REFERENCES Acosta Moreno, R., R. Baron, P. Bohm, W. Chandler, V. Cole, O. Davidson, G. Dutt, E. Haites, H. Ishitani, D. Kruger, M. Levine, L. Zhong, L. Michaelis, W. Moomaw, J. R. Moreira, A. Mosier, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, L. Price, N. H. Ravindranath, H.-H. Rogner, J. Sathaye, P. Shukla, L. Van Wie McGrory and T. Williams, 1996: Technologies, policies and measures for mitigating climate change. IPCC Technical Paper 1. R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 84pp. di Primio, J. C., 1993: Estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels combustion in the main sectors of selected countries 1971-1990. BMFT (Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie), Ikarus Teilprojekt 9, Jülich, Germany, 177 pp. Enting, I. G., T. M. L. Wigley and M. Heimann, 1994: Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land analyses, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper 31, Mordialloc, Australia, 120 pp. Harvey, L. D. D., J. Gregory, M. Hoffert, A. Jain, M. Lal, R. Leemans, S. C. B. Raper, T. M. L. Wigley and J. R. de Wolde, 1997: An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. IPCC Technical Paper 2, J. T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, D. J. Griggs and K. Maskell (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 50 pp. IPCC-EIS (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Energy and Industry Subgroup), 1990: Energy and Industry Subgroup Report May 31, 1990. IPCC, Geneva (21P-2001 US EPA, Washington D.C.). Jain, A. K., H. S. Kheshgi, M. I. Hoffert and D. J. Wuebbles, 1995: Distribution of radiocarbon as a test of global carbon cycle models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 9, pp. 153–166. Joos, F., M. Bruno, R. Fink, U. Siegenthaler, T. F. Stocker, C. le Quéré and J. L. Sarmiento, 1996: An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake. Tellus, 48B, pp. 397-416. Kashiwagi, T., J. Bruggink, P.-N. Giraud, P. Khanna, W. R. Moomaw, 1996: Industry. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: Scientific-technical analyses, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 649-677. Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G. A. Meehl, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A. J. Weaver and T. M. L. Wigley, 1996: Climate models - Projections of future climate. In: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 285-357. Leggett, J. A., W. J. Pepper and R. J. Swart, 1992: Emissions scenarios for IPCC: An update. In: Climate Change, 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander and S. K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 69–95. Marland, G. and T. A. Boden, 1991: CO2 emissions-modern record, global. In: Trends '91: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T. A. Boden, R. J. Sepanski and F. W. Stoss (eds.), ORNL/CDIAC-46, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp. 386–389. Marland, G., R. J. Andres and T. A. Boden, 1994: Global, regional, and national, CO2 emissions 1950-1991. In: Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski and F. W. Stoss (eds.). ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp. 505-581. Nakicenovic, N., A. Grübler, H. Ishitani, T. Johansson, G. Marland, R. Moreira and H-H. Rogner, 1996: Energy primer. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 75-92. Pepper, W. J., J. A. Leggett, R. J. Swart, J. Wasson, J. Edmonds and I. Mintzer, 1992: Emissions Scenarios for the IPCC — An Update: Assumptions, Methodology, and Results, 115pp. Raper, S. C. B., T. M. L. Wigley and R. A. Warrick, 1996: Global sea level rise: Past and future. In: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences and Strategies, J. D. Milliman and B. U. Haq (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 11-45. Schimel, D. S., I. G. Enting, M. Heimann, T. M. L. Wigley, D. Raynaud, D. Alves and U. Siegenthaler, 1995: CO2 and the carbon cycle. In: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios, J. T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B. A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 35-71. Schimel, D. S., D. Alves, I. G. Enting, M. Heimann, F. Joos, D. Raynaud, and T. M. L. Wigley, 1996: CO2 and the carbon Appendix 1 RECENT EMISSIONS LIMITATION PROPOSALS As noted in the main text, a new set of emissions limitation proposals and withdrawals was put forward by the AGBM in the negotiating text (FCCC/AGBM/1997/3/Add.1 dated 22 April 1997) after the initial draft of this Technical Paper had been prepared. This negotiating text did not include the names of Parties making proposals; however we have added them here for clarity (Table A1). With one exception, where these proposals are expressed in specific quantitative terms, they all lie within the range of possibilities already considered. Currently, no proposal has been adopted, so any set of analyses of the implications of proposed emissions limitations can only be considered as a guide to the range of possible implications. We have shown in Section 7 how new situations may easily be quantified using the results already presented. Our judgment is, therefore, that no new calculations using the newer proposals are necessary, except for Proposal 13 (Philippines) (which, strictly speaking, is also unnecessary since its implications can easily be derived by extrapolation from the earlier presented material). It should be noted that some of these proposals relate to principles for constructing emissions limitation proposals rather than providing specific quantitative suggestions. In some of these cases, it is necessary to indicate unspecified targets and dates: we do this here using P1, P2, etc. for percentage changes for Annex I countries and [2000 + x], [2000 + y] and [2000 + z) for dates, where x, y and z are numbers of years. In the original document (FCCC/AGBM/1997/3/Add.1, dated 22 April 1997) many of the suggestions provide much more detail than given here. Emissions limitation proposals (FCCC/AGBM/1997/3/Add.1) Reduce CO2 emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 relative to 1990 The target for ghg emissions for individual countries in the year 19 18 Annex A lists the Parties currently listed in Annex I to the Convention but it is opened for other Parties, such as those joining the OECD. Annex X includes the Parties currently listed in Annex I to the Convention plus Croatia, Czech Republic, Liechtenstein, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Additions of developed countries or countries with economies in transition could be made. Note that Czechoslovakia is listed in Annex I to the Convention as one country. 20 This reduction target of "at least 7.5 per cent" was agreed in the Council Conclusions of 19 June 1997. Table A1. Emissions limitations proposals put forward after the initial draft of this Technical Paper (FCCC/AGBM/1997/3/Add. I, Emissions limitation proposals (a) Net emissions of ghg over [2000 + x¡] to [2000 + x2] year 1990 + 22 (or the average over some equivalent period). "Norway has, under the conditions of differentiation, comprehensiveness, flexibility and harmonization, proposed a common emission target of 10-15 per cent reduction of ghg emissions for Annex I Parties by 2010"21. Each Party may select one of the two specifications: Maintain an average ghg emissions level over 2000-2010 at As a first step a 10 per cent reduction of the total ghg emissions by 2010 relative to 1990. For n intervals each of y years, beginning in [2000 + x), ghg (a) Return ghg emissions to 1990 levels by 2000; (This proposal also includes emissions reduction penalty clauses (a) Each Annex A and B Party would be allocated a net ghg multiyear target referred to as an emissions budget; (b) The emissions budget of each Annex A Party would equal a fixed percentage of its 1990 emission times the number of years in the budget period; (c) The emissions budget of each Annex B Party would be proposed by that Party and agreed in a consultative process with existing Annex A and B Parties; (d) The emissions budget can be augmented through emissions trading, joint implementation for credit and banking. 21 Norwegian statement in AGBM's sixth session (Bonn, 3-7 March 1997). 22 Annex [*] shall be the list of Annex I Parties to the Convention and other Parties that may assume legally binding emission limitation commitments under the Protocol. 23 For the USA proposal, Annex A would include those Parties listed in Annex I to the Convention, plus those that join subsequently pursuant to Article 2. 24 Annex B would include those Parties not included in Annex A that indicate before adoption of the Protocol that they want to be included in this Annex, plus those that join subsequently pursuant to Article 2. Annex I Annex XX25 Annex X Emissions limitation proposals Parties that return ghg emissions to 1990 level by 2000 would reduce ghg emissions by 10 per cent relative to 1990 by 2005; reduce ghg emissions by 15 per cent relative to 1990 by 2010; and reduce ghg emissions by 20 per cent relative to 1990 by 2020. (This proposal also includes emissions reduction penalty clauses for Parties that fail to meet targets). (a) Return ghg emissions to 1990 levels by 2000; (b) Reduce ghg emissions by P, per cent relative to 1990 by 2005; and (c) Further reduce ghg emissions by P2 per cent relative to 1990 by 2010. (a) Return ghg emissions to 1990 levels by 2000; (b) Reduce ghg emissions by 20 per cent relative to 1990 by 2005; and (c) Further reduce ghg emissions by 20 per cent relative to 1990 by 2010. (This proposal also includes emissions reduction penalty clauses for Parties that fail to meet targets) (a) Reduce emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O together (weighted total, using GWP with a 100 year time horizon) Reduce emissions of CO2, CH, and N2O (aggregated, using Baseline ghg emissions levels should be established as the aver- Note that Brazil has put forward a target of a 30 per cent reduction of CO2. CH, and N2O by 2020 subsequent to this negotiating text. The original proposal is contained in FCCC/AGBM/1997/MISC.1/Add.3 and was included as Alternative I (para. 11) în FCCC/AGBM/1997/INF.1. |