1.2 Scope and Organization!

This Technical Paper provides a sectoral analysis of technologies and practices that will reduce growth in GHG emissions and of measures that can stimulate and accelerate the use of these technologies and practices, with separate consideration of broad economic policy instruments. The paper focuses on technologies and measures for the countries listed in Annex I of the FCCC, while noting information as appropriate for use by nonAnnex I countries. Analysis of these technologies and measures is provided in terms of a framework of criteria, which was authorized by IPCC-XII (Mexico City, 11-13 September 1996).

Technologies and measures are examined over three time periods, with a focus on the short term (present to 2010) and the medium term (2010-2020), but also including discussion of longer-term (e.g., 2050) possibilities and opportunities. Many of the data in the SAR were summarized as global values; for this report, data for the Annex I countries also are provided to the extent possible, as a group or categorized into OECD countries and countries with economies in transition. All of the information and conclusions contained in this report are consistent with the SAR and with previously published IPCC reports. The Technical Paper begins with a discussion of three energy end-use sectors-commercial/residential/institutional buildings, transportation and industry. These discussions are followed by a section on the energy supply and transformation sector, which produces and transforms primary energy to supply secondary energy to the energy end-use sectors.2 Technologies and measures that can be adopted in the agriculture, forestry and waste management sectors are then discussed. Measures that will affect emissions mainly in individual sectors (e.g., fuel taxes in the transportation sector) are covered in the sectoral discussions listed above; broader measures affecting the national economy (e.g., energy or carbon taxes) are discussed in a final section on economic instruments.

The paper identifies and evaluates different options on the basis of three criteria (see Box 2). Because of the difficulty of estimating the economic and market potential of different technologies and the effectiveness of different measures in achieving

emission reduction objectives, and because of the danger of double-counting the results achieved by measures that tap the same technical potentials, the paper does not estimate total global emissions reductions. Nor does the paper recommend adoption of any particular approaches. Each Party to the Convention will decide, based on its needs, obligations and national priorities, what is appropriate for its own national circumstances.

1.3

Sources of Information

The Technical Paper has been drafted in a manner consistent with the rules of procedure for IPCC Technical Papers agreed to at IPCC-XI (Rome, 11-15 December 1995) and further interpreted at IPCC-XII. The contributors and participating governments of the IPCC recognize that a simplification of the review process is necessary to enable the Technical Papers to be completed in a time frame that meets the needs of the Parties of the FCCC. Therefore, materials agreed to be appropriate for use in this Technical Paper are restricted to information derived from IPCC reports and relevant portions of references cited in these reports, and models and scenarios used to provide information in IPCC reports. In accordance with these requirements, information and studies that were not referenced or cited in any IPCC report are not included in the discussion. Important information on potential reductions from energy savings or as captured through particular measures is not always available in the literature; in the absence of such information, the authors of this report have in certain instances presented their own estimates and professional judgment in evaluating the performance of these measures.

The scope of this paper was guided by several UNFCCC documents prepared for the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM). including FCCC/AGBM/1995/4 and PCCC/AGBM/1996/2.

? Primary energy is the chemical energy embodied in fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) or biomass, the potential energy of a water reservoir, the electromagnetic energy of solar radiation, and the energy released in nuclear reactors. For the most part, primary energy is transformed into electricity or fuels such as gasoline, jet fuel, heating oil or charcoal-called secondary energy. The enduse sectors of the energy system provide energy services such as cooking, illumination, comfortable indoor climate, refrigerated storage, transportation and consumer goods using primary and secondary energy forms, as appropriate.

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development and deployment of these technologies and practices, no one measure will be sufficient for the timely development, adoption and diffusion of mitigation options. Rather, a combination of measures adapted to national, regional and local conditions will be required. These measures must reflect the widely differing institutional, social, cultural, economic, technical and natural resource endowments in individual countries and regions, and the optimal mix will vary from country to country. The combinations of measures should aim to reduce barriers to the commercialization, diffusion and transfer of GHG mitigation technologies; mobilize financial resources; support capacity building in developing countries and countries with economies in transition; and induce behavioral changes. A number of relevant measures may be introduced for reasons other than climate mitigation, such as raising efficiency or addressing local/regional economic and environmental issues.

supply technologies in national or regional markets. In addition, information and education may be instrumental in shaping socio-economic practices as well as behavioral attitudes toward the way energy services are provided and demanded. The ability of information and education programmes to induce changes in GHG emissions is difficult to quantify.

Training and capacity building may be prerequisites for decision-making related to climate change and for formulating appropriate policies and measures to address this issue. Training and capacity building can promote timely dissemination of information at all levels of society, facilitating acceptance of new regulations or voluntary agreements. Capacity building also can help catalyze and accelerate the development and utilization of sustainable energy supply and use technologies.

In order for successful GHG abatement techniques and technologies to be diffused to a wide range of users, there needs to be a concerted effort to disseminate information about their technical, managerial and economic aspects. In addition to information availability, training programmes are needed to ensure that successful programmes can be implemented. There is relatively little international transfer of knowledge to nonAnnex I countries. Including information and training in loan and foreign assistance packages by aid donors and lending institutions could be an effective mechanism. International agencies such as the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) might take on major information and training responsibilities for GHG-related technology transfer. International and national trade organizations might also be effective in providing information and training.

Information and education measures include efforts to provide information to decision makers with the intention of altering behavior. They can help overcome incomplete knowledge of economic, environmental and other characteristics of promising technologies that are currently available or under development. Information measures have aided the development and commercialization of new energy demand-management and

International Coordination and Institutions

Equity issues, as well as international economic competitiveness considerations, may require that certain measures be anchored in regional or international agreements, while other policies can be implemented unilaterally. As a result, a key issue is the extent to which any particular measure might require or benefit from "common action" and what form such action might take. The level of common action could range from a group of countries adopting common measures, coordinating the implementation of similar measures or working to achieve common aims, with flexibility in the technologies, measures and policies used. Other forms of common action could include the development of a common menu of useful actions from which each country would select measures best suited to its situation, or the development of coordination protocols for consistent monitoring and accounting of emissions reductions or for the conduct and monitoring of international tradable emissions initiatives.

Equity considerations

3. Administrative, Institutional and Political Considerations

Administrative burden

Consistency with other public policies

Replicability

issues), and include elements from all three categories in the discussion of each technology and measure (see tables within respective sections). Because of the limited length and broad scope of the paper, every option cannot be evaluated using each detailed criterion listed. In particular, it is difficult to judge precisely the effectiveness of various instruments in achieving emissions reduction objectives, the economic costs at both the project and macro-economic levels, and other factors, such as other types of environmental effects resulting from the implementation of various options. In some instances, the authors were unable to quantify the cost-effectiveness or fully evaluate other cost considerations noted in the criteria for evaluation. Such cost evaluation could not be completed because costs depend on the specific technical option promoted and the means of implementation; evaluation of the costs of measures has not been well-documented by Annex I countries, and is not available in the literature at this time. Assessing the performance of any of the wide range of technologies and measures is further complicated by the need to consider implementation issues that can affect performance, and by the likelihood that the performance of measures will vary when combined into different packages.

The criteria used by governments for assessing technologies and measures-and the priority placed on each criterion-may

although their share of global fossil fuel carbon emissions has been declining. Non-Annex I countries account for a smaller portion of total global CO, emissions than Annex I countries, but projections indicate that the share of the non-Annex I countries will increase significantly in all scenarios by 2050.

The mitigation potential of many of the technologies and measures is estimated using a range of baseline projections provided by the IPCC IS92 "a," "c." and "e" scenarios for 2010, 2020 and 2050 (see Tables Al-A4 in Appendix A). The IS92 scenarios (IPCC 1992. 1994) provide a current picture of global energy use and GHG emissions, as well as a range of future projections without mitigation policies, based on assumptions and trend information available in late 1991. By providing common and consistent baselines against which the authors compare percentage reductions in energy use and related GHG emissions, the scenarios make possible rough estimates of the potential emission reduction contributions of different technologies and measures. The rapid changes in national economic trends during the early 1990s for several of the Annex I countries with economies in transition were not captured in these scenarios, hence are not accounted for in quantitative elements of these analyses.

Across the IS92 scenarios, global energy needs are projected to continue to grow, at least through the first half of the next century. Without policy intervention, CO2 emissions will grow, although this growth will be slower than the expected increase in energy consumption, because of the assumed "normal" rate of decarbonization of energy supply. However, the global decarbonization rate of energy will not fully offset the average annual 2% growth rate of global energy needs.

In 1990, the residential, commercial and institutional buildings sector was responsible for roughly one-third of global energy use and associated carbon emissions both in the Annex I countries and globally. In that year, buildings in Annex I countries used 86 EJ of primary energy and emitted 1.4 Gt C, accounting for about 75% of global buildings energy use (112 EJ, with associated emissions of 1.9 Gt C). However, the share of primary energy use and associated emissions attributable to Annex I countries is projected to drop; the IS92a scenario projects that global buildings-related emissions from Annex I countries will be about 70% in 2020 and slightly over 50% in 2050.

Greater use of available, cost-effective technologies to increase energy efficiency in buildings can lead to sharp reductions in emissions of CO, and other GHGs resulting from the production, distribution and use of fossil fuels and electricity needed for all energy-using activities that take place within residential, commercial and institutional buildings. The buildings sector is characterized by a diverse array of energy end uses and varying sizes and types of building shells that are constructed in all climatic regimes. Numerous technologies and measures have been developed and implemented to reduce energy use in buildings, especially during the past two decades in Annex I countries.

Table 1 outlines measures and technical options to mitigate GHG emissions in the buildings sector, and provides a brief description of the climate and environmental benefits as well as economic and social effects (including costs associated with implementa tion of measures), and administrative, institutional and political issues associated with each measure. Tables 2 and 3 provide estimates of global and Annex I, respectively, emissions reductions associated with both energy-efficient technologies and the energy-efficiency measures. The estimates for the reductions from energy-efficient technologies are based on studies described in the SAR, using expert judgment to extrapolate to the global situation and to estimate reductions in 2020 and 2050, because most of the studies in the SAR estimate energy savings only for 2010. The estimates for the reductions from energy-efficient technologies captured through measures are based on expert judgment regarding policy effectiveness. These two categories of reductions-"potential reductions from energy-efficient technologies" and "potential reductions from energy-efficient technologies captured through measures"-are not additive; rather, the second category represents an estimate of that portion of the first that can be captured by the listed measures.

and cooling systems, lighting and all plug loads, including office equipment) and reducing heating and cooling energy losses through improvements in building thermal integrity (SAR II, 22.4.1, 22.4.2). Other effective methods to reduce emissions include urban design and land-use planning that facilitate lower energy-use patterns and reduce urban heat islands (SAR II, 22.4.3); fuel switching (SAR II, 22.4.1.1, Table 22-1); improving the efficiency of district heating and cooling systems (SAR II, 22.4.1.1.2, 22.4.2.1.2); using more sustainable building techniques (SAR II, 22.4.1.1); ensuring correct installation, operation and equipment sizing; and using building energy management systems (SAR II, 22.4.2.1.2). Improving the combustion of solid biofuels or replacing them with a liquid or gaseous fuel are important means for reducing non-CO, GHG emissions. The use of biomass is estimated (with considerable uncertainty) to produce emissions of 100 Mt C/yr in CO2-equivalent, mainly from products of incomplete combustion that have greenhouse warming potential (SAR II, Executive Summary).

The potential for cost-effective improvement in energy efficiency in the buildings sector is high in all regions and for all major end uses. Projected energy demand growth is generally considerably higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries due to higher population growth and expected greater increases in energy services per capita (SAR II, 22.3.2.2). Although development patterns vary significantly among countries and regions, general trends in Annex I countries with economies in transition and non-Annex I countries include increasing urbanization (SAR II, 22.3.2.2), increased housing area and per capita energy use (SAR II, 22.3.2.2, 22.3.2.3). increasing electrification (SAR II, 22.3.2.2), transition from biomass fuels to fossil fuels for cooking (SAR II, 22.4.1.4), increased penetration of appliances (SAR II, 22.3.2.3), and rising use of air conditioning (SAR II, 22.4.1.1). For simplification, the authors assume that by 2020 urban areas in non-Annex I countries will have end-use distributions similar to those now found in Annex I countries, so that energy-saving options and measures for most appliances, lighting, air conditioning and office equipment will be similar for urban areas in both sets of countries. The exception is heating which is likely to be a large energy user only in a few of the non-Annex I countries, such as China (SAR II, 22.2.1, 22.4.1.1.1). In addition, it is assumed that the range of cost-effective energy-savings options will be similar for Annex I and non-Annex I countries by 2020.

This section is based on SAR II, Chapter 22, Mitigation Options
for Human Settlements (Lead Authors: M. Levine, H. Akbari,
J. Busch, G. Dutt, K. Hogan, P. Komor, S. Meyers, H. Tsuchiya,
G. Henderson, L. Price, K. Smith and Lang Siwei).

⚫ Global energy use and emissions values are based on IS92 scenarios. 7 Tables 2 and 3 include only carbon emissions resulting from the use of fuels sold commercially. They do not include the large quantities of biomass fuels used in developing countries for cooking. Fuel switching from biomass fuels for cooking to sustainable, renewable fuels such as biogas or alcohol in developing countries can reduce these emissions (SAR II, 22.4.1.4).