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The Southeastern Climate Review is a technical and public service publication of the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Circulation is approximately 4,500.

1989 1 (1) Background on Climatic Change. 30pp. 1989 1 (2) Hurricane Camille. 30pp.

1989 1 (3) Hurricane Hugo. 30pp.

1989 1 (4) Severe Cold Outbreaks. 30pp.

1990 2 (1) Drought Preparedness. 30pp.

1990 2 (2) 1990 Atlantic Hurricane Recap. 30pp. 1990 2 (3) El Niño and Florida Wildfires. 30pp. 1991 2 (4) Southeastern Growing Seasons. 30pp.

1992 3 (1) Heavy Rainfall Events. 30pp.

1992 3 (2) Climate Change and Fishery Harvest 30pp.

WORLD CLIMATE REVIEW

A quarterly national publication with a circulation of 15,000 reviewing current science and policy trends relating to Global Climatic Change. Publication began in Fall, 1992, and terminated in Spring, 1995. Each issue averaged 26 pages.

GOVERNMENT ADVISORY SERVICE

Governor's Inquiry--1980 drought

Governor's Inquiry-1981 drought

Virginia Farm Bureau--1983 drought

Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer

Services-Avian Influenza, 1983-4

Virginia Air Pollution Control Board--Acid Precipitation, 1984-1987

Governor's Task Force the Disposal of High-Level Nuclear Waste. 1986

Governor's Task Force on Drought, 1986-present

Virginia Office of Economic Development, 1986-present
Virginia Film Office, 1986-present

Virginia Division of Forestry, 1982-1987

Virginia Water Resources Research Center, 1986

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Change Initiative, 1987

U.S. Geological Survey, 1988, 1991

United Nations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Reviewer, 1990; Contributor and
Reviewer, 1992; Contributor, 1995 update)

Governor's Representative, Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative

FINANCIAL SUPPORT (OVER $10,000)

1980-Present. Research Faculty and Staff Support, State Climatology Office. $1,360,000. Current biennial (Active) portion: $226,000 [Active]

1981-1985. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Prediction models for Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks. $133,000.

1981-1982. United States Department of Agriculture, Economics Research Service. Statistical-Dynamic Models for Virginia Corn and Soybean Yields. $25,000.

1982-1984. United States Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sea Grant Program. High Resolution Weather Forecasts for Chesapeake Bay and Estuarine Virginia. $84,000.

1983-1985. National Aeronautic and Space Administration. Sea Breeze-Induced Mesoscale Systems and Severe Weather. $26,000.

1985-1986. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Historical fluctuations of Gypsy Moth Populations and Climate. $18,000.

1986-1987. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Objective Characterization of the Relationship between Seasonal Wind Regimes and the Recruitment of Croaker and Flounder. $41,000 1986-1988. Commonwealth of Virginia, State Air Pollution Control Board. Origin and Destination of Pollutant-bearing Airstreams Entering and Exiting the Commonwealth of Virginia. S140,000.

1989-1990. Jet Stream Alterations Induced by Anthropogenerated Sulfur Emissions. Cyprus Minerals Company. $40,000.

1989-1993 U.S. Department of Commerce/Southeastern Regional Climate Center. Research Publication for the Southeastern Climate Center. $135,000. (Active)

1991-1992. Anonymous. Research Support for Climatic Change. $50,000.

1992-1995. Edison Electric Institute. Literature Review of Climatic Change and Updates. $25,000 1992-1993. Western Fuels Association. Research on Global Climatic Change. $63,000

1994-96. Gesamtverband des Deutschen Stenkohlenbergbaus, Fed. Rep. of Germany, $98,000

1995-1998. Commonwealth of Virginia, Department of Environmental Quality. Research on science and policy on global warming. $90.000 (Active)

1996-1999. U.S. Department of Commerce. Cold Air Volume and Persistence in the Mid-Atlantic Region. $90,000 (Acuve]

1996-1998. U.S. Department of Energy. Greenhouse Influences on Diurnal Wanning and Cooling Rates. $100,000 [Active]

Currently Active total: $510,000.

LAST UPDATE 7/97

Statement of financial support from the U.S. government:

1996-1999. U.S. Department of Commerce. Cold Air Volume and Persistence in the Mid-Atlantic Region. $90,000.

1996-1998. U.S. Department of Energy. Greenhouse Influences on Diurnal Warming and Cooling Rates. $100,000.

MALARIA AND GLOBAL WARMING

Chairman CALVERT. Thank you, Doctor. We have a few questions that I'm sure our panel would like to ask and I'll start out. Dr. Watson, a number of Administration officials have made statements about the dire consequences of global warming and I'd like to explore the scientific basis for some of those statements. I'd like to ask you some questions about why you feel this way.

First, the gentlelady, Kathleen McGinty, the Chair of the President's Council on Environmental Quality, said that we are already seeing diseases like malaria at our borders. Could you tell me if you believe human-induced global warming is today causing some kind of increase in malaria at our borders and how many scientists really believe that?

Mr. WATSON. The Mr. Chairman, there have certainly been demonstrated increases of malaria in areas which have not been seen before. At such-in Africa it is certainly at much higher elevations, we've never seen before, which is totally consistent with the theory, and, indeed, we're starting to see it in other parts of the world. Whether we see it exactly on our borders, I cannot comment on the data she's suggesting. But there's definitely been changes in some of the vector-borne diseases consistent with

Chairman CALVERT. And you believe that the global warming is the cause?

Mr. WATSON. It's consistent

Chairman CALVERT. Human use, global warming is the cause of that?

Mr. WATSON. It's totally consistent with the observed changes in climate.

Chairman CALVERT. Dr. Michaels, did you have any comment on

that?

Mr. MICHAELS. Malaria was endemic in the United States in the 19th Century and early 20th Century when the mean temperature of the United States was about a degree Fahrenheit colder than it is today. What wiped out malaria was sanitation and technology. With regard to malaria moving up altitudinally, I draw your attention to the fact that people are moving up altitudinally, too. There is a population change that is related to the spread of malaria. But, nonetheless, the important factor is that people who live in vibrant economies do not suffer these diseases in the same way.

And I'll leave with you with the great dengue fever outbreak along the Mexican border at Reynosa. A couple of years ago, there were 2,000 cases across the river and only 7 in the United States. What do you think happened? Do you think the mosquitoes just stopped at the Rio Grande?

(Laughter.]

I don't think so. It was the fact that we have sanitation and high technology. Don't take money away from people because they need to invest in the technologies that ensure better health.

HEAT WAVES AND GLOBAL WARMING

Chairman CALVERT. Dr. Watson, continuing on this line of questioning, on the July 28 briefing, Ms. McGinty also talked about the 1995 heatwave in Chicago. Do you believe that human-induced

global warming caused that heatwave and how many scientists believe that?

Mr. WATSON. No, one can't attribute any single heatwave or any single flood to global warming. There's natural climate variability. What can be said was that extreme climatic event where it's hot both day and night and the combination of the increased temperatures, especially at night, with the increased relative humidity clearly had an adverse affect, increased the heat stress mortality on the poorest people that didn't have air conditioning. I would totally agree with Pat Michaels and the previous speaker that in a rich society, where society has the best of technologies, you can protect oneself from either dengue fever, malaria, or heat stress mortality. There is no question, though, that particular Chicago event caused heat stress mortality. You cannot attribute it to specifically global warming.

Chairman CALVERT. Dr. Michaels

Mr. MICHAELS. Let me just point-I used to live in Chicago so I get an extra chip on this one. In the early 1950's, there was an exceedingly hot summer where, in fact, the weather-related mortality was greater than it was in 1995. But I'm-I want to tell you about what happens in Chicago when there's weather-related death. More people on the south side die than on the north side. If you know your Chicago, you know that Chicago is poorer on the south side than it is on the north side. In the 1995 event, the deaths were equally distributed between the north side and the south side. Why? Because there was a power failure that affected the north side. So, when you take out the technology that people use in order to create a better environment, that's where you get weather-related death.

TECHNOLOGY AND ADAPTATION

Mr. SMITH. May I just follow up on that just very briefly? Because I think we've done a lot of work on the adaptations to the CFC ban. Americans are now beginning to realize that ban is very expensive. If you've got an older car and you try to refresh your freon, you find yourself in great expense today, in America. The reason that we have trouble in these climatic disturbances has nothing to do with climate. It has to do, as I think quite eloquently Patrick pointed out, the fact that wealthier is healthier and therefore poorer is less healthy. The kind of measures we're talking about by suppressing wealth development and economic development around the world, by moving us away from fossil-related fuels to these magic technologies that seem to be coming about everywhere, is exactly the kind of things that are going to lead to many more south-side Chicago disasters. People don't have enough energy use in the world and suppressing energies around the world, which is the effect to these people whether they want to be honest or not, is not going to help the world's health.

BLIZZARDS AND GLOBAL WARMING

Chairman CALVERT. Okay, I just-continuing on, in an interview on Fox News on October 26, just recently, Ms. McGinty said that the blizzard in the Midwest that weekend was the upshot of cli

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