Increased End-User Expenditures on Energy Under Tradeable Permits Scenarios: EIA Policy Base Case versus a 1990 Level Emissions Scenario-2010 Data From Table C2 and C3 of EIA Service Report, Analysis of Carbon Stabilization Cases. October 1997 APPENDIX C Climate Science Remains Uncertain Under a December 1997 agreement on climate change reached in Kyoto, Japan, the United States and developed nations would be required to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions at high costs to consumers and the U.S. economy. Such action is premature. The following quotes demonstrate the fact that substantial scientific uncertainties remain regarding possible human impacts on the earth's climate. Unsettled Science "It's unfortunate that many people read the media hype before they read the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] chapter [the official advisory document to the UN climate negotiators]....I think the caveats are there. We say quite clearly that few scientists would say the attribution issue was a done deal.”—Dr. Benjamin Santer, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, Chapter 8 lead author on "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes," and research scientist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Science, Vol. 276, May 16, 1997. "...scientists at Scripps [Institute of Oceanography] contribute to the understanding of the climate machine. We need this understanding to resolve the questions about human impact on the global environment. We need to penetrate the fog ahead by improving our forecasting headlights. In the meantime, while we don't know what the fog is hiding, perhaps we should all ease off on the gas pedal, both figuratively and literally. It would only be prudent.”—Dr. Wolfgang Berger, research scientist, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, San Diego Tribune, June 25, 1997. Appendix E "In our view the NRC [National Research Council] panel seriously underestimates the research effort required to reduce the uncertainty in aerosol forcing to the specified level....In the absence of this research, knowledge of climate response to greenhouse forcing necessary for confident policymaking will be reliant entirely on climate models having little credible empirical confirmation."-Dr. Stephen E. Schwartz, atmospheric chemist, Brookhaven Institute and Dr. Meinrat O. Andreae, biogeochemist, Max Planck Institute, Science, Vol. 272, May 24, 1996. "The earth could still flip back into its ice age, so tomorrow the politicians might be telling us we're going back into a glaciation and to chop down all the trees, burn all the coal and start driving cars."-Dr. Jane Francis, palaeoclimatologist, Leeds University, Reuters, September 11, 1997. "We could be coming out of the colder phase into the warmer phase of the cycle right now....It's probably fair to say that we're seeing a component of natural variability."—Dr. Gerard Bond, lead researcher, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, The New York Times, November 18, 1997. "We figure half the climate change from 1850 to now can be accounted for by the Sun."-Dr. Judith Lean, solar physicist, Naval Research Laboratory, The New York Times, September 23, 1997. "Global warming is not proven."—Sir John Mason, chair, graduate school of environment, Imperial College's Centre for Environmental Technology, Reuters World Service, July 15, 1997. "The temperatures we measure from space are actually on a very slight downward trend |