the major share of human-derived emission of nitrous oxide, a gas implicated in the greenhouse effect. : Plants that can better tolerate drought and temperature cycles could double the fraction of land available for crops. Bioprocesses could recover fuel from municipal and agricultural wastes. Agricultural plants and bioprocessing could yield polymers with no petroleum feedstock. 8.3 Perspectives Change happens slowly. The typical career for both technical and operating individuals is in the range of 20 to 30 years. The typical useful life of a large scale chemical plant is in the range of 10 to 25 years first invention to peak inventive activity ~ 10 years - 30 years - 20 years 60 years There are other "barriers" on energy use on the horizon besides the impact on the environment. One possible barrier for the US is the direct energy import/export deficit ($49 billion in 1995). This is a major cause of our balance of payments deficit of $160 billion (DOE, 1996). The indirect energy import/export deficit as represented by aluminum ingots and steel adds to this. There is no recent analysis, but DOE (1989) estimated that in 1984, the indirect energy trade imbalance contributed ~ 5% of the US energy budget. This would suggest that the total energy import/export deficit is in excess of $60 billion. "Bottomline" on Section 8: => A historical look suggests that technology improvement offers more leverage for energy use reduction than energy pricing. REFERENCES Argonne National Laboratory (Ron Sutherland), Guidance Paper (memorandum providing bases for this study), Washington DC, (March 22, 1996) Battelle CMA (E. S. Lipinsky and J. D. Ingham). Brief Characterizations of the Top 50 US (E. S. Lipinsky and R. Wesson), Characterizations of the Top 12 US Commodity US Chemical Industry Statistical Handbook 1995, Chemical Manufacturers Assoc., US Chemical Industry Statistical Handbook 1991, Chemical Manufacturers Assoc., C&EN, various, American Chemical Society, Washington DC DOE Facts and Figures for Chemical R&D, August 28, 1995 Weak Fourth Quarter Doesn't Halt Growth in European Chemical Earnings, March 25, 1996 Advertisement for Saudi Basic Industries Corp., April 29, 1996 Facts and Figures for the Chemical Industry, June 24, 1996 Monthly Energy Review, Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy, Manufacturing Consumption of Energy 1991, Energy Information Administration, US Energy's Role in International trade: Structural Changes and Competitiveness, Office of Policy Planning and Analysis, US Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC, (1989) Haustein, H., and E. Neuwirth, Long Waves in World Industrial Production, Energy What's Ahead in '96 - Part 2, Hydrocarbon Processing, Gulf Publishing, Houston, Texas (March 1996) Morrison, R. E., (of National Science Foundation), private communications, (April 10, 1996 and May 6, 1996) Ross, M.H. and D.E. Steinmeyer, Energy for Industry, Scientific American, 26, 88-98. (1990) Ross, M.H., P. Thimmapuram, R. E. Fisher, and W Maciorowski, Long-Term Industrial Energy Forecasting Model, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Ill. (1993) Steinmeyer, D.E. Take your Pick: Capital or Energy, Chemtech, 188-192, (1982) Energy Use in Manufacturing, in The Energy-Environmental Connection, Island Turbulent Heat Exchanger AT and AP, Chemical Engineering Progress, 49-55 (June, 1996) Process Energy Conservation, in Kirk-Othmer Encyclopedia of Chemical Swift, T. K., Energy and the US Chemical Industry, CMA, Washington DC, (1995) Weinberger, Samuel, Ethylene -- Hangon and Enjoy the Ride, in 1996 Houston Chemic? |