Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mingating Climate Change Table 7: Selected examples of measures to mitigate GHG emissions from aircraft. 29 30 Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change should be tax-exempt (SAR II, 21.4.5.2), but does not preclude "charges" for enviromental purposes. Some airports have landing fees related to aircraft noise levels, and environmental charges could extend to cover aircraft GHG emissions (e.g., through a fuel surcharge). International cooperation, at least at a regional level, could discourage airlines from selecting airports for refueling or as long-haul hubs on the basis of relative fuel prices. In the long term, substantial reductions in CO2 and NO, emissions from aircraft may depend on RD&D along with market incentives to develop and introduce technologies and practices with lower energy intensity (SAR II, 21.3.1.3) and fuels based on renewable sources (SAR II, 21.3.3.3). At present, there are substantial institutional and technical barriers, including safety concerns, to the introduction of such technologies. 4.1 Introduction 4. INDUSTRIAL SECTORU In 1990, the global industrial sector12 directly consumed an estimated 91 EJ of end-use energy (including biomass) to produce $6.7 x 1012 of added economic value, which resulted in emissions of an estimated 1.80 Gt C. When industrial uses of electricity are added, primary energy attributable to the industrial sector was 161 EJ and 2.8 Gt C, or 47% of global CO2 releases (SAR II, 20.1; Tables Al-A4). In addition to energyrelated GHG emissions, the industrial sector is responsible for a number of process-related GHG emissions, although estimates vary in their reliability. Industrial process-related gases include the following (SAR II, 20.2.2): N2O from nitric acid and adipic acid (nylon) production; 4.2.1 Introducing New Technologies and Processes Although the efficiency of industrial processes has increased greatly during the past two decades, energy-efficiency improvements remain the major opportunity for reducing CO2 emissions. The greatest potential lies in Annex I countries with economies in transition and non-Annex I countries, where industrial energy intensity (either as EJ/ton of product or EJ/economic value) is typically two to four times greater than in OECD Annex I countries. Even so, many opportunities remain for additional gains in OECD Annex I countries. For example, the most efficient industrial processes today utilize three or four times the thermodynamic energy requirement for processes in the chemical and primary metals industry (SAR II, 20.3). The greatest gains in efficiency for OECD Annex I countries have occurred in chemicals, steel, aluminum, paper and petroleum refining, suggesting that it should be relatively easy to achieve even larger gains in these industries in non-Annex I and transitional economies. The industrial sector typically represents 25-30% of total During the first half of the 1990s, industrial sector carbon emissions from the European Union and the United States remained below their peak levels of 10–15 years earlier, while Japan's emissions remained relatively constant. The CO2 emissions of the industrial sector of non-Annex I countries continue to grow as the sector expands, even though energy intensity is dropping in some countries such as China. If energyintensity improvements continue in non-Annex I countries, and if decarbonization of energy use follows the pattern of Fuel Switching Switching to less carbon-intensive industrial fuels such as natural gas can reduce GHG emissions in a cost-effective manner, and such transitions are already underway in many regions. "This section is based on SAR II, Chapter 20, Industry (Lead Authors: T. Kashiwagi, J. Bruggink, P.-N. Giraud, P. Khanna and W. Moomaw). 12In the IS92 scenarios, hence in this paper, the global industrial sector includes industrial activities related to manufacturing, agriculture, mining and forestry. Figure 2: Fossil fuel CO, development path for the industrial manufacturing sectors of the United States of America, the 15 nations that now comprise the European Union (except the former East Germany), Japan, China, India and the former Soviet Union (USSR). The industrial sector is as defined by OECD. plus CO, associated with refineries and the fraction of electricity that is used by industry (SAR II. 20.2.3. Figure 20-1). The manufacturing sector is a subsector of all industrial activities described in this paper. However, care must be exercised to ensure that increased emissions from natural gas leakage do not offset these gains. The efficient use of biomass in steam and gas turbine cogeneration systems also can contribute to emissions reductions, as has been demonstrated in the pulp and paper, forest products and some agricultural industries (such as sugar cane) (SAR II. 20.4). Industria! process alterations can reduce all process-related GHGs significantly or even eliminate them entirely. Costeffective reductions of 50% of PFC emissions from aluminum production, and over 90% of NO, from nylon production have been achieved in the United States and Germany through voluntary programmes (SAR II, 20.3). 4.2.3 Cogeneration and Thermal Cascading Increasing industrial cogeneration and thermal cascading of waste heat have significant GHG reduction potential for fossil and biofuels. In many cases, combined heat and power or thermal cascading is economically cost-effective, as has been demonstrated in several Annex I countries. For example, coal-intensive industry has the potential to reduce its CO2 emissions by half, without switching fuels, through cogeneration. Thermal cascading, which involves the sequential capture and reuse of lower temperature heat for appropriate purposes, requires an industrial ecology approach that links several industrial processes and space and water conditioning needs, and may require inter-company cooperation and joint capital investment to realize the greatest gains (SAR II, 20.4). Replacing materials associated with high GHG emissions with alternatives that perform the same function can have significant benefits. For example, cement produces 0.34 t C per ton of cement (60% from energy used in production and 40% as a process gas). Shifting away from coal to natural gas or oil would lower the energy-related CO, emissions for cement production, and additional CO, reductions from other techniques (e.g., the fly-ash substitution and the use of waste fuels) are possible. Shifting to other construction materials could yield even greater improvements. A concrete floor has 21 times the embedded energy of a comparable wooden one, and generates CO, emissions in the calcination process as well. Denser materials also extract a GHG penalty when they are transported. The use of plants as a source of chemical feedstock can also reduce CO, emissions. Many large wood-products companies already produce chemicals in association with their primary timber or pulp and paper production. In India, a major effort to develop a "phytochemical" feedstock base has been underway. Lightweight packaging, for example, will cause lower transport-related emissions than heavier materials. Material substitution is not always straightforward, however, and depends on identifying substitutes with the qualities needed to critical specifications (SAR II, 20.3.4). Industrial feedstocks account for an estimated 16% of industrial Material Recycling When goods are made of materials whose manufacture consumes a considerable amount of energy, the recycling and Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change Government Procurement Programmes 33 Governments could establish procurement requirements for products that minimize GHG emissions in their manufacture and use. If drawn flexibly, government purchasing criteria would stimulate suppliers to develop low GHG-emitting products that met both governmental and larger market needs. reuse of these goods can save not only energy but GHGs 4.3.1.2 released to the atmosphere. Primary materials release about four times the CO, of secondary (recycled) materials in steel, copper, glass and paper production. For aluminum, this figure is substantially higher. Carbon savings of 29 Mt are estimated for a 10% increase in OECD recycling of these materials. Recycling can involve restoring the material to its original use or "cascading" the material by successively downgrading its use into applications requiring lower quality materials. Emphasis is needed on technological innovation 4.3.2 to upgrade the quality of recycled materials (SAR II, 20.4.2.4). A variety of potential sector-specific measures, discussed briefly below and in Table 8, could encourage improvements in energy efficiency and reductions in process-related emissions (SAR II, 20.5; SAR III, 11). In addition, economy-wide instruments (e.g., phaseout of energy subsidies and adoption of carbon taxes) could affect emissions in the sector by encouraging processes that are less energy- or fossil fuel-intensive. These economy-wide instruments are not discussed here, because they are covered in Section 9, Economic Instruments. 4.3.1 Market-based Programmes 4.3.1.1 Incentives Tax incentives could be designed for OECD Annex I country firms to encourage continued innovation in energy-efficient and low GHG-emitting processes. Most industrial processes have a relatively short lifetime, on the order of a decade or less, while facilities are used for several decades. Hence, there are large opportunities to rapidly introduce low-emitting technology into the manufacturing process as part of normal capital-stock turnover. Under present circumstances, where GHGs are uncosted externalities, there are no compelling reasons beyond profit maximization for companies to choose a lower GHGemission strategy over a higher one when they are planning new processes or products. Even when it is cost-effective to introduce low GHG-emitting technologies, there may be barriers to doing so. Hence, there is a need for additional incentives to encourage firms in OECD Annex I countries to utilize the natural cycle of capital stock replacement to introduce less GHGintensive technology and production facilities to achieve further reductions. Perhaps accelerating depreciation taxes might encourage such a shift. In addition, financial incentives that encourage industry to adopt combined heat and power facilities, use more renewables, or use more secondary materials could accelerate a further lowering of emissions. Even if incentives are not provided, removing impediments to industrial cogeneration of electricity and 4.3.2.1 Regulatory Programmes Emissions Standards and Offsets Setting industry- and product-specific GHG emission standards, like the energy-efficiency standards for appliances or vehicles, can bring about more certain compliance. Efficiency or performance standards can help to overcome a variety of barriers and shift production to lower GHG-emitting industrial practices. These barriers can include lack of information about high-efficiency products, financial analyses or investment criteria that overemphasize investment costs and de-emphasize operating costs, or difficulty in obtaining more efficient products through suppliers. However, reaching agreement about the appropriate standards for different types of equipment in different applications can be difficult, while monitoring and enforcement costs may be high and may raise the price to consumers. Moreover, use of regulations could run counter to the recent emphasis on use of flexible approaches. Voluntary agreements in the United States and Europe have been effective in achieving energy and GHG reductions in industries that have been encouraged to manufacture or install efficient lighting, computers, office equipment and building shells. These include negotiated but voluntary targets for achieving emissions reductions, voluntary adoption of high-efficiency products or processes, cooperative RD&D efforts, and agreements to monitor and report emissions reductions based on voluntary actions. Voluntary agreements with industry groups to improve general environmental quality could be expanded to include GHG reduction (e.g., expansion of government-industry environmental covenants in The Netherlands), as could the ISO 14000 process. 13 Domestic and international supplier requirements that ISO 14000 is an independently certifiable environmental management system established by the non-governmental International |