-the dominant greenhouse gas by volumehas risen from about 250 parts per billion to about 340 parts per billion. Without mitigating the increase in carbon emissions, the scientists predict the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach double the preindustrial revolution level within two to three decades, and will quadruple that level by the end of the 21 * century. The scientists warn that such a rise in carbon dioxide concentration levels will result in potentially substantial changes in the climate, which would be accompanied by increasingly costly disrup rising sea levels, altered agricultural activity, more severe weather, and spreading of infectious diseases. This report will show that significant reductions in carbon emissions are possible by investing in energy efficiency, low-carbon fuels, and renewable energy. It will also show-as 2,000 economists attest—that measurable reductions can be achieved without hurting the economy. It will show that the cost of saving carbon is a free by-product of energy efficiency and a low-cost, or potentially low-cost, option for renewable energy like wind and solar, as well as a low-cost option for using natural gas in place of coal and oil. These options are available today. By taking advantage of these options in greater numbers, the U.S. economy can start transforming itself from a high energy use, polluting economy to an energy-efficient and less polluting economy. Some argue that the scientists are wrong about climate change. But even if the doubters are right, we will benefit from cleaner, healthier air, reduced dependence on foreign oil, economic expansion, lower energy bills, and greater comfort in the process. Simply put, we will have no regrets. Past Contributions to Since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy combined to reduce carbon emissions more than any other action. In order to understand how this occurred, we need to look at energy use over that period. Since 1983 (the year the rise in real energy prices peaked), actual energy use (per capita) has been growing at about 1.85 percent annually. We now consume as much energy per person as we did in 1973. Figure 1 shows actual energy use in the United States from 1973 through 1996. Energy efficiency-which comprises the bulk of the green area-can be thought of as supplying energy indirectly by providing equivalent energy services without the actual consumption of energy. Without the United States' inv estment in energy efficiency and renewable energy, actual energy use would have equaled the combined areas in Figure 1. For example, from 1973 through 1996, the share of what our energy consumption would have been, but was provided by energy efficiency and renewable energy, rose from 0.3 percent in 1973 to 27.4 percent in 1996, reaching a peak share of 33.6 percent in 1991. › 3 Figure 2 shows how different energy needed in the United States from 1973 • From 1973 through 1996, energy It Doesn't Have to Hurt Over the entire period, energy efficiency and renewable energy provided more than four-fifths (83.5 percent) of all new energy needs. • Actual additional energy supply since 1973 has been almost exclusively provided by electricity generated by coal and nuclear. • Petroleum consumption declined throughout most of the period, returning only to its 1973 consumption levels in 1996. Figure 3 shows the impacts on carbon emissions of the changes in energy supply from 1973 through 1996. From 1973 through 1996, declines in oil use. combined with investment in energy ef ficiency and renewable energy, more than offset increases in greenhouse gas emissions from the increased use of coal to generate electricity. In Figure 3, each bar shows the net. additions (above 0.0) or subtractions (below 0.0) to carbon emissions each year from 1973 levels for coal, natural gas, oil, and energy efficiency plus renewable energy. Coal use, since it has increased each year except 1974 and 1975, has added to carbon emissions. Oil and natural gas consumption declined most years, which resulted in lower emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy resulted in the majority of avoided carbon emissions. Without the contributions from energy efficiency and renewable energy, carbon emissions today would be significantly higher. The investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy by themselves Past Contributions saved 7,533 million metric tons of carbon (MMTC) over the 23-year period. This compares to 933 MMtC and 466 MMC saved by cumulative reductions in natural gas and oil use, respectively. Over the same period, however, increased use of coal in electric generation resulted in 2,284 additional MMTC released into the atmosphere. The net cumulative effect is that carbon emissions from additional economic growth-while higher by 885 MMTC-were 6,678 MMtC less than they would have been over the period had the United States not invested in energy efficiency and renewable energy. These studies, using different methodologies and different scenarios (see next page), reach the same conclusion-substantial reductions in energy use and carbon emissions can be achieved by 2010 and 2025 at low cost and with positive benefits to the economy. Figure 4 shows the projected energy savings (in quads) of the three studies. By 2010, 12 to 16 quads of energy could be saved, which is 12 to 15 percent of the energy that would otherwise be consumed." By 2025, 36 to 45 quads could be saved, or 33 to 39 percent of business-as-usual use.' Figure 5 shows that by 2010, carbon emissions could decline by 390 to 414 MMIC (23 to 25 percent). |