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November 1996: Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Cli-

mate Change, R T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.),

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland

Harvey, D., J. Gregory, M. Hooert, A. Jain, M. Lal, R. Leemans, S.

Raper, T.M.L. Wigley, and J. De Wolde, February 1997: An Introduc-

tion to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment

Report-IPCC Technical Paper II. J. T. Houghton, L. Gylvan Meira

Filho, D.J. Griggs, and K. Maskell (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland

Schimel, D., M. Grubb, F. Joos, R. Kaufmann, R. Moss, W. Organa,

R. Richels, and T. Wigley, February 1997: Stabilization of Atmospheric

Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological and Socio-Economic Implica-

tions-IPCC Technical Paper III. J. T. Houghton, L. Gylvan Meira

Filho, D.J. Griggs, and K. Maskell (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland

Wigley, T.M.L., A.K. Jain, F. Joos, B.S. Nyenzi, and P.R. Shukla, October

1997: Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations-IPCC Tech-

nical Paper 4. J. T. Houghton, L. Gylvan Meira Filho, D.J. Griggs,

and M. Noguer (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

Geneva, Switzerland

November 1997: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment

of Vulnerability Summary for Policymakers, RT. Watson, M.C.

Zinyowera, R.H. Moss, and D.J. Dokken (eds.), Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland

R.A. Kerr, "Greenhouse Forecasting Still Cloudy," Science 276, 1040,
(1997)

G. Taubes, "Apocalypse Not," Science 278, 1004, (1997)

Jacoby, H.D., R.G. Prinn, and R. Schmalensee, "Needed: A Realistic

Strategy for Global Warming," MIT Joint Program on the Science and

Policy of Global Change, Report No. 21, August 1997

889

APPENDIX 3: ADDITIONAL MATERIALS FOR THE RECORD (CONTINUED)
October 9, 1997: Countdown to Kyoto, Part II: Economics of a Global
Climate Change Agreement (Continued)

Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Effi
cient and Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond, Interlabora-
tory [Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, Pacific Northwest and Argonne
National Laboratories], ORNAL/CON-444, September, 1997

Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Effi-

cient and Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond, Appendices,

Interlaboratory [Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, Pacific Northwest and

Argonne National Laboratories], ORNAL/CON-444, Appendices,

LBNL 40533, September, 1997

Technology Opportunities to Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Pre-
pared by National Laboratory Directors for the U.S. Department of
Energy, October, 1997

Technology Opportunities to Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Ap-
pendix B-Technology Pathways Characterization, Prepared by Na-
tional Laboratory Directors for the U.S. Department of Energy, Octo-
ber, 1997

"Economic Effects of Global Climate Change Policies," Results of the
Research Efforts of the Interagency Analytical Team. June 1997
(Draft-May 30, 1997)

"The Impact of Carbon Mitigation Strategies on Energy Markets, the
National Economy, Industry, and Regional Economies," prepared for
UMWA-BCOA LMPCP Fund by DRI/McGraw-Hill, July 1997.

1241

1733

1844

1961

2073

Summary of "The Impact of Carbon Mitigation Strategies on State Econo-
mies," prepared for UMWA-BCOA LMPCP Fund by DRI/McGraw-Hill,
August 1997

"Economic Implications of the Adoption of Limits on Carbon Emissions

from Industrialized Countries," prepared for American Automobile

Manufacturers Association by Charles River Associates, November 11,

1997

"Global Warming: The Economic Cost of Early Action-National Impacts,
prepared for American Petroleum Institute by WEFA, Inc., 1997

Robert E. Scott, "Accelerating Globalization? The Economic of Climate

Change Policies on U.S. Workers," Economic Policy Institute, Septem-

ber 17, 1997

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Remarks by President Clinton on Global Climate Change, National Geo-

graphic Society, Washington, DC, October 22, 1997

President Clinton Announces the United States Climate Change Policy,
National Geographic Society, Washington, DC, October 22, 1997: White
House Background Information and Fact Sheets

2396

COUNTDOWN ΤΟ KYOTO, PART I: THE SCIENCE OF A GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 1997

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE,

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT,

Washington, DC.

The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:05 a.m., in room 2318, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Ken Calvert, Chairman of the Subcommittee, presiding.

Chairman CALVERT. This hearing of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee will come to order.

Eight weeks from now, 169 nations, including the United States, will meet in Kyoto, Japan, for the third conference on climate change sponsored by the United Nations. There the United States will be under pressure to sign a treaty mandating cutbacks in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years. Such a commitment could have a profound effect on the economic growth we are enjoying today, while allowing other nations who will not sign the treaty, such as China, to gain an economic advantage over the United States. Even the most recent report on this matter issued by the Department of Energy last week, said only by raising the price of energy through the increased taxes could we come close to meeting the expected targets. Before we take this step, we should be sure that there are compelling reasons to do so.

The foundation for this treaty is the belief that human influence on the Earth's climate will be responsible for a warming trend over the next 150 years, that this is harmful, that it must be stopped and that, in fact, it can be stopped by reducing greenhouse gas

emissions.

Today, we will explore the state of the science behind this assertion, our ability to predict the impact human action will have on the Earth's climate, and what research should be pursued to reduce uncertainties.

At our second hearing on Thursday, we will explore the differing opinions regarding the economic impact of the proposed treaty.

There will be no attempt at these hearings to prove that the Earth's climate is getting warmer, cooling, or staying the same; although there have been many opinions about that in the last 20 years. We know from thousands of years of climate history that change is the order of things.

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